US ISRAEL ATTACK ON IRAN – PART II

THE BATTLE OF NERVES AND NARRATIVE

“If a battle gets prolonged against a determined adversary adept at waging asymmetric warfare, then the decision matrix gradually shifts from the domain of qualitative and quantitative technological prowess to the arena of battle of nerves and the ‘power of narrative’.” – Col RS Sidhu

Backdrop

The battlefields of Vietnam of the 1960s, Afghanistan of the 1980s and again in the first two decades of 21^st century, are standing testimony to the decisive role of ‘nerve of the leadership’ and the ‘power of narrative’ in asymmetrical conflict. The former is decisive in inducing the leadership succumbing to ‘battle fatigue’, while the ‘power of narrative’ renders the adversary ‘hors de combat’ by striking at the roots of the support base.

Though the ongoing conflict of US and Israel against Iran is still in its early days, the role of the ‘power of narrative’ is already gaining centre stage. The impact of this factor is most distinctively visible in the global opinion split in ‘for and against’ camps of the protagonists. This has resulted in the ‘heart’ playing a more decisive role then the ‘head’ in even the most seasoned ‘strategic analysts’ appraising the ‘rights and wrongs’ of the case, rather than the ‘ground realities.’

Early Comparatives of the Wars in Rus and the Levant

The Russians opened their ‘Special Military Operation’ (SMO) in Ukraine, with a military strike by their special forces to seize the airfields of Kiev, capital city of Ukraine, and Kharkiv to stun the Ukraine government and military into surrender within ten days. The failure of the coup de main mission is already prolonging the war into its fifth year.

The US and Israel too opened their attacks against Iran by launching a decapitating strike against Iranian political and military hierarchy on 28 February 2026 to force capitulation by Iran within seven days. But despite achieving spectacular success, they failed to achieve the anticipated unconditional surrender by Iran.

Iran disrupted the US – Israel strategy by taking recourse to asymmetric warfare and decentralise the executive authority to launch offensive missile strikes on pre-determined geostrategic and economic targets in the entire region of Levant and beyond. By innovative employment of their surface launched autonomous weapon systems, Iran has succeeded in widening the conflict zone from the Arabian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, thereby, shifting the centre of gravity of the conflict theatre away from their mainland into the maritime zone. Here it’s interesting to note, that the two powerful carrier strike groups of the US Navy have already been forced to temporarily pull away from the restricted maritime conflict zone into safer open ocean waters.

Russian failure to correctly assess the combat potential of Ukraine armed forces, launching the SMO with comparatively inferior ‘boot strength’ employing approximately 100,000 troops against 250,000 Ukraine Army, and intelligence support to Ukraine by NATO were at the root of the Russian military failure to accomplish the military mission in a swift timeframe.

US – Israel too have erred in their initial assessment of Iran combat potential, launching the offensive with no recourse to ‘boot strength’, and not anticipating impact of Iranian access to Russian and Chinese intelligence support.

Quite the like the Russian SMO, the US – Israel combine too is being forced into recalibration of their war strategy to impose their will over Iranian leadership.

‘Battle of Nerves’

The conflict is inexorably morphing into a ‘battle of attrition’, where it shall be the ‘nerve of the leadership’ that shall be a decisive factor. More the conflict prolongs, greater shall be the negatives for the protagonists for the involved nations, and personally for their respective leaderships. This is where the ‘nerve of leadership’ shall be decisive.

Iran’s strength lies in its arsenal of surface launched autonomous weapon systems, and its capability to deny navigation of the critical Straits of Hormuz. US – Israel rule the skies and the maritime waters off Iran, effectively cutting it off from external material support. Iran’s energy trade, the lifeline of its economy, is under siege. Cut off from external material support, economic collapse of Iran is a matter of time.

The US – Israel core strength lies in their domination of Iranian airspace and maritime waters. However, their vulnerability is their relative weakness in combating the Iranian swarm employment of its surface launched autonomous weapon systems. Additionally, the lacunae of ‘boot strength’ is washing away all the gains of qualitative and quantitative technological superiority. A prolonged conflict makes the economics of war prohibitive for US – Israel, their regional allies, as well as the countries dependent on the Gulf for their energy supplies.    

The personal survival of the leadership of the protagonist countries is also at stake, dependent on the outcome of the ‘short and sharp’ conflict. Under the circumstances, whose leadership nerve gives way first will be the decisive factor.

Midway Course Correction

The US – Israel are feverishly reworking their war strategy by embodying asymmetrical allies into their war effort. Towards this end, they are attempting to induce the Kurdish rebel minorities in the Northeast of mountainous Iran, and the Baluch rebels in the relatively open Southeast of Iran to join the battle. What role the Pakistan military is coerced into by the US in this course correction is as yet ambiguous. How far this strategy succeeds in influencing the outcome is uncertain, as one of the unintended consequences of employing this strategy could lead to an obverse outcome of deepening Iranian support for the government in power.   

The most demonstrative lesson emerging from this conflict is the relative ineffectiveness of the anti-missile defense radars and interceptor systems to provide safe coverage from modern hypersonic weapon platforms. Though the US and Israel rule the Iranian airspace, they have been unable to successfully defend their key vulnerable areas from Iranian hypersonic weapons. In this respect the relative effectiveness of the Indian air defence network against Pakistan drone swarms and surface launched autonomous weapon systems during ‘Operation Sindoor’ is notable, unless of course it is ascribed to well-known Pakistan military incompetencies.