OCTOBER 2023 HAMAS MILITARY STRIKES IN ISRAEL

OPENING OF THE SECOND FRONT IN THE CONFLICT FOR GLOBAL SUPREMACY

“The most concerning finding of the spreading war clouds from Ukraine to West Asia, South Asia, extending to South China Sea, and Taiwan, are the emerging links that point to a joint Sino-Russia challenge to the US led West Bloc geopolitical supremacy.” – Col RS Sidhu 

Backdrop

Russia commenced its ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine on 24 February 2022, after extensive military and economic planning to cater for the anticipated reactions from the US led West Bloc. Twenty months down the line, the Ukraine war has now entered a phase of military stalemate, with the failure of the much hyped Ukraine counter-offensive. The counter-offensive was heavily supported by NATO by providing military equipment and munitions, imparting military training, and sharing of battlefield intelligence.

The war in the economic domain is also not very favourable to the US led West Bloc, with Russian economy showing no signs of folding up. In fact, the EU economies are showing more signs of strain in the face of Russian weaponisation of energy resources.

Political consensus within the NATO is showing visible cracks with Robert Fico, former Prime Minister led Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD), emerging as the largest party in the just held general elections in Slovakia. Robert Fico has fought the elections on the agenda of terminating military support to Ukraine in its fight with Russia. The impending October 2023 general elections in Poland is resulting in political parties distancing themselves from supporting the war effort in Ukraine, sensing public disenchantment against the nearly 1 million Ukraine refugees in Poland. Hungary is already, at best, a reluctant supporter of the NATO military aid to Ukraine. The US domestic politics compulsions have forced adoption of an interim budget which does not include fiscal support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. An unstable rear, and the first signs of onset of war fatigue amongst the key supporters of Ukraine, clearly indicate a very uncertain future for the Volodymyr Zelensky regime in Ukraine.

Discernible Sino-Russia Strategy

Against the above backdrop, the Sino-Russia strategy to challenge the US led West Bloc global supremacy is discernible from the broadening the military conflict horizon, both north and southwards.

Russia is signalling its intent to widen the conflict horizon to the north by deploying Russian Wagner mercenary group forces in Belarus, and upgrading the alert status of the uncommitted Russian strike forces capable of a decisive thrust towards ‘Suwalki Gap’ in Poland. Deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, its enclave adjoining Poland, and in Belarus which has common land border with Poland as well as Ukraine, are subtle indicators signalling its willingness to escalate the conflict horizon into the nuclear dimension, if adverse battlefield circumstances so necessitate.

The surprise Hamas military strikes from the Palestine Gaza strip into Israel, should be seen as opening of a second front to widen the military conflict horizon southwards. It puts additional pressure on US and NATO support for the Ukraine war effort, as also in reviving the opposition to the Syrian government. In one stroke it counters the increased US military pressure within Syria through coordinated operations by Israel and military groups opposed to the Syrian government, and has threatened to unravel the impending détente between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This détente has the potential to augment the power potential of the Saudi Arabia led alliance of Sunni Muslim countries against the Iran led Shia Muslim countries alliance. The Israel – Saudi Arabia alliance is also crucial to the security of the proposed India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC). The IMEEC, once operational, shall marginalise the Iran-Russia Central Asia trade corridor, as well as the Belt and Roads Initiative of China in the West Asia-Africa region. Thus, disrupting the impending Israel-Saudi Arabia detente is critical to the geopolitical interests of China, Russia, and Iran. The combat potential of Hamas is completely reliant on Iranian economic and military aid.

Assessing The Hamas Military Incursions Into Israel

In all Hamas launched 22 incursions to a depth of 20 odd kilometres from the border, after employing explosives and earth moving equipment to create gaps in the border fencing. Extensive fire assault was launched by firing nearly 7000 low cost aerial projectiles on key population centres in Israel, in a limited time frame, to overwhelm Israeli air defence network and act as deception to draw attention away from the simultaneous insertion of Hamas military force into Israel. The Israeli government was overwhelmed and stunned into inaction by the ferocity and width of the fire assaults, in conjunction with land, sea, and air incursions. This decision dilemma was further widened owing to the consideration of impact of Israeli reaction on the impending detente with Saudi Arabia. The threat in being from the Hezbollah forces in Lebanon was another additional factor that added to the information collation/ assessment/ decision/ action loop delays.

The military incursions by Hamas were launched at a critical juncture, when the Israeli society has become deeply divided on the issue of forcing through of judicial reforms by the Netanyahu led Government. The opposition to these reforms was so strong within Israel that reservists had declared their refusal for military service, if called upon to do so. The attack by Hamas was planned on a Jewish religious festival day, quite like the 1973 Yom Kippur war between Egypt and Israel. Israeli border posts were understaffed owing to personnel being on leave.

Hamas has the backing and support of Iran, which had vowed strong retaliation to a series of covert Israeli strikes on their nuclear facility. Iran has on several occasions announced their resolve to inflict unprecedented damage on Israel. The magnitude of the military operation undertaken through Hamas, reflects extensive planning, training, logistics, and intelligence effort spread over at least a year prior. Keeping such extensive military preparations secret from the vaunted Israeli secret services clearly indicate the effort entailed by Iran backed Hamas. The phenomenal success of the military incursions could not have been possible without real time intelligence being available with Hamas. Chinese/Russian indirect involvement in providing this real time intelligence is a distinct possibility.

However, the most surprising aspect is the obvious failure of the vaunted Israeli secret services who were unable to detect the war preparations by Hamas. Some internal complicity cannot be ruled out.

Future Impact

The Israeli apex security infrastructure has been completely surprised by the unprecedented military incursions launched by Hamas. The innovative strategy, audacity, speed, and ferocity of the offensive action of Hamas surpasses the combined the impact of the Al Qaida engineered 9/11 terrorist attacks in US of 2001, and the 29/11 ISI backed terrorist attack on Mumbai in 2008.  

Israel shall respond with the full might of the state to destroy the combat potential of the Hamas, and neutralise its current leadership. The anticipated Israeli military action shall result in extensive collateral damage to civil infrastructure and personnel. But this will play directly into the hands of Iran-Hamas combine, who would have calculated such a riposte into their own planning. The need of the hour is for Israel and US led alliance to plan and execute an equally innovative military and economic response that takes the fight into the enemy homeland.

The détente between Saudi Arabia and Israel shall currently be called off indefinitely. However, this show of armed might by Iran supported Hamas shall set alarm bells ringing in Saudi Arabia and allied countries in West Asia, pushing them to institutionalise a tacit understanding with Israel, till a favourable opportunity at the earliest to enter into a formal agreement.

Which of the two course of action is undertaken by Israel and US, shall also determine the impact of NATO support to Ukraine in its ongoing war with Russia. In either circumstance, the US shall be forced to increase its military presence in the Gulf to reassure its allied countries in West Asia, while pressurising Iran.

 

Learnings for India

The foremost learning for India’s security establishment is that a desperate enemy is more prone to undertake desperate actions. Pakistan is in a dire state, economically as well as militarily. Its Afghanistan policy is unravelling, as evidenced by its decision to deport 1.5 million Afghan refugees in the country. The terrorist infrastructure crafted by its security establishment has gone haywire, resulting in extensive increase in terrorist incidents on its own home soil. Two thirds of Pakistan, ranging from Sindh and Baluchistan in the south and west, FATA to its northwest, and POJK, Gilgit and Hunza principalities in the north, are aflame with civil disturbances. Even its nuclear infrastructure is not left untouched, as reflected by the recent blast at its nuclear hub at Dera Ghazi Khan. Financially it is in doldrums, needing urgent influx of around US dollar 10 billion, to keep its economy afloat. Its economy and military are under vice grip of China, making Pakistan state a very volatile and toxic mix.

The current dominant Chinese political leadership is also facing uncertain political environment, discernible from the timely aversion of the recent planned military coup. The major downturn in its economy is raising the risk of public dissatisfaction to continued primacy of the Communist Party of China. Militarily, China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), the bedrock of its strategic deterrence, is in complete disarray. US led West Bloc sanctions on Chinese access to cutting edge technologies is increasing China’s geopolitical vulnerability.

Externally, India needs to adopt a strong defensive posture for the rest of this decade, to counter any military misadventure by its proximity adversaries. Keeping the rival force levels in mind, this is feasible only by shelving its defensive mindset and clearly signalling its proactive stance to pre-empt any external threat to its security. Indian military would do well to shake the dust off from its now shelved ‘Cold Start Doctrine’ of the 1990s. The traditional logic of peace/field tenures need to be given a go by for the near future. Identified peace stations should be mandated to keep one-third of their force levels primed for a ‘Cold Start’. In active border deployments, the traditional winter vacation of defensive posts needs to be reviewed to avoid presenting vulnerabilities for exploitation by the adversaries. This is more applicable to eastern Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh bordering Chinese Occupied Tibet (COT). Professional competence needs to regain primacy over political conformity, in promotions to higher military ranks. This aspect is being brushed under the carpet for obvious reasons, but is a ground reality.

It is quixotic, that at a time when the external security environment of the country is most vulnerable, the political supervision of the ongoing reforms in the apex military architecture is slack, leading to lack of consensus on the way forward. This is not the time to experiment but to close ranks, owing to the grave and imminent threat from proximity adversaries.

Internal security environment is equally, if not more volatile, owing to a vitiated political environment and fissures in the society. There is unlikely to be any favourable change in this situation in the near future. Mutually antagonistic political parties are likely to form governments in the states and the centre. Political interests taking precedence over national interests is more the norm than the exception. This is impacting the professional discharge of assigned responsibilities by the law and order machinery. Under the given situation, the police establishment needs to be freed from political control, by establishing a constitutionally empowered autonomous Police Commission for controlling the law and order machinery. This should be the single most important agenda for resolving the internal security contradictions.

The commercial availability of emerging technologies in the hands of terrorist organisations is enlarging the canvas of threats that can be posed by terrorists. Subterranean rail-road infrastructure, autonomous ground/maritime/air/sub-surface vehicles, individual flying jetpacks, large waterworks, are all potential terror threats, especially in close proximity to population centres. The special forces earmarked for counter-terrorism need re-orienting to monitor, pursue, and neutralise these threats proactively.

A Grim Choice For the Future

A safe future necessitates heavily curtailed civil liberties under an all pervasive police state or continue to be free to live dangerously in an uncertain future.

There can be no midway!!!   

 

Recommended readings

'Current Israel Palestine Flare Up Linked To Byzantine West Asia Geopolitics'

https://valleysandvalour.blogspot.com/2021/05/current-israelpalestine-flare-up-linked.html

 

‘Ukraine Quagmire The Big Picture First Quarter Review’

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