CURRENT ISRAEL PALESTINE FLARE UP LINKED TO BYZANTINE WEST ASIA GEOPOLITICS

 

“West Asia is the cradle of ancient civilisations, venerated birthplace of the three Abrahamic religions, harbours huge petroleum reserves, and is the epicenter of world trade routes of importance.”

 

Geographic Extent and Significance

Geographically West Asia encompasses the 23 countries of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus and Turkey.

Geostrategic significance of West Asia lies in its straddling the junction of the continents of Europe, Asia and Africa. It is also the epicenter of critical international trade routes, and harbouring huge natural hydrocarbon reserves, its major source of revenue.

Within West Asia, Iran enjoys a unique geostrategic outreach capability. It sits at the hub of one of the most critical trade junction of the modern world, dominates the Strait of Hormuz, the world's single most important oil passageway through which over one sixth of world’s petroleum products are transported, and also provides deep access into Central Asia over land and through the huge water body of the Caspian Sea. It also shares borders with 12 West Asian countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan to the east, Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman to its south, Oman – UAE – Qatar – Bahrain – Saudi Arabia – Kuwait across the Persian Gulf to its south-east, Iraq and Turkey to its west, and Armenia, Azerbaijan, Caspian Sea and Turkmenistan to its north.

 

Ethnic Divide

West Asia, the cradle of three Abrahamic religions, is a quagmire of fratricidal ethno-religious frontal and proxy conflicts, actively aided and abetted by extra regional powers.

 Though the population is overwhelmingly of Muslim faith, demographically it is highly factitious with deep rooted Muslim – Jew – Christian religious divide, intra Muslim Sunni- Shia divide, Arab – Turk – Persian – Pashtun - Kurd ethnic divide, apart from other cultural and civilisation factors. Relatively low rate of literacy, coupled with a very high rate of unemployment, weak manufacturing sector, makes the region a very high arc of orthodox fundamentalism and instability.

The most serious ethnic-religious fault lines in West Asia today are in Iraq and the adjacent regions to its North, bordering Iran, Turkey, and Syria. 60 % Iraqis are Shia Arabs, predominantly concentrated in South Eastern Iraq bordering Iran, 20 % are Sunni Arabs generally in Western Iraq bordering Syria, and 17 % are Sunni Kurds in North Eastern Iraq bordering Iran and Turkey. Approximately 25 to 30 million Sunni Kurds are majority inhabitants of the border regions of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.

The most populous countries in the region are Turkey and Iran, each with around 79 million populations, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia with around 33 million each, and Yemen with around 29 million.

The largest population mass in the region and an overwhelmingly Shia Muslim population, has naturally devolved the mantle of Shia Muslim leadership on Iran.

Shia Muslims are a numerical majority in Iraq and Bahrain, almost half of the Muslim population in Lebanon and Yemen, significant 30-40% in Kuwait, 15-20% in Saudi Arabia, 13 % in Syria, and 10% in Qatar.

This unique demographic advantage combined with its geostrategic outreach capability, enables Iran to exercise geopolitical influence over events across the length and breadth of West Asia region.

 

Geopolitical Overview

Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Israel are the major regional countries with potential to chart and influence the geopolitics in West Asia, based on their demographic mass, economic profile, maturity of governance structure, and combat potential of armed forces.

The largest economies in the region in terms of GDP terms (in US Dollars) are Turkey 800 billion, Saudi Arabia 750 billion, Iran 550 billion, Israel 350 billion, and Iraq 200 billion.

Militarily Israel, an undeclared Nuclear power, has one of the most powerful military in the region, closely followed by Turkey and Iran, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq in the next league. Israel and Turkey have robust governance structures, followed by Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Saudi Arabia, by virtue of being the custodian of the holiest shrines of Muslims and the strength of its petroleum industry based economy, considers itself to be the leader of the Muslim World.

Turkey considers itself to be the rightful owner of the legacy of the old Ottoman Empire and hence of the Muslim world.

Israel, the only non-Muslim country in the region, has strong ties with USA enabling it to develop the strongest military in the region. Having successfully fought several battles of survival with the neighbouring Muslim countries it pursues policy of pro-active intervention to safeguard its geostrategic interests. Its strategic reach encompasses almost the whole of West Asia.

Iran looks at itself as the oldest continuous civilisation of the region and the custodian of the Shia Muslim faith and the Ummah. The dispersed spread of the Shia Muslims in the region gives it capability to influence events beyond its borders.

Changed Alignments in West Asia Region

The withdrawal of Egypt from the leadership space of Arab Muslim world, due to internal strife and a weakened economy, resulted in the Palestinian issue being relegated to the periphery of Arab geopolitical stage. This has had three consequences.

-          Israel got breathing space, which it utilised to extend its geostrategic reach in the region.

-          Saudi Arabia stepped in to assume the mantle of leadership of Arab Muslims.

-          Iran picked up the gauntlet of challenger to Saudi Arabia.

Turkey, by far one of the most militarily powerful nations in West Asia, has also commenced reasserting its dominant position of old by active intervention in Syrian conflict and Libya. To buttress its leadership claims in the region, it has also joined hands with Iran to jointly combat Kurdistan factor and challenge Saudi Arabia leadership of Organisation of Islamic States. The holding of a conference of Muslim countries in Malaysia, outside of OIC, duly backed by Turkey and Iran was the first gambit in this direction.

Installation of a Shia Government in power in Iraq has facilitated full rapprochement between Iraq and Iran.

Iran is now fully aligned with Shia Muslim predominant countries and regions in Arab world comprising Iraq, Kuwait, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. It is also in the process of deepening the strategic partnership with China.

In this emerging realignment Russia is providing indirect military technological support and influence to Iran-led Shia alliance, with a view to check spread of Sunni extremism along its Southern borders.

China too is favourably inclined towards the Iran led alliance.

All these factors combined together have created tangible shift in the power equations hitherto dominated by Saudi Arabia led Sunni Muslim predominant countries coalition of United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, Jordan, Egypt, and Yemen.

USA is providing active material support to the Saudi led alliance. This alliance also has tacit support from Israel.

With Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen, as openly volatile hotspots, the flare up of Sunni Muslim separatism in Iraq, cross border Kurdish nationalism in Iraq-Turkey-Iran triangle, and collapse of Afghanistan into warlordism are future possibilities of serious concern.

 

Iran Footprint in Palestine Flare Up in May 2021

 The Hamas supported violence in Palestine, escalating to employment of military force has come at a time when Iran is under pressure to retaliate to the covert attacks on its nuclear infrastructure, purportedly by Israel, and continuing US supported international trade embargo on Iran. A deepening strategic partnership between Iran and China is also emboldening Iran in pursuing its geostrategic interests in West Asia with greater vigour.

The signing of Iran-China 25 year partnership for developing energy resources and infrastructure in Iran amounting to 400 billion US Dollar, commitment to increase bilateral trade to 600 Billion US Dollar over coming decade, and Iran’s awarding of contracts for development of the giant Farzad-B gas field in the Persian Gulf, and the Chabahar- Zahedan railway line construction project to Iranian companies rather than to Indian commercial entities as envisaged earlier, are strong indicators of the emerging Iran-China axis. 

Iran has already achieved considerable geopolitical success in its quest for dominance of the Muslim world in West Asia.

Lebanese Hezbollah, supported by Iran, is the dominant power in Lebanon.

The Palestine Territories are in effective control of Iran’s ally Hamas.

The Shiite Alawis are the key pillar of strength of the Syrian Government headed by President Bashar al-Assad. Iran backed militias Zaynabiyoun Brigade and Fatemiyoum Division, in conjunction with Syrian army and Russia, have succeeded in preventing the overthrow of the Syrian Government by US supported rebel groups.

The Shia Houthi rebel group, Ansar Allah, in Yemen has been able to occupy Sanaa, its capital city. Saudi Arabia led Sunni military alliance of Egypt, Morocco, Sudan, Jordan, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain are undertaking military operations in support of the Government, but have been fought to a standstill by the Houthi rebels. In fact the Houthi have carried the battle into Saudi Arabia by launching missile and drone attacks on Saudi territory inflicting heavy damage on their petroleum industry infrastructure.

A Shia majority government is in power in Iraq, and enjoys the support of Iran backed Shia militias.

Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is the Iranian arm for executing its West Asia intervention strategy, whose head Major General Qasem Soleimani was killed in a drone strike by US in Iraq in January 2020.

US Government estimates Iran has spent approximately 16 billion US Dollar, in under ten years, as financial and arms and ammunition support to political and militant groups in Lebanon, Palestinian Territories, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and Iraq. This includes 100 million US Dollar annually to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

US have also sanctioned Iran backed militias. Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al Haq, Harqat Hezbollah al Mujada, Al Badr, Kataib Sayyad al Shuhada in Iraq. Al Ashtar Brigade, Saraya Al Mukhtar in Bahrain. Ansar Allah, Houthi rebel group in Yemen. Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Palestine. Zaynabiyoun Brigade, Fatemiyoum Division in Syria. Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah al Hejaz in Saudi Arabia.

Iran now looks to a long term strategy to further extend its influence by developing Chabahar port, on the Makran coastline on the Arabian Sea, as a free trade zone and connecting it with road and rail infrastructure to the land locked countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan, and also plans to build an inland shipping waterway to link the landlocked Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf.

It has already signed memorandum of understanding and agreements with Afghanistan, Tajikistan Oman, Qatar, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan for transport infrastructure, and is engaged in promoting the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) along with Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Oman, Syria, India and the Central Asian countries, which aims to connect South and Central Asian countries to Northern Europe via Iran and Russia.

Expanding Footprint of China in West Asia

China’s geostrategic interest in West Asia is primarily driven by security interests to safeguard its energy sources, protection of its land and maritime trade routes, and safety of its financial investments and infrastructure in resource rich Africa and West Asia hugging the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

China is highly sensitive to spread of Islamic extremism amongst Uighur Muslims of China’s Xinjiang province. Extending its geopolitical influence in the region has enabled China to mute criticism by Islamic nations to its coercive policies in suppressing Uighur fundamentalism, and silence of the Organisation of Islamic Countries on this aspect vindicates this hypothesis.

Wide spread Iranian geopolitical influence in hydrocarbon minerals rich West Asia, political stability, animosity towards Saudi Arabia led Sunni Muslim countries alliance, an economy strained by US imposed international trade and commerce embargo, are all factors that influence China towards engaging with Iran in economic, and strategic spheres. Heavy infrastructure and security investments in Iran meet China’s interests in securing its existing land routes of energy supplies, open up possibilities of opening additional energy supply land routes through Wakhan corridor of Afghanistan, diversify its energy supplies, and provide new avenues of economic investment.

For Iran, deepening its strategic and economic alliance with China provides wide opportunities to strengthen its economy, access to high end military technologies, break US stranglehold over its economic and geopolitical interests, and pursue its conflict with Saudi Arabia led alliance with greater vigour.

‘Anti-piracy’ naval operations by People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in the maritime waterways of the Gulf, military presence in Djibouti and Gwadar in IOR, exercising veto in UN on Western bloc countries proposals to oust the existing Government of Syria, diplomatic support to Iran on US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran, offer to host talks between Israel and Palestine, announcement to hold multilateral talks on Afghanistan, and deepening strategic alliance with Iran, are pointers to China’s active involvement in the West Asia geopolitical sphere.    

Impact on India’s Geopolitical Interests in West Asia

India’s geopolitical interests in West Asia revolve around the energy security, safeguarding interests of the massive Indian diaspora employed in the region, securing the support of West Asian Islamic bloc in UN and other vital international organisations, and modulating Islamic influence on its near 20 % Muslim minority population at home.

Approximately 7 to 8 million Indians are employed as temporary workers in The Arabian Gulf region of West Asia. Any major internal sectarian strife or open hostilities would impact their safety and livelihood.

Indian workforce in the Gulf is infusing the Indian economy with around 40 billion US Dollars worth of annual remittances, amounting to almost half of remittances by Indian diaspora the world over. Any stoppages of these remittances would have negative impact on the Indian economy.

India imports 80% of its total petroleum consumption from external markets. The Gulf meets two thirds of India’s petroleum imports. Any interruption in supply of petroleum imports from the Gulf or rise in petroleum prices, due to conflict in the region, would fuel inflationary tendency in Indian economy.

West Asia accounts for 20% of external trade of India.

Iran as a leading Shia Muslim nation exercises considerable influence over Shias in Pakistan and India. Having relationship based on commonality of mutual interests with Iran is to India’s advantage vis-à-vis Pakistan. It secures India’s line of communication to Afghanistan and Central Asia and inhibits Pakistan’s using of Muslim sympathy card to drum up support against India in international forum.

Regional stability is the key to successful execution of India’s current diplomatic policy of concurrently engaging with mutually antagonistic major power centers in the region. This policy is now unraveling.

US – Iran confrontation has already adversely impacted India’s commercial interests in the giant Farzad-B gas field in the Persian Gulf and the Chabahar- Zahedan railway line construction project. Further impact on India’s strategic and economic stake in the ongoing development of Chabahar port in Iran is distinct possibility in the near future.

Similarly, the Israel-Palestine conflict is severely straining India’s engagement with both the states.

Future Portends

China’s emergence from the shadows as the strategic partner of Iran portends a volatile future for West Asia. Iran, as the undisputed leader of the Shia Muslim Ummah, with overt support of China is likely to increase the severity and frequency of conflicts with Israel by non-state proxies of Iran in Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria. Saudi Arabia too will be confronted with increased cross-border threats to its petrochemical infrastructure.

The continued presence of Russia in Syria, and military and economic support to Iran by China will impact decisive reactions by Israel and Saudi Arabia.

A stronger Chinese presence in West Asia, along with continued presence of Russia in Syria will impact US disengagement from West Asia to pivot to South East Asia.

This may induce US to push Saudi Arabia to exert pressure on Iran by actively supporting Sunni Muslim separatism in Iraq and cross border Kurdish nationalism in Iraq-Turkey-Iran triangle.

With impending withdrawal of US Coalition forces from Afghanistan, severe strife and collapse of the state into warlordism are distinct possibilities.

Strife in West Asia is here to stay.

Footnote on Israel Palestine Imbroglio

It all reminds me of Rudyard Kipling's famous words "East is east and west is west and ne'er the twain shall meet, till both stand together in front of God's judgment seat." One has to just substitute the cardinal directions with Israel Palestine. 

The conflict is irrevocable being rooted in the culture and religion of The Promised Land and The Land of Forefathers. 

Shorn off all diplomatic cover, it is not in the hands of Hamas/Palestine to deliver on the existential threat factor of Israel, as their reins lie with their paymasters beyond their boundaries, that is Iran. 

The existing living space for Palestine is not enough for long-term survival, industry and commerce. 2 million Palestinian Arabs are cramped in 363 square kilometers. That works out to around 5500 per square kilometer, without adequate source of revenue, water and split into two unconnected parts. 

Israel certainly doesn't have the land to cede, as their very existence is at threat. 

For peace to be equitable the existential threat faced by the two needs to be addressed, and the key to that lies in economic upliftment and living space.