UKRAINE QUAGMIRE THE BIG PICTURE
FIRST QUARTER REVIEW
“The fine line separating an audacious
vision from dreams is the intensity of plans and tenacity in pursuit!” - “Elephant On The High Himalayas” by Veteran Col
RS Sidhu
“Both Russia and the US led Western Alliance backing Ukraine
appear to have an audacious vision of what they intend to achieve from this
conflict, but irrespective of who history acknowledges as the victor, Ukraine
shall lie in ruins.” – Veteran Col RS Sidhu
The Context
The Ukraine quagmire can no longer be
looked at through the prism of just a military conflict. To give a realistic
chance to mitigate some of the uglier after effects of the Russia Ukraine
conflict, imparts urgency to understand the enormity of the larger consequences
emanating from it. The global war clouds looming large over the horizon and the
inexorable descent of the world economy into the vortex of biggest stagflation
since the 1920s portend the worst humanitarian crisis on the world stage.
With the Russian ‘Special Military Operation’ entering its fourth
month and showing no signs of abating in the foreseeable future, it now displays
its real colours of a contest for global supremacy between the US led established
world order and the joint challenge by China and Russia to establish geopolitical
mechanisms more responsive in promoting the national interests of the latter. The
confrontation has widened from the narrow sphere of military conflict between
Russia and Ukraine to an economic and commerce war between the US led Western
alliance and a China – Russia joint front by weaponizing finance, trade,
commerce, and natural resources in a fight to an exhaustive finish.
Geopolitical Scenario
Russia and US are now engaged in a
dangerous game of geopolitical brinkmanship beyond Ukraine, which has strong
potential to spiral into a global conflagration. Two recent events validate
this concern. First, is the filing of formal application by Sweden and Finland for
NATO membership on 18 May 2022, and US coming out in open support by promising
to fast track the process of their securing membership in the alliance. The second,
is the symbolic but deliberate act of Russian and
Chinese nuclear capable strategic bomber aircrafts undertaking joint air patrol
close enough to the air defense identification zone of South Korea and Japan on
23 May 2022, necessitating scrambling of Japanese air force fighter aircrafts, even
when the US President and other foreign heads of state of the Quad countries
were present in Japan for joint deliberations.
The first event brings NATO alliance to the North Western flank of
Russia, and knowing the latter’s unambiguously spelt out concerns on the
subject, may be interpreted as a deliberate attempt to broaden the conflict
horizon of the ongoing indirect confrontation between the opposing blocs. The
second event underscores the geopolitical signaling of a joint front by China
and Russia to combat the threat from US led Western alliance, as also showcasing
their resolve to escalate the ongoing indirect confrontation into an open global
conflict.
US
political scientist, John J Mearsheimer, in his various dissertations and talks
as far back as 2014 has been enunciating that extending NATO to embrace Ukraine
is bound to invite a strong Russian reaction. Rand Corporation research report ‘Russia’s
Military Interventions, Patterns, Drivers and Signposts’ published as late as 2021, and sponsored by office of
Deputy Chief of Staff US Army, also corroborates this hypothesis.
The US led Western alliance has been consistently adventurous
to push NATO frontiers eastwards to the borders of Russia despite the above
cited and similar corroborating evidence from other credible studies on most
likely Russian response to the given scenario. Therefore, it would be apt to
surmise that the Western bloc did not stumble into a confrontation with Russia
over Ukraine. Rather it does appear to be part of an overall US strategy to provoke
a Russian military intervention and use it as a ‘causus belli’ to undertake
strong retaliatory response short of a direct military confrontation.
Russia has taken nearly seven years, since it first
enunciated its red lines on eastward expansion of NATO in 2014, to undertake the
ongoing ‘Special Military Operation’ to neutralise the threat of Ukraine
joining NATO. It stands to reason that this period has been put to gainful use to
undertake comprehensive evaluation of threats, vulnerabilities, likely enemy
reaction, planning and preparing an effective own course of action, and
deliberate on contingencies arising out of a comprehensive riposte by the
adversary. Thus Russia too has been deliberate in undertaking military offensive
in Ukraine despite the certainty of comprehensive Western bloc reaction. It
highlights Russia’s resolve to offensively engage with the US led Western
alliance even at the cost of the conflict spiraling into a no-holds barred
nuclear engage.
The indirect support of China provides Russia with strong
leverage to circumvent the economic sanctions, and also signals an emerging
Russia – China axis to openly challenge the US led established world order. With China's
belligerence in South China Sea propelling US pivot to the East, away from
Europe, Russia took this as an opportune moment to secure its South Western flank
against NATO expansionism. Near simultaneous offensive action by Russia in
southern Europe and China’s belligerence in maritime regions of east Asia poses
a strategic dilemma for the US led Western bloc. An active joint front of China
and Russia has the potential to tilt the geopolitical balance of power equation
away from the West, in favour of the former. So it does make strategic sense
for the Western alliance to first isolate and confront Russia, the relatively
weaker of the two adversaries, before taking on China.
Military and Political Objectives
From the study of military force
deployed and the unfolding of the military operation it is reasonable to deduce
that Russia started with the objective of
regime change in Ukraine and divesting it of all areas east of Dnieper River
and along the coasts of Black Sea and Sea of Azov, and hive them off into
separate political entity/entities, leaving Ukraine neutralised as a rump
without any access to the seas. The tempo of Russian military operations also reflects
the desire to achieve the aim with minimum civilian casualties and damage to
infrastructure. However,
unforeseen heavy resistance by Ukraine
military forced Russia to truncate its military objectives to securing the breakaway eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and the coastal region of Ukraine.
The overall US and EU strategy rests on the twin pillars
of, tying down Russia in a prolonged debilitating armed confrontation in
Ukraine, and simultaneously striking at the very roots of Russia’s
comprehensive national power (CNP) through economic sanctions. To achieve
these objectives the US led alliance is providing Ukraine with extensive
financial aid, trained mercenary manpower, weapons
and ISR support in the military field, and by imposing trade, commerce and monetary sanctions in
the economic sphere.
Ukraine’s political leadership is reduced to the role of a
puppet, for all practical purpose. Its priority is to deter and delay the
advance of Russian military, and prolong the conflict with a view to increase the time window for
entry of NATO forces in its support.
Military Realm
Ukraine has concentrated its defences in major population
centres. Its biggest achievement till date has been to ensure survival of its
Government by retaining control over the capital city of Kiev and the second largest
city of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine, while pushing the Northern prong of the
Russian offensive from the outskirts of Kiev back to the borders. Its military
strategy is forcing Russia to employ artillery firepower predominant tactics,
resulting in heavy destruction of industrial, housing and communication
infrastructure in eastern Ukraine. Thus, while Russia will most likely achieve its curtailed
objectives, the victory shall be hollow, as it lacks financial resources
required for reconstruction of the lucrative industrial base in east Ukraine.
Russia has nevertheless achieved great success in cutting off
Ukraine access to the maritime waters of Black Sea, nearing completion of
securing the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk and the
coastal region of Ukraine, while encircling major part of the Ukraine forces in
eastern Ukraine, making them vulnerable to piecemeal annihilation.
Bankruptcy of Ukraine
Critical industrial, agrarian, housing and communication
infrastructure in Ukraine has been destroyed. The Ukraine state is bereft of
funds to run the government and fight the war. As per World Bank estimate, Ukraine GDP is likely
to contract by 45%, overall infrastructure losses may add up to 600 billion
US Dollars, and financial burden of
Ukraine war refugees in the current year is assessed at Euro 40 billion. An
estimated 70% of Ukraine’s population, and worldwide 40 million people
are estimated to fall below poverty line.
As the war gets prolonged, to avoid the danger of collapse
of governance, the US and EU shall have to heavily finance Ukraine. EU and
constituent governments will also have to confront fiscal pressures from
additional spending on energy, food, burden of refugee influx, and defense
budgets. These shall raise conflict of interest issues both within national governments, as also
within the constituent states of the EU. The dilemma of requirement of funds
for increased fiscal spending to fight inflationary pressures on the economy,
and for enhanced defense procurements, will widen the existing fissures
within EU and its constituent countries.
As against overall Russian annual defence budget of 70 Billion
US Dollars, Ukraine is being provided with near 100 billion US Dollar worth of
financial and material military aid by US led Western alliance. Just military
and humanitarian aid by US to Ukraine is currently assessed at 135 million US
Dollars per day.
Demographic Field
From a total population of 41 million in Ukraine, nearly
40% population has been displaced from their homes, that is more than 14
million people. Of them, 6 million have fled the country, including 4.6 million entering
the EU as refugees. Of the overall refugees, 30% are
children, 52% are females and only 18% are males. The Ukraine government enforcing a policy of denying
able bodied male citizens to depart Ukraine has caused mass scale separation of
male members from their refugee families, making the latter vulnerable to
trafficking and other abuse.
Social impact of the humanitarian disaster resulting from separated
families, loss of lives and livelihood, reduced family incomes will result in
increased social unrest in the region. There is an assessed presence of
50,000 mercenaries with the two warring sides, majority of them professing
extremist ideologies. This will result in militarisation of minorities, with
major security ramifications in the heart of Europe.
Impact of Economic Sanctions
The irony of the economic sanctions being imposed by the US led
alliance cannot be lost. The impact of sanctions on Ukraine and EU countries,
and countries with weaker economies, is mostly greater than on Russia.
Along with COVID 19 pandemic induced slowdown it is leading the global economy
to the next big recession.
Rifts
have already occurred in EU on stopping energy supply from Russia, as the
latter, by weaponizing energy supply, has forced majority of the EU countries to
pay for Russian energy supply in Roubles.
Since
the imposition of economic sanctions the Rouble, after switching over to the
Gold standard, has gained against most of the international currencies. The Rouble traded against 1 US dollar on 24 February at 81.4144, went
down to a low of 139.2540 on 07 March, and on 26 May stood at 68.1750.
Russia’s foreign exchange reserves which were 630 billion US
dollars on 24 February 2022 still stand at 580 billion US Dollars on 20 May
2022.
International
market prices of energy, food, and metals have crossed well beyond the last
surge witnessed in 2013. Double digit inflation is forecasted for most countries
of the world.
World
Bank Chief David Malpass, leading financial
analysts such as Ray Delio, author of “Principles
for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail” which discusses
the extreme shifts that reshape global politics and financial markets, and International
Monetary Fund, are all warning of the coming stagflation. Increasing
prices of food, energy, and fertilisers, depressed consumer sentiment, fall in
industrial and agrarian productivity, coupled with disruptions in logistics
supply chains is leading the world into a recession. Citing the Ukraine war
impact, World Bank has already lowered its global
growth forecast for 2022 from 4.1% to 3.2%, by an almost full percentage point.
Aspects for India
Forecasted
global recession will enjoin on India to earmark resources for social security
net for the weaker sections of the society.
There
is inherent irony in India, ranked 101 out of total of 116 countries in the
2021 World Hunger index - even behind countries such as Pakistan, Nepal and Sri
Lanka in its near neighbourhood - being chided by specific international
agencies and Western governments for restricting wheat exports. Equally
incongruous is the US led Western alliance criticising India for not supporting
their efforts in contesting Russian military operations in faraway Ukraine,
while excluding Indian participation from the security dialogue on future of
Afghanistan, so vital to its geopolitical security environment, or indifference
shown by the Western alliance to assist India in defending its sovereign
territory from China’s aggressive military operation in 2020. But such contradictions
are harsh realities on the geopolitical stage, and should be used as a learning
and realpolitik benchmark by India.
Long term impact of frequent militarising of economic
sanctions by US has set off a chain reaction resulting in concerned countries in
re-evaluating the security of sources of their energy and supply chains, setting
up an alternative reliable and neutral international payment network, and taking
measures that diversify and secure their reserve currency holdings in crisis
situations. These are likely to result in deep structural changes in the global
economic order. India has been often at the receiving end of coercive
threats of economic sanctions to modulate its sovereign decisions, and should actively
engage in formulation of the new global economic world order, to secure its
national interests.
As the Ukraine quagmire prolongs, it shall severely strain the financial and military resources of the major protagonists. While the US and NATO resources and, more critical, the will to contest offensive actions by China in Indo-Pacific region will be greatly reduced, a weakened Russia, dependent on China for its energy market, will find it difficult to modulate adversarial Chinese policy towards India. Adopting a strong dissuasive posture towards China will be paramount for India’s national security doctrine, and will be the most defining factor in influencing India’s geopolitical alliances.
A very high risk of global conflict in the foreseeable future necessitates that India ramps up its defence preparedness, irrespective of costs entailed. It is highly vulnerable to coercive actions along its northern borders as also along its coastal and vast maritime region of interest. India is in the midst of reorganising its higher defence architecture, hence more vulnerable at this critical juncture. The way these reforms are unfolding is more reminiscent of the infamous ‘Tughlaqi farman’ in the medieval era, where the well intentioned reforms fell foul to poor execution. The CDS and DMA in current avatar have failed to deliver the desired results. The results rather highlight the potential of the bureaucracy to derail reforms perceived as inimical to their interests. The experiment of a professional heading the External Affairs of the country is proving to be eminently successful. Intimate political supervision of the military reforms are critical to the interest of the nation and for this professional competence rather than political conformity is the need of the hour. Its time the moribund Defence Ministry too is shaken out of its byzantine intrigue prone legacy by appointing an eminent professional to lead the restructuring, and who better than Gen (Dr) VK Singh for being entrusted with the task. He has already proven his mettle in assigned political responsibilities apart from being a thinking military professional.
“There is a
source of madness deep within every human being which, if developed, leads to a
highly evolved sixth sense of a Karma Yogi and an unquenchable thirst to accept
risk and go beyond the conventional wisdom in searching new horizons, ideas,
innovations and activities.” – “Success
From Being Mad” by Veteran Col RS Sidhu
Links to previous commentaries on Russia-Ukraine Conflict
“The
first US response of inducting token troop reinforcements to other European
countries rather than to beleaguered Ukraine… and NATO pronouncements of according
primacy to economic sanctions… had thus foreclosed it's direct intervention
options, even before the Russian intervention in Ukraine.” – “US Dilemma Over Ukraine
Crisis & Global Geopolitical Power Shift” by Veteran Col RS Sidhu
https://valleysandvalour.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-dilemma-over-ukraine-crisis.html
“An active
joint front of China and Russia has the potential to shift the geopolitical
balance of power equation, which is currently in West’s favour, towards the
former. To that extent, it does make geopolitical sense for the Western
alliance to first isolate and weaken Russia, the weaker of the two
adversaries.” – “The Ukraine-Russia Conflict” by Veteran Col
RS Sidhu
https://goachronicle.com/ipkf-10-the-ukraine-russia-conflict-a-jaffna-redux/
“The interplay of a marriage of convenience between
Islamic radicals and white supremacist mercenaries jointly engaged in combating
Russian military in Ukraine should be an interesting phenomenon to watch. This
will bring armed Islamic radicals closest ever to the heart of Europe, and its
impact on further radicalising Islamist forces in Europe should be a cause for
concern to the more sensible factions of NATO leadership.” - “Slavia Ukraine!” By Veteran Col RS Sidhu
https://goachronicle.com/ipkf-11-slava-ukraine/
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