SETS AFLAME THE GREEN CRESCENT IN
WEST ASIA
“West Asia straddles the junction of the continents of Europe, Asia, and Africa, is the birthplace of the three Abrahamic
religions, harbours huge petroleum reserves, is the epicenter of world trade
routes of importance, and now the nerve
centre of the largest global conflagration since Gulf War II.” – Col RS Sidhu
The US and Israel commenced joint air warfare campaign against
Iran on 28 February 2026 by naming their military operations as ‘Epic
Fury’, and ‘Roar of the Lion’, respectively. Interestingly, 28
February 2026 coincides with 11 Ramadan 1447 of the Islamic calendar; Ramadan
being the ninth month of the Hijri calendar, the date works out to be
the Islamic 9/11.
Iran has responded by naming its retaliatory
military action as Operation ‘True Promise 4’.
POTUS Donald Trump has declared “dismantling
of Iran’s military and missile capabilities”, response to “imminent
threats” posed by Iran’s nuclear program and its “destabilising regional
activities”, as the overall aim of its military operations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu has termed “preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons”,
and “eliminate an existential threat to Israel”, as the aim of its
military operation.
The Iranian ‘Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps’ (IRGC) in their declaratory statement have termed Operation ‘True
Promise 4’ as the “first phase” of their retaliation against the “regional
targets of the aggressor enemy”.
The launching of the US – Israel
offensive strikes in broad daylight is a distinct departure from the earlier
offensive strikes, which were conducted during hours of darkness. It is also
the first major military operation conducted by the US on a Muslim country during
the month of Ramdan. On the other hand, Iran has termed their retaliatory
strikes as first phase. These facets point to the strong probability of
prolonged major military operations and escalation of the conflict into
the maritime zone.
The Global Stage
The repercussions of flaming the 5000
kms east-west arc of fifteen West Asia Green Crescent countries, the centre of
gravity of the two billion global muslim ummah, and source of third of the
global oil and 16% of world natural gas supply, combined with the outbreak of
hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan, shall reverberate across the whole
40,000 kms circumference of the earth.
Within West Asia, Iran enjoys a
unique geostrategic advantage through its dominating presence on the Strait of
Hormuz, and providing major land access into Central Asia from the Indian Ocean
Region. Geopolitically, too, Iran gains enormously from possessing the largest demographic
mass amongst all West Asia countries, being adorned with the mantle of global
Shia Muslim leadership, and the widespread presence of Shia Muslims across the region.
All combined, give Iran the unique ability to
exercise geopolitical influence across the entire West Asia region.
On the other hand, Israel,
fully allied with US, has emerged as the most powerful military force in the
region, and a strong bastion in supporting US interests in the region.
Iran, through orchestrating a web of proxy Shia Muslim terrorist organisations in
the region, has set itself
on a collision course with Israel, making it the sole military threat to
Israel dominance of West Asia. Hence, the geopolitical necessity for the US
– Israel combine to neutralise Iran.
Evaluation of Military Strikes
The US and Israel have formidable
quantitative and qualitative superiority over Iran military, in air dominance, air
defence, electronic warfare, surveillance, precision guided munitions, and
maritime area dominance. However, they do not have the requisite combat
potential for an effective land invasion.
Iran’s only military advantage is the
possession of drone swarms, and long range guided missiles, some with
hypersonic capabilities that enable them to avoid air defences to strike any
target in West Asia. However, their missile storage and mobile missile launchers
are highly vulnerable to air and precision guided weapon strikes. Overall, Iran
lacks effective air defence assets to exercise control over its airspace, and has
combat potential to inflict only limited damage on US and Israel targets in the
region.
US and Israel opened their military
campaign by targeting the top Iranian political and military leadership in the
first wave of attacks, killing their Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei alongwith his immediate family,
the Defence Minister Amir Nasizadeh, the Army and IRGC Chief of Staff Maj Gen
Mohammad Bagheri, Commander in Chief of IRGC Maj Gen Hossein Salami, IRGC
Aerospace Force commander Maj Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Commander of IRGC Ground
Force Mohammad Pakpour, senior IRGC military commanders in charge of the Iran missile
program, and Iranian military intelligence senior hierarchy.
This has decapitated the
Iranian political and military hierarchy, effectively degrading an
effective military response to the US – Israel joint offensive campaign.
Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan were heavily
attacked by air and long range precision guided munitions, severely damaging
them. Fereydoon Abbasi and five
other nuclear scientists were also killed in the initial air strikes, dealing a
severe setback to the Iranian nuclear development program by a decade.
The Iran air defence assets have
been effectively neutralised enabling establishing of air dominance over Iranian
airspace by US and Israel. Storage and missile launch infrastructure sites in
western Iran, alongwith
energy infrastructure in central and
southern Iran, have been targeted. Iran possesses approximately 200 quantity of
mobile launchers for their missiles, and only two missile manufacturing sites. As
the operations progress, the Iranian missile launch capability will be severely
degraded. With the US and Israel in control of Iranian air and maritime
space, it precludes Iran from replenishing its war fighting equipment losses.
Military command and control
infrastructure, intelligence set up, and governance facilities in Tehran, Qom, Tabriz,
and other major Iranian population centres have been targeted. This may loosen
the grip of the Iranian government over its citizens, and could facilitate a civil
uprising. However, the absence of an effective political opposition makes such
a scenario unlikely.
The focus of the initial Iran retaliatory
missile and drone strikes was on the US military bases in Saudi Arabia, Oman,
Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Jordan, and Qatar; and Tel Aviv, the capital of Israel,
and its port city of Haifa. Iran aimed at swamping the Israel air defence by
launching mixed package of drone swarms and long range missiles, and succeeded
in partially damaging civil infrastructure in targeted built up areas.
A major impact of the military operations
has been to disrupt the air and maritime traffic in the West Asia region, which
shall have adverse global economic and supply chain impact.
Assessed Future Probabilities
One fifth of global oil and natural
gas trade passes through Strait of Hormuz, a maritime choke point under effective
domination of Iran. Spreading of the conflict into the maritime domain will
most probably result in Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and is the biggest
realpolitik aspect of major concern for the world community. The IRGC is well
known to have trained and rehearsed executing this contingency.
The enforced closure of the Strait
of Hormuz shall also distress the economy of Iran, and its close ally
China. It is, therefore, appreciated that Iran is likely to employ this
scenario as a threat in being to safeguard the present regime, or as an option
of last resort.
The enforced closure of strait of
Hormuz is unlikely to have major impact on the economy of US and Israel.
However, it shall have major adverse impact on the economy of China and India,
its closest global economic competitors. 40% of China’s oil supply is
sourced from West Asia region, disruptions in the energy supplies from the
region shall impact its economy severely. India’s annual oil imports amount
to US $2 billion, hence, for every US $1 global price rise in oil, India’s
energy import shall surge by US $ 2 billion. With an anticipated surge in
global oil prices of nearly US $15 to 30, the cumulative annual impact on
Indian economy could be to the tune of US $ 150 to 300 billion.
The prospect of China pursuing
forced annexation of Taiwan, by taking advantage of deep US military
involvement in West Asia, are minimal. China’s military intervention
capabilities have been severely weakened owing to large scale ouster of at
least nine of its senior most military officials in the preceding three months,
and the strong likelihood of more senior military hierarchy under surveillance
owing to doubts on their loyalty to the political regime in power.
Russia and China are unlikely to
militarily intervene in support of Iran owing to their weak Out Of Area (OOA) military intervention
capabilities. Russia is further constrained by its heavy military engagement in
war with Ukraine.
Militarily, Iran does not have the
capability to undertake sustained aerial offensive strikes against regional
targets of its adversaries. It also lacks military wherewithal to defend itself
against sustained offensive airstrikes by US and Israel.
The Iranian regime in power is
unlikely to comply with the stated demands of US and Israel to dismantle its
nuclear program and proxy terror network in West Asia. It will likely result in overthrow
of the ruling regime.
The only viable military option
available to Iran is to spread the conflagration to other US allied countries
in the region, by targeting their economic assets and population centres, and
enforcing closure of the maritime choke points in the region.
Iran shall likely exhaust its
offensive military potential in four to seven days of active military
operations. That’s
also the likely time frame for the US and Israel to achieve their stated war
aim of decimating Iranian nuclear program.
The Iranian political leadership has
the desired resilience to survive the US and Israel military onslaught and
rebuild its hierarchy.
However, the Iranian military and doctrinaire influence in the West Asia
will be difficult to be rebuilt. It shall enable Israel wielding
decisive influence in the West Asia, with strong backing of the US.
Impact on India
For India it shall be mixed bag of
impacts. In the short term, India will have to absorb the negative
impact of sharp rise in global energy prices. In the long run, the assessed
outcome of this short war shall introduce relative stability in the region. India
is likely to emerge as a strong stabilising force in the region, which shall offer
additional markets for its trade in Central Asia and Africa.
The Pakistan – Afghanistan conflict
too shall have favourable geopolitical impact on India. It shall enhance centrifugal
forces in Pakistan’s outlying provinces, while forcing Pakistan to deploy
additional military resources on its western borders with Afghanistan.
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