GEOSTRATEGIC PORTENDS IN ASIA 2020-2025 - PART II

ASIA PORTENDS FOR 2020-2025

“Essaying the excuse of ‘stab in the back’ is the strongest indication of incompetency in geopolitics and military affairs and should logically invite immediate sacking!” 

The outcome of two events by November 2020 shall dictate the geostrategic course of Asia for the next five years.

First is the survival or downfall of Xi Jinping as China’s President for Life, General Secretary of Communist Party of China and Chairman of Central Military Commission of China. Survival of Xi Jinping beyond November 2020 will be the clearest indicator of China continuing to march on the confrontationist course set by him.

The other is the victory or defeat of US President Donald Trump in his Presidential bid for the second consecutive term in November 2020. His victory will signal the continuance of US policy to aggressively challenge China in its backyard of SCS. On the other hand the defeat of the incumbent President will entail a lame duck Presidency till January 2021, followed by another 2 to 3 months of settling down period of the new administration.

The latter course of event would likely provide a window of opportunity of four to six months to China to aggressively push forward with its geostrategic designs without encountering a cohesive challenge from the US. In this scenario a strong possibility exists of China launching a short and sharp offensive, in conjunction with Pakistan, against Bharat. Hence late 2020 and early 2021 will be a decisive period. Depending on geopolitical alignments, with the Himalayan passes closed, it will also be an opportune moment for Bharat to launch pre-emptive military operations against Pakistan.

Likely Course of Action by China

The most critical factor for China during this period shall be the security of its energy routes, as it lacks military potential to ensure security of its maritime trade.

CPEC and CMEC are still under development and also vulnerable to interdiction by Bharat.

Central Asian Republic countries are highly volatile and not secure for routing energy supplies.

China cannot be solely dependent on Russian energy supplies through Siberia for strategic reasons.

That leaves it with only viable alternative of diversifying energy supplies through Wakhan corridor of Afghanistan to Iran.

Hence it is likely to avoid prolonged open hostilities, and concentrate its resources to secure and diversify overland energy routes to West and Central Asia.

China has been able to establish an extended defensive parameter in the SCS region to safeguard its vulnerabilities along the Eastern coastline. It is unlikely to undertake any further provocative operations in SCS region, so as to ease pressure from US and its allies. Under extreme pressure it may even temporarily offer to enter into negotiations to resolve disputes.

That will enable China to concentrate its resources to its West, on evolving security of its overland energy routes. Towards that end, its primary focus shall be to neutralise Bharat. China shall apply concerted pressure on Bharat through all available means at its disposal, including a short and sharp open conflict, if geostrategic opportunity favours this option.

Alliance with Iran and Pakistan is vital to China’s energy security. However, because of inherent internal contradictions, China will be forced to divert major attention and resources to maintain effectiveness of this alliance.

Neutralising Pakistan, the weakest link of this alliance, should therefore be the primary focus for the opposing coalition.

Options for US

On the military front US is most likely to exert pressure on China and its allies along four points.

Indo- Pacific Theatre Command shall continue to conduct Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) in SCS and ECS, in conjunction with the nascent Quad Alliance and other friendly powers to exert pressure on China. US deployment will also provide a security umbrella to Taiwan, Japan and ASEAN countries against any further maritime threat from China.

US Central Theatre Command shall adopt offensive posture against Iran along Makran coast, as also maintain over watch to ensure open access to merchant shipping in the narrow Strait of Hormuz.

US will provide strong material and diplomatic support to Bharat for any military eventualities against China and Pakistan.

US is also likely to facilitate Sunni Muslim – Kurd coalition in Northern and Western Iraq to apply further pressure on Iran and also tie down Turkey.

On the economic front US will further expand the scope of economic and trade sanctions against China, Iran and Pakistan.

US will also pursue Chinese human rights abuses in international forums, and provide tacit support to efforts by Taiwan and Tibet Government-in-exile to achieve greater legitimacy as a sovereign entity.

Russia

Continued strife in West Asia is advantageous to Russian interests. It disrupts the West Asian energy supply, provides market for its armament industry, and keeps the religious fundamentalist forces at a safe distance from its borders. Hence, Russia shall continue with its presence in Syria.

Russia also looks at Shia Muslim predominant Iran as a bulwark against Sunni Muslim supremacy in West Asia. The latter eventuality would boost fundamentalist forces in Central Asian Republics along its Southern borders. Hence Russia shall continue to provide tacit material support to Iran.

A militarily dominant China is inimical to Russian interest. Despite extensive trade relations with China, Russia is unlikely to back any Chinese actions against Bharat. Nor is it likely to overtly support China in its confrontation with US, Japan, Taiwan, and ASEAN in SCS region.

Turkey

Turkey is a militarily powerful state, currently seeking to chart an independent course in the region. Its military intervention in Libya has brought it dangerously close to confrontation with Egypt and France.

Coupled with increasing possibility of a resurrected Kurd separatist movement gaining tract in its South Eastern region, Turkey will not have adequate resources at hand to effectively intervene in the unfolding West Asia imbroglio.

Saudi Arabia led Coalition

This coalition will continue to engage in proxy conflict with Iran led Shia alliance in Arabian Peninsula countries and in Iraq.

Israel

A deepening Iran-China strategic relationship will be a cause of most serious concern for Israel. Knowing China’s propensity for nuclear proliferation, it could speed up the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran. Hence, Israel shall oppose this alliance with all possible resources at its command. Towards this end, its collaboration with Bharat will further deepen.

Iran

Iran shall deepen strategic partnership with China and Pakistan. Flare up of Sunni separatism and Kurd nationalism in Iraq and collapse of Afghanistan into warlordism will be of serious concern to Iran and will severely restrict its ability to pursue its interests in Syria and Lebanon.

Leveraging its Chabahar port sea access to landlocked Afghanistan, Iran shall attempt to extend its influence in Southern Afghanistan. This shall be a potential flashpoint in its strategic relationship with Pakistan.

Pakistan

The deteriorating economic situation within Pakistan shall be a key factor in its facing internal centrifugal forces. With a weakened economy it lacks resources to combat separatist forces in its South, an unstable Afghanistan to its West, and increased pressure from Bharat to its East. Its economy is already hostage to heavy loans from multilateral international funding agencies. In the altered geopolitical alignments the threat in being of withdrawal of these loans will be the most critical factor in determining its future course of action.

Pakistan’s economy will be unable to withstand the fiscal shock of an open conflagration with Bharat and has no choice but to avoid open hostilities with Bharat, pressure from China notwithstanding.

Afghanistan

Unless US reverses its decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, the latter will collapse to the dynamics of China-Iran-Pakistan alliance. Mercurial warlords shall again dominate the country.

An unstable Afghanistan traditionally gives rise to fundamentalist forces. It will be a matter of great concern to Pakistan-Iran-China axis and will force their physical intervention. This in itself will invite interference from not only Russia but US and Bharat as well.

Japan

A rearmed Japan, rife with nationalist spirit, shall continue to defy Chinese attempts at intimidation and in conjunction with US will be a threat in being to Chinese maritime trade.

Japan shall also deepen its economic ties with Bharat to enable the latter to pose a greater geostrategic challenge to China from the rear.

Taiwan

Taiwan, with strong US support, shall continue to chart a geostrategic course which will be inimical to Chinese interests.

ASEAN

Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines and Brunei are ASEAN member countries directly impacted by Chinese unilateral action in claiming and enforcing its control over disputed maritime areas of SCS. Bolstered by US naval presence, the ASEAN grouping has voiced its concern over unilateral Chinese actions in the dispute.

This has provided US diplomatic support for its maritime deployment in SCS, as also assured logistics support bases in the region in Philippines and Vietnam.

Australia

After unearthing the malicious undercover effort of China to undermine its sovereignty, containing Chinese expansionist designs and belligerence shall be the cornerstone of Australian diplomacy. It shall seek stronger alignment with US, Japan and Bharat to thwart China.

NATO

The deepening of the economic crisis in European Union and reduction in US Armed Forces deployment from Europe restricts the scope of NATO engaging in major intervention in Asia-Pacific region.

Limited military support from France and UK shall however be available to US in West Asia and SE Asia region.

WAY FORWARD FOR BHARAT

“The best way out for Bharat to avoid a war with China is to actively prepare to fight the war. It will also be cheaper in the long run.”

General

The rivalry between Bharat and China shall be long drawn out and will be played out across full spectrum of conflict scenarios. Bharat has faltered in early discerning of intent of China. There is no other way to explain the military predicament it faces of a two front war from China and Pakistan.

Bharat shall now have to develop a two pronged strategy to safeguard its interests. The first shall be to focus on urgent actions to withstand the joint threat in the immediate future. Second shall be the strategy for long term impact.

Short Term

The best option for Bharat is to proactively secure a strong international alliance in its support, to deter any open conflict by its opponents.

Thereafter, at an opportune moment, launch swift pre-emptive naval and air strikes against Pakistan, the weaker opponent, to degrade its combat potential as also the surface infrastructure critical to CPEC and commercial and strategic Chinese assets in POJK.

This will provide Bharat breathing space to withstand pressure from China. Longer the wait, greater shall be the vulnerability.

Degrading Pakistan combat potential shall also adversely impact its direct intervention potential in Afghanistan.

Bharat will have to cater for a prolonged dissuasive ground deployment along the Northern borders.

Naval deployment shall have to be effected such that it’s a threat in being to choke Malacca Straits to Chinese merchant shipping. This will impose added caution on China for any attempts to pose an active ground threat along the Himalayas.

Bharat just cannot afford to let China call the shots in Nepal and needs to take proactive steps to resolve the situation in its favour. A strife torn Nepal is preferable to a Nepal acting at behest of China. The situation has to be resolved with finesse and ruthlessness.

Priority shall have to be allotted to force multipliers, electronic and cyberspace warfare assets for urgent replenishment along with war fighting equipment, munitions and supplies.

Long Term

Integrity and independence of a friendly Afghanistan has to be ensured through pursuit of active geostrategic alliances. This will divert valuable resources of China and its allies and shall assist Bharat to manage an overall favourable geostrategic environment.

An independent Tibet as a buffer between Bharat and China is in the best interest to maintain long term peace and tranquillity across the Himalayas. This should be the long term geopolitical focus for Bharat.

Well laid out diplomatic strategy needs to be executed to further own geopolitical interests with neighbouring countries.

Concerted drive by counterintelligence agencies needs to be orchestrated to uncover and weed out Chinese fifth columnists within the country. Lessons from Australian and Italian experience should be incorporated into own counter efforts.

The proposed reorganisation of Theatre Commands needs to be processed on priority. Northern Theatre Command should extend from Pir Panjal in J&K to border with Myanmar, so as to effectively counter Chinese Western Theatre Command operations in POJK and Shaksgam valley.

The Mountain Strike Corps in its present organisation is unwieldy to be employed in the assigned role in the mountains. It needs to be downsized into multiple, highly versatile, and mountain mobile Battle Groups.

Vertical intervention, Special Forces, and long range precision targeting capabilities need to be continuously strengthened.

Cyberspace being an invisible spectrum of war shall be highly vulnerable even during no war no peace scenario. There is definite requirement to fast track Cyberspace warfare capabilities.

National Security Council should be reorganised to integrate invisible spectrum warfare expertise.

The Intelligence acquisition, evaluation and dissemination setup has not been able to establish its efficacy, despite numerous recommendations for its streamlining. The Defence Intelligence Agency needs to be tasked and equipped to meet its own external intelligence inputs.

Peace time border management, especially along Northern borders, requires to be streamlined. All deployments of PMF/CAPF need to be brought under operation control of Theatre Commands.

Make in Bharat policy for defence equipment has to be given priority. The only cost effective way to combat prolonged Chinese belligerence is through self-sufficiency in defence equipment.