THE BIG PICTURE OF

ENTWINED US DEEP STATE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2024 AND UKRAINE WAR

THE BIG PICTURE OF ENTWINED US DEEP STATE, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2024, AND UKRAINE WAR

While the ever broadening Ukraine war truly reflects the comprehensive struggle for global supremacy, the winds of change in the forthcoming US Presidential elections of 2024 herald an equally antagonistic struggle between the Old and the New Age US industry Moghuls, for influence over the US ‘deep state’. The combined impact of the two fights for supremacy portend the imminence of the most destructive global wars.” – Col RS Sidhu

 

Backdrop

“…A strong and friendly Russia would serve US and NATO interests better in checkmating China, their acknowledged number one adversary. The US would have been well advised to drive a wedge between Russia and China. But all attempts previously by former President Trump to forge a friendly relationship with Russia were foiled by its military-industrial, and energy lobbies…It is these lobbies which are driving US policy vis a vis Russia, driving the Bear and the Dragon into a close but uncomfortable embrace… Earlier in the 1970s, when faced with USSR led Communist challenge, US under Nixon – Kissinger leadership had engineered a rapprochement with China to weaken the Communist bloc...”

The above words, closely mirroring the future policy rationalisations now being articulated by the two leading Republican US Presidential hopefuls for 2024, are actually extracts from the post “US Dilemma Over Ukraine Crisis & Global Geopolitical Power Shift” datelined 24 February 2022, full text accessible at link below

https://valleysandvalour.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-dilemma-over-ukraine-crisis.html

The US ‘Deep State’ Geoeconomics Agenda Overriding Core Interests

The presence and influence of policy lobbyists in US polity is legally established. The four major lobby domains comprising the military-industrial complex, energy, pharma, and the evangelical sectors, may be loosely termed as the ‘Deep State’ within the US, owing to their overarching influence over the apex governance hierarchy in US.

Whereas the First Gulf War was fought ostensibly to free Kuwait from Iraqi occupation, the Second Gulf War, under the garb of divesting Iraq of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, was all about controlling the oil rich economy of the region. Behind the scenes power and influence essayed by the US military-industrial complex is best summed up by the two decades of wasteful expenditure incurred in Afghanistan. The reluctance of Pentagon to disengage from Afghanistan despite attempts by successive White House Presidential regimes to move out from this unproductive quagmire is well documented and is adequate hint of the decisive hold of this lobby on foreign and defence policy organs of US Government. Even the finally White House enforced pulling out from Afghanistan was resisted till the bitter end, resulting in a mismanaged withdrawal rivalling the US departure from Vietnam in 1975.

Their leverage over the US foreign policy is best realised from the impact of the ‘Covid 19 pandemic’ and the ongoing ‘Ukraine conflict’ on the profit margins and the scale of economics of the operations of the four named lobby domains.  

The US pharmaceutical industry generated US Dollar 550 billion annual revenue in 2021, post ‘Covid 19 pandemic’. The five largest pharmaceutical companies, Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, AbbVie, and Pfizer, declared combined earnings of US Dollar 82 billion in 2022, an US Dollar 8 billion increase from 2021. These are profits on record, despite legal financial sleights of hand, such as hiving off some of their business verticals into separate business entities.

Post commencement of the ‘Ukraine conflict’ on 24^th of February 2022 and the consequential economic sanctions, just five of the biggest oil companies, Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies, recorded profits amounting to nearly US Dollar 200 billion in that very year, and paid record US Dollar 110 billion dividend and share repurchases to investors.

The US armaments companies earned a gross revenue of US Dollar 200 billion plus in 2022, against the 2021 revenues of US Dollar 103 billion.

The US evangelical industry generated a combined annual revenue of US Dollar 378 billion. Two-thirds of total charity donations in US are to religious institutes, with much of these donations being funnelled into religious propagation across the world.

The Widening Ukraine Conflict

Eminent US and European geoeconomics and geopolitical think tanks and more aware political leaders have long been pointing to China as the real challenger to the global supremacy of the US led West Bloc. There have been ample warnings that westward expansion of NATO is against the core interest of the US and EU, and would inevitably lead to conflict with Russia.

Much like the weapons of mass destruction falsehoods during the Second Gulf War, the propaganda of Russian military not having the combat potential to sustain prolonged military operations in Ukraine, and collapse of Russian economy under the weight of US and EU economic sanctions, is falling apart.

Instead, its Ukraine which is on the verge of economic and military collapse. Industrial and agrarian production is negligible leading to drying up of revenue. Half of its 41 million population is displaced, with unprecedented 14 million of its citizens having taken refuge outside the country, fuelling acute social tensions across the EU countries. Large scale involvement of mercenaries in the conflict zone, coupled with weak accounting of weapons and munitions are creating new grey zone security challenges for the EU states. The economies of EU countries are under increasingly unsustainable stress because of need to maintain Ukraine militarily as well as economically, additional budgetary support for maintenance of refugees, increased subsidies on energy and food grains, upgrading own military combat potential, double digit inflation rates, and weakening of national currencies. Ukraine, is surviving merely on the military and economic largesse of US and EU.

With near collapse of Ukrainian offensive capability, the US is now focusing on propping up Poland to enter the fray in the near future. Since the launch of Russian ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine in February 2022, Poland is feverishly engaged in strengthening its armed forces. Poland is shedding its old heavy weapons as aid to Ukraine, and replacing them by purchasing new heavy weapons from the US and South Korea worth more than US Dollar 16 billion. Currently Poland is fielding a 175,000 strong military. Poland's defense budget for the current year is a record US Dollar 34 billion, broadly 4% of its GDP, the highest percentage amongst NATO.

Russia is already signalling its awareness of the imminent widening of the conflict horizon towards Poland, by deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, its enclave adjoining Poland, and in Belarus which has common land border with Poland. Large scale movement of Russian Wagner mercenary group forces into Belarus, and forward deployment of the hitherto uncommitted Russian strike forces capable of a decisive thrust towards ‘Suwalki Gap’ in Poland, can be ignored by the NATO only at its own peril.

All battlefield indicators now point to any looming defeat in the coming battlefield being met by the impacted adversary with escalation into the tactical nuclear domain.

Impending Change of Guard in US Deep State

The Old Moghuls of US industry, representing the energy and armaments lobby, have suborned the sovereign might of the US government in pursuit of profits by exploiting ‘deep earth’ mineral resources across the globe, through all means fair and foul. Today it is difficult to distinguish the US ‘deep state’ from the ‘deep earth’ interests. Pursuing a widening of the Ukraine war agenda for greater windfall profits, despite the war being detrimental to core US interests, fairly represents the extent of subornment of the apex US governance hierarchy.

The Neo Moghuls of US new age technology industry are actively pursuing diverting the sovereign might of the US government to assist their exploitation of ‘deep space’ natural resources. Heavy involvement of the US in Ukraine war is adversely impacting US global supremacy, thereby, impairing US capability to sculpt a favourable playing field for its ‘deep space’ industry.

The two leading Republican contenders for the US Presidency, Donald Trump and Vivek Ramaswamy are both against the Ukraine war, look at Russia as a natural ally against the real adversary China, and champion US first ideology. Donald Trump during his US Presidency couldn’t openly pursue his external agenda of a rapprochement with Russia, because of investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 US Presidential election, and allegations of business interest conflict.

Their declared stance to stop the Ukraine war has resulted in a convergence of interests with the powerful US Neo Moghuls representing ‘deep space’ interests.  It’s the first time that this proposed turnaround in US foreign policy is being publicly talked about by a serious presidential candidate. Under the given circumstances the endorsement of their candidacy by Elon Musk and other Neo Moghuls representing new age technology US multinationals is a natural alliance that may turn out to be mutually fruitful well into the future.

There are several factors that favour this alliance emerging as victorious in 2024.

The broad appeal of Donald Trump with the core Republican voters, is further enlarged by the greater connect of Vivek Ramaswamy with the young voters. The young generation will be more connected to him than Joe Biden, the leading geriatric of the Democrats. This is the very generation where there’s already great unease of getting sucked to fight the NATO war in Europe.

A Donald Trump/Vivek Ramaswamy ticket is the ideal foil to the ongoing legal attempts to debar the former from running for US Presidency. Their ideas are as close as can be in a political environment. The possibility of the former being neutralised through the legal process, sets up Ramaswamy as the best bet to don the legacy of Donald Trump and secure his hardcore voter support base.

Reputed veterans connected to the US government defence and security establishment are vocal in their opposition to US involvement in widening the Ukraine conflict. Substantial support from the extensive and influential US veteran fraternity is assured to this foreign policy gambit of the Republicans.

The Neo Mughals are aflush with funds, so essential to run political influence campaigns, and entice the very ‘deep state’ away from the ‘deep earth’ interests. Their substantial support shall be crucial, and may be the difference between victory and defeat.

Assessing the Future Probabilities

Continuance of the current US Presidency into a second term after 2024 shall inevitably entail a widening of the Ukraine conflict into a nuclear exchange. US led NATO alliance will get fully sucked into this war effort, thereby denuding itself of the capability to effectively intervene against opportune Chinese offensive actions against US allies towards the far away Indo-Pacific maritime region. While Russia too may be neutralised, the widened conflict panorama shall definitely sound the death knell of the global supremacy being enjoyed by the US led West Bloc.

A nuclear catastrophe shall adversely impact even the non-participant countries. Food famines, reduction in industrial production, disruptions in maritime trade and global supply chain, very high inflation, health pandemics, environment devastation, shall severely contract national economies across the globe.

A Republican win in the 2024 US Presidential elections is seemingly the only way out of escaping the coming global cataclysm. However, this too may have its own consequences. A foreseen Republican victory could induce the ‘deep earth’ lobby through the US ‘deep state’ to telescope the time frame to widen the Ukraine conflict horizon. Countering this reaction will be critical. The time frame for such a reaction shall lie in the spring of 2024. Thereafter the dynamics of the US elections themselves shall preclude undertaking any such folly.   

Options for India

India is currently at a critical juncture, with the ongoing restructuring of its armed forces, and its economic growth factored on a stable maritime trade environment. India is withstanding China’s pressure to a considerable extent because of the implied US assistance in the eventuality of a military showdown with China. A US-Russia rapprochement shall best serve Indian national interests. On the other hand, a widening of the Ukraine conflict shall place severe restraints on its policy options.

The inevitability of US and NATO being sucked into a direct conflict against Russia in Europe, shall put a question mark on US ability to assist India to counter a full blown military operation by China.

The metamorphosis of the US ‘deep state’ alignment from ‘deep earth’ to ‘deep space’ interests shall bring in new dynamics in US-India relations. Sculpting a favourable playing field for US new age technology MNCs, shall present new conflict of interests between US and India, which the latter shall need to anticipate and negotiate with due care.

The eventuality of Russian involvement in a wider conflagration with NATO will impact the availability of continued supply of low cost energy resource, and the serviceability of Russian origin major weapons held by Indian military. Coupled with factoring the inevitable trade and supply chain disruptions, this will have a major impact on both the economy and military preparedness against China.

Prioritising of defense preparedness on a war footing, and factoring policies in advance to soften the impact of global economic disruptions shall need to be accorded primacy. The primary foreign policy objective at this stage should be to avoid getting involved in any major military operations, to the extent that shall be feasible.

In the internal domain, the general elections in India shall be over only by March 2024. That leaves very little time for the current political dispensation holding the reins of the government to devote its full resources in readying the country for all external and internal eventualities. One of the better option would be to prepone the general elections to coming December/January period, in supreme national interest. But that itself shall be a political consideration.