POSTSCRIPT APRIL 2014 - THRUST & LOGIC OF CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY

(Updated commentary, as on April 2014, from the author’s standpoint on the key aspects of the original article. The article penned in the second half of 1993 and published in January 1994, has stood the test of time of more than two decades.)

Foreign Policy Objectives of Modern China

  • Global Objectives. China has more or less succeeded in achieving Great Power status.
  • Nuclear Weapons and Blue Water Navy. Currently it has the third largest nuclear stockpile and an ocean going navy with two indigenously manufactured aircraft carriers scheduled to join service in near future.
  • Economic Power. The Chinese economy is already second largest in the world and is projected to cross US economy in GDP terms by 2040. It has also developed huge trade surplus against majority of large economies of the world and continues to be one of the most dynamic and fastest growing.
  • Regional Objectives. The influence of China is truly established as the pre-eminent power in Asia. The Shanghai Security Cooperation Organisation (SSCO) is the instrument of projection of Chinese influence in the Central Asian region primarily to secure energy supplies for her ever expanding economy. ASEAN and other countries in the region, right up to Australia, are sensitive to Chinese interests.
  • Establishing Hegemony. With the restructuring of its economy and modernisation of armed forces, China has already commenced expansion of her sphere of influence Eastwards into the South China Sea and the Sea of Japan with increased belligerence. This increase in belligerence is distinctly visible even along her Southern regions, especially in Tibet and borders with India.
  • Prevent the establishment of any rival centre of power in the region. Leaving aside South Korea, Japan and India all other neighbours of China have fallen under its sphere of influence, with varying degrees of subservience to Chinese interests. China continues to intimidate the countries inimical to her interests through increased show of force. This is necessitating the US to pivot to the Pacific region to countervail Chinese influence.
  • Sino-Russian Interests. Currently China sees a convergence of interest with Russia owing to energy supply dependency and mutual requirement of checking Islamic extremism from the Central Asian region, and to countervail US power projection capabilities in Asia.
  • Sino-Japanese Rivalry. Japan is strategically placed to act as a bulwark against any Chinese push for dominance in the Pacific region and deny China access control along its regional maritime trade routes. China sees an increased convergence of US, Japanese and Indian interests in countervailing the former’s rise. Japan’s increased military activism is also perceived as a threat by China, necessitating attempts at neutralising Japan through show of force.
  • Sino-US Cold War. Despite the strong economic linkages between the Sino-US economies there is no denying the effective cold war undercurrents between the two countries. Heavy US presence in South Korea and Japan gives it the capability to choke Chinese maritime trade at a critical juncture. Similarly, establishment of US presence in Central Asian region gives it the capability to cut off China from its critical overland energy supply lines. An economically and strategically resurgent India has the capability to pose a serious threat from the South as also deny access to the Indian Ocean maritime trade routes. This leaves China with the option to continue strengthening economic engagement on the one hand and wean away India, Japan and South Korea from US influence through a policy of carrot and stick.
Sino-India Relationship. Boundary dispute, Tibet, sharing of river waters, sourcing of energy supplies, trade and commerce are the key sources of dispute between the countries representing two diverse cultures. China also perceives India, in alliance with US and Japan, as a stumbling block to achieving undisputed great power status. Hence, China’s engagement with India is guided by efforts to wean it away from an alliance with US through a “carrot and stick” approach.

The stick:-
  • Prop up a nuclear Pakistan to neutralise India.
  • Encircle India by military bases in adjoining countries, viz. Burma, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Pakistan, the so called “String of Pearls”.
  • Coercive projection of force along border with India.
  • Undermine Indian economy by attempts at denying sources of energy and entry to critical trade blocks.
  • Internal sabotage through fifth columns.
The Carrot:-
  • Mutually favourable solution of the border dispute.
  • Collaborative engagement vis-a-vis US & EU blocks in international fora.

Conclusion

The Chinese continue to view their country as the fulcrum around which geo-politics must rotate. As in the historical past, the basic thrust of the Chinese foreign policy still continues to be the compulsive urge to reassert China’s imperial grandeur.

21 April 2014 Col RS Sidhu, SM

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