Valleys and Valour

ASIA PORTENDS FOR 2020-2025 “Essaying the excuse of ‘stab in the back’ is the strongest indication of incompetency in geopolitics and military affairs and should logically invite immediate sacking!”  The outcome of two events by November 2020 shall dictate the geostrategic course of Asia for the next five years. First is the survival or downfall of Xi Jinping as China’s President for Life, General Secretary of Communist Party of China and Chairman of Central Military Commission of China. Survival of Xi Jinping beyond November 2020 will be the clearest indicator of China continuing to march on the confrontationist course set by him. The other is the victory or defeat of US President Donald Trump in his Presidential bid for the second consecutive term in November 2020. His victory will signal the continuance of US policy to aggressively challenge China in its backyard of SCS. On the other hand the defeat of the incumbent President will entail a lame duck Presidency till January 2021, fol

“Rise of a challenger to an established regional or global power is invariably disruptive of geopolitical peace.” GENERAL In the geostrategic circles, the 21st Century is already being talked of as the Asian century, wherein the dynamics of forces being generated by the rivalry between US and China, and Bharat and China on the other hand, will deeply influence the discourse of international relations the world over. Within Asia the primary factor which is shaping the geostrategic alignments is the energy security needs of China. Since almost a decade one of the most anticipated event horizon in the geostrategic space has been the rise of China as a challenger to US supremacy in Asia and the world at large. History is mute testament to any such climb of a challenger being disruptive to regional and world peace. China’s upsurge is no different. To the student of history it is quite interesting to note great similarities in the ascent of China in Asia and the earlier disruptive rise of Na

(Updated commentary, as on April 2014, from the author’s standpoint on the key aspects of the original article. The article penned in the second half of 1993 and published in January 1994, has stood the test of time of more than two decades.) Foreign Policy Objectives of Modern China Global Objectives . China has more or less succeeded in achieving Great Power status. Nuclear Weapons and Blue Water Navy . Currently it has the third largest nuclear stockpile and an ocean going navy with two indigenously manufactured aircraft carriers scheduled to join service in near future. Economic Power . The Chinese economy is already second largest in the world and is projected to cross US economy in GDP terms by 2040. It has also developed huge trade surplus against majority of large economies of the world and continues to be one of the most dynamic and fastest growing. Regional Objectives . The influence of China is truly established as the pre-eminent power in Asia. The Shanghai Security Coop

(Published in Trishul, a Triservice journal of Defence Services Staff College Wellington (India), Volume VI No 2 – January 1994 , and reproduced with their kind permission.) Author’s Note  (Even during my school days I found reading books on military campaigns very interesting. Subsequently as a student of history during my graduate and postgraduate years I found the history of China, Japan and Tibet very fascinating. 1990s was the time when the Indian strategic establishment started shifting its focus from Pakistan to look at China as the long term threat. It came naturally to me to write this article, in 1993, based on almost two decades of my insight on the subject.) Introduction For centuries, China regarded herself as the Central Flowery Kingdom, the only ‘Civilisation’ on Earth, and it’s ruler as T’ien-Tzu, the Son of Heaven. There has been a two thousand years old tradition to view China as the centre of the Universe. All the Chinese leaders from Sun Yat-Sen to Chiang Kai-Shek t

This article is published by the Centre for Joint Warfare Studies (CENJOWS) . Read it here:  https://cenjows.in/article-detail?id=310

INDARMY TOUR OF DUTY REFORMS  This article was first published in August 2020 by  the Centre for Joint Warfare Studies (CENJOWS) - Veteran COL RS Sidhu   BACKDROP The establishment of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) and Department of Military Affairs (DMA) is the first tranche of the long overdue process of higher Military and Bureaucratic reforms. Infact, between the two, the import of DMA is more far reaching as it brings the Armed Forces into the governance structure of the country for the first time in the history of independent India. As in the first case, there is no formal announcement of the impending Tour of Duty (TOD) reforms. Nor is there any clarity of the contours that shall shape these reforms. From previous experience it may be deduced that the second tranche of the reforms in the lower hierarchy shall be equally far reaching. The TOD reforms seem to have been based on the TOD service in the US Armed Forces. Public statements of ministers and senior officials of

This article is published in the book "UNDERSTANDING CHINA - MODERNISATION OF ARMED FORCES" by the Centre for Joint Warfare Studies (CENJOWS) . Read it here:  https://cenjows.in/monographs

This article is published by the Centre for Joint Warfare Studies (CENJOWS) . Read it here:  https://cenjows.in/article-detail?id=235

This article is published by the Centre for Joint Warfare Studies (CENJOWS) . Read it here:  https://cenjows.in/article-detail?id=234

This article is published by the Centre for Joint Warfare Studies (CENJOWS) . Read it here:  https://cenjows.in/article-detail?id=230

Backdrop Timeline of Deaths of Indian Nuclear Scientists 1966 : Dr Homi Jhangir Bhabha, Indian nuclear physicist, died in an air crash in 1966 in the Swiss Alps near Mont Blanc, shortly after he publicly stated India could produce a nuclear device in a short time. Debris of the Air India flight 101 was never found. Conspiracy theories pointed finger at CIA. 2004 : An armed group with sophisticated weaponry allegedly tried to abduct an official from India's Nuclear Power Corporation (NPC). 2004 : NPC employee, Ravi Mule murdered. June 2009 : Death of Nuclear scientist Lokanathan Mahalingam classified as suicide. The body was found 5 days after death in a river and was cremated before the DNA tests were released. Dec 2009 : Umang Singh and Partha Pratim Bag young nuclear researchers at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), found burnt to death in a mysterious fire. Forensic reports said there was nothing in the room that was inflammable which indicated foul play in the case. Feb

Unstable Times In Unstable Neighbourhood 1. Demographics In The Arc of Terrorism Arc of terrorism in our neighbourhood. High growth rate of population. Very poor literacy rate. Very high rate of employment. Young age profile of population. Unrepresentative Governments. Easy availability of low cost recruits for terror. 2. Demographics of India – Youth To The Fore Oldest civilisation. Largest population – 1.25 billion. Youngest age profile amongst nations. 75% below 35 years of age. For own and World’s sake India just cannot afford to fail. Key Deliverables For India To Succeed 3. Path To Development Stabilise growth rate of population. Increase reach of quality education. Develop industry ready skilled workforce. Push through digital economy. Shift focus from subsidies to jobs/self-employment. Become country with export surplus skilled manpower. Enhance governance through citizen activism. Winds Of Change In India – Exciting Times 4. Changing Signs State with a spine. E