Armed Drone Strikes On Indian Insurgent Groups In Myanmar

A Volatile Mix Of Geoeconomics Over Geopolitics

“The quest for dominance drives commerce; so, to discern the future follow the trade, as it’s Geoeconomics that dictates the course of the  Great Game.” – Col RS Sidhu

 

Backdrop

In the early hours of 13^th of July 2025 armed drone swarms struck Indian separatist insurgent group camps in Myanmar killing several top insurgent leaders. The United Liberation Front of Assam (Independent) (ULFA – I) and Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) of Manipur, in separate press releases, accused India of launching drone strikes on four of their camps located near Taga in Sagaing region of neighbouring Myanmar. They accused India of using swarm of 150 armed drones to attack their camps, 15-20 kms across the international border in Myanmar. Camps of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Khaplang faction (NSCN-K), which coordinates its insurgency with ULFA-I, were also targeted in the strike.

India officially denied any knowledge of these drone strikes.

Volatile Mix Of Geoeconomics Over Geopolitics

July of 2025 is turning out to be the proverbial season afflicted with ‘monsoon madness’, more so for India. It is barely middle of July and already the Geoeconomics Game is to the fore on the global centre stage…

On 14^th July POTUS Donald Trump threatened Russia and countries trading with it, including India and China, with 100% secondary tariff unless a peace deal is signed by Russia with Ukraine within fifty days.

On 15^th July, S Jaishankar, the Foreign Minister of India met Xi Jinping, President of China, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) ministerial meeting at Beijing. Interestingly this meeting was held in the shadow of the military strike on Indian insurgents in Myanmar, having covert Chinese support.

On 16^th July Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, also warned India, China, Brazil of 100% secondary tariff, if they continue to trade in Russian oil and gas. 

On 17^th July India voiced its willingness to consider reviving the long dormant Russia India China Trilateral dialogue on subjects of mutual interest and mutually agreed upon time frame, in a quick diplomatic response to similar statements emanating from Russia and China.

On 19^th July POTUS Donald Trump warned BRICS nations with additional 10% tariff on trade with US, if they continue their efforts to reduce their dependency on the US Dollar by entering into bilateral trade agreements in local currencies.

This sequence of events best validates the assumption, “geoeconomics dictates the course of geopolitics”.

All of this comes even as India holds firm on continuing its energy trade with Russia, despite opposition from the US and its allies, and refusal to give in on subjects impacting its key national interests during its ongoing tariff talks with the US.

India also stands opposite to China on the issue of natural succession of His Holiness Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan Buddhist spiritual head. The two countries are also in opposite camps in the widespread internal strife, in Myanmar, between the several ethnic armed groups within themselves, as also with the military junta led government of Myanmar.

US and China, the two globally powerful countries view India as their opponent and also a proponent. They view India as their long term rival in the context of geoeconomic interests, as Indian economic growth is bound to cut into their global economy share. At the same time, with the US and China also being mutual adversaries, they look at India as their protagonist in countering the geoeconomic and geopolitical machinations of the other.

This conflict of core interests in its bilateral relationships with both the US and China, makes the situation on the geoeconomics as well as the geopolitical front highly volatile and ambiguous for India.

This conflict of interest is further exacerbated due to the unique transactional ‘carrot and stick’ approach being adopted by POTUS Donald Trump to achieve his declared goal to ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA).  The threat of additional tariffs is the proverbial stick to coerce favourable bilateral trade agreements from other countries, including close allies. The US under Donald Trump is clearly giving precedence to major economic gains through trade, over security obligations towards its long term allies; in other words, geoeconomics interests of the US reign supreme over geopolitical pursuits.

The Great Economic Game

It is, therefore, no coincidence that the four land/multi-modal trade corridors projected to provide India economic access to markets of Central Asia, and Europe to the west, and to Myanmar and Southeast Asia to its east, are facing blockage through orchestrated international strife and externally sponsored insurgency movements. The India Middle-East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) to provide India access to Europe via UAE – Saudi Arabia – Israel – Italy/Greece; the Iran-Russia multi-modal International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) providing India connectivity to Russia and northern Europe;  are stalled due to the widespread hybrid warfare in West Asia and Iran. The India – Myanmar – Thailand Trilateral Highway (IMTTH), and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP) are similarly threatened by externally sponsored ethnic strife in bordering Myanmar.

Similar is the case for China too, on its China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and the China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). The Baluch insurgency in Pakistan, and the ethnic insurgencies in Myanmar pose a grave threat to these economic corridors tailored by China to meet its geoeconomic and geostrategic needs.

The presence of nearly two score insurgent groups in Myanmar, with shifting loyalties to external powers, is again a clear indicator that geoeconomics is the key factor in the rising regional instability.

Ethnic Armed Groups (EAGs) in Myanmar

Myanmar has a maze of more than two score EAGs, with another score of India and Bangladesh based insurgent groups operating from Myanmar. The highly profitable illegal drugs trade, and mining of rare earth minerals are also lucrative reasons for the proliferation of the EAGs in Myanmar. Most of the insurgent groups are functioning under a broad coalition termed as the National Unity Government (NUG), in their common fight against the Myanmar military junta (Tatmadaw).

Every ethnic community is represented by two or more EAGs, some of which are aligned with the Tatmadaw and other foreign powers. While overall resisting the authority of the Tatmadaw, these groups are also simultaneously engaged in vicious infighting for supremacy within themselves.

China provides active support to the Tatmadaw government in its fight with the insurgent rebel groups. On the other hand, it is actively backing several major insurgent groups to secure a favourable security environment to its CMEC, and other economic interests in the region.

The major EAGs in Myanmar are listed below…

Arakan Army (AA), the strongest amongst the EAGs, is active in the Shan, Kachin, Chin, and Rakhine states of Myanmar, and is aligned to China.

Kachin Independence Army (KIA), is operating in Shan, and Kachin state in north Myanmar region.

Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), is effective in Kayah state, Kayin state, and Tanintharyi region.

Karen National Army (KNA), is based in Kayin state.

Karenni Nationalities defence Force (KNDLF), is active in Kayah, Shan, and Kayin states.

Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), is operating in Shan state in Northeast, and is aligned to China.

United Wa State Army (UWSA), is deployed in Shan state, and is aligned to China.

Shan State Army (SSA), is active in Shan state.

Shan State Army (SSA/RCSS), is also based in the Shan state.

Ta’ang National Liberation Army, is active in Shan state.

Infighting in the Chin state between the anti-government Chin rebel factions, the Chin National Army (CNA) and Chin National Defense Force (CNDF), adversely impacts India’s international trade corridor to Southeast Asia. Chin Council is the political arm of the CNA, while Chin Brotherhood is the political arm of the CNDF.

Continued internal strife, in this least economically developed and most sparsely populated state of Myanmar, has resulted in 40,000 Myanmar refugees sheltering in India, primarily in the state of Mizoram.

The armed cadres of the Indian insurgent groups from the Northeast states have also established camps in neighbouring Myanmar and are provided covert material support by China. Infact, Paresh Baruah, the head of the ULFA-I, is believed to be provided safe sanctuary in Yunnan province of China.

India’s Geoeconomics Interests in Myanmar

The Chin state of Myanmar, bordering India, is a strategic gateway for India’s Act East Policy that seeks to enhance connectivity and cooperation with Southeast Asia. The IMTTH, and the KMMTTP, both pass close to this region.

India is investing heavily in Myanmar in transport, power, and economic infrastructure projects, with a broad aim to boost economic activity to India’s Northeastern states by providing alternate maritime access through Myanmar. India is committed to a total investment assistance of US Dollar 2 Billion in Myanmar. China on the other hand is investing upwards of US Dollar 15 Billion on the CMEC in Myanmar.

Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP) – This project was conceptualised in 2003, and signed in 2008 with completion deadline of 2030. The KMMTTP shall provide maritime access to Northeast states of India from Aizawl (India) to Sittwe (Myanmar) seaport on the Bay of Bengal. It involves construction of Aizawl (India) – Zorinpui (Myanmar) 110 kms road route; Zorinpui – Paletwa inland jetty 108 kms road route; Paletwa inland jetty – Sittwe seaport 158 kms inland water transport (IWT) route over Kaladan river; Sittwe (Myanmar) – Kolkata (India) 439 kms shipping route through Bay of Bengal.

Sittwe – Zorinpui – Aizawl Railway – The road connectivity shall be further complemented by the Sittwe – Kyaukthu – Zorinpui 290 kms railway, and Zorinpui – Aizawl 375 kms railway.

Sittwe Special Economic Zone (Sittwe SEZ) – a 1000 acre SEZ 60 kms north of Sittwe at Ponnagyun town.

1800 Megawatt Thathay Chaung Hydropower Project (TCHP) – a two dam project on Chindwin river in Rakhine state of Myanmar, 1,200 megawatt dam at Thamanthi (Manthi) and 600 megawatt dam at Shwejaye. The electricity produced will be supplied to Manipur state of India.

Sittwe – Gaya Gas Pipeline – 1,575 kms Sittwe–Aizawl–Silchar–Guwahati–Siliguri–Gaya gas pipeline to transport gas from Sittwe gas field.

Entry into the Chin ethnic conflict by the China backed Arakan Army, the dominant ethnic armed group from the adjacent Rakhine state to its south, has further muddied the waters in Chin. The Sittwe-Shillong stretch of the KMMTTP is strife ridden in Rakhine and Arakan regions of Myanmar, so uncertainties shall exist.

The Sittwe Seaport (20,000 dwt) and SEZ is in a close vicinity of 80 kms from Kyakpyau seaport (300,000 dwt) and SEZ being developed by China under its CMEC. The Chinese operated Kyaukpaw port shall be a dominant competitor to the KMMTTP.  Hence, its primary usage shall be to provide transportation connectivity for NE trade exports. Secondarily, it shall also result in decongesting the bottleneck of 24 kms wide Siliguri Corridor on the Silchar – Kolkata road.  

The Myanmar Potpourri

The Tatmadaw is running the government of Myanmar since February 2021, after overthrowing the US led West bloc backed democratically elected government of Aung Sun Suu Kyi. Myanmar under Tatmadaw is under strong economic and diplomatic sanctions from the West bloc countries. This has left the field free for China to promote its strategic and economic interests in Myanmar, forcing India to constructively engage with the Tatmadaw to safeguard its own interests.

The Tatmadaw government writ runs in only thirty percent of Myanmar, the major population centres, and the central region. Approximately forty percent of Myanmar territory, especially the border regions, are currently under control of various EAGs. Remaining thirty percent is being fiercely contested by the warring factions, including the military junta.

Nearly two thirds of China’s imports of rare earth minerals are from Myanmar, with an annual trade value of US Dollar 1.4 billion. These minerals originate in the Kachin state of Myanmar, bordering China. Illegal mining of rare earth minerals is rampant under the patronage of KIA and few other EAGs. Hence, China actively backs the Tatmadaw, while also engaging with the EAGs in areas under their control. The strongest EAGs, the AA, UWSA, and the MNDAA, are under Chinese influence due to its strong material support to them. They are used by China to safeguard and promote its interests, such as the CMEC.

India’s concern in Myanmar is centered around securing its land access to East Asia, and managing a safe environment around its economic infrastructure development projects under the KMTTP. This project is key to economic development of its remote NE region states, thereby, bring them into the national mainstream.

Another domain of key interest to India is the separatist Indian insurgent groups from its NE states establishing safe havens across the borders in Myanmar. These regions are in effective control of various EAGs. Chinese covert material support to these Indian separatist groups raises further complications.  The recent drone strike on these insurgent camps in Myanmar should be viewed from this perspective. To further safeguard its interests, India is now backing the Chin Council, the political arm of the CAN.

The US has now covertly entered the fray in Myanmar. It aims at destabilising the region to choke the CMEC, thus, bringing the covert fight against China to its doorstep. It also aims at disrupting the KMTTP to pressurise India to wean it off from the BRICS and RIC Trilateral formats. Securing a government change in Bangladesh, which is now pursuing anti-India policies, is the opening gambit in this covert process by the US.

Talking Points for the Future

US is most sensitive to any attempts, direct or indirect, at marginalising the centrality of the US Dollar in global trade. It is the lynchpin of its geopolitical supremacy.

Similarly, for China the core interest lies in its secure access to energy resources across the globe. Restricting its access to energy sources shall be the death knell of its economy, and lead to the collapse of its CPC led government.

India’s continued economic expansion is premised on extending its reach into the global markets beyond its current safe geostrategic reach. Hence, stitching regional alliances to secure its geoeconomics interests is its criticality; as disruption to its trade corridors will implode its growing economy.

India is faced with a Hobson’s choice, to ally with the US, its projected economic rival, or, join hands with China, its geopolitical adversary who is already engaged with India in a three and half front hybrid war.

The third choice for India is the most challenging, but one likely to pay maximum dividend; to go it alone on the geoeconomic and geopolitical path; facing challenges as they come, seizing opportunities as they arise; synchronising its alliances in tune with the geoeconomic and geopolitical need of the hour.