REFLECTIONS 2025 & NEW YEAR GREETINGS 2026

(VIKRAM SAMVAT 2083)

“As the ‘bhu:’ (earth) energies commence their rise to be the dominant ‘tattva’ (element), the ‘Vikram Samvat 2083’ is slated to release pent up energies across tectonic, ethnic, and national boundaries, activating long dormant geological, prejudicial, and geopolitical hotspots. However, the silver lining is ‘greater the disruptions in 2026 lesser the eruptions in 2027!’. More the release of destructive energies in 2026, lesser shall be the outburst of ‘Global Chaos’ around 2027!” – Col RS Sidhu 

 

Dear Readers,

2025 lived up to its promise of being the ‘Year of the Omen’. With the ‘apas’ (water) energies as the dominant ‘panchbhut’ (five elements), it wreaked predicted natural devastations across the globe, and yet blazed down geopolitical fires somewhat. While in 2024 the US was at the receiving end of the ‘Chinese Chakravyuh’, in 2025 it rose to the fore uniquely orchestrating geopolitical realignments by seeding ‘chaos’ that forced China on the backfoot.

In the Kievan Rus and the Levant, the assessed tacit acceptance of Russian dominance in the region of Rus, in exchange for Israeli dominance of the Levant, is unsteadily but inexorably, moving towards the final phase. But this itself is shaping new geopolitical dynamics. 

In Europe the fault lines between the ‘Old Empires’ and the ‘Young Nations’ are being redrawn into pro and anti-Russia coalitions, with the US placing itself as the ‘neutral but determining umpire’. The extent to which the US is able to choreograph temporary peace in the region of Rus, shall determine the future course of happenings around 2027. ‘Greater the US success, more shall be the disruption in the global pro-China alignments.’

However, this is the Asian Century, so it shall be the happenings in the Levant, South Asia, and Southeast Asia that shall be more determining for the events ahead.

In the Levant, the US has already scripted geopolitical realignments through a marriage of convenience between Saudi Arabia big money and Pakistan military muscle. This effectively marginalises Turkey’s push to position itself as the new pole in the Arab-Islamic world. With Iran also sidelined, it re-establishes the dominance of Israel in the Levant.

In South Asia, the US strategy of seeding ‘chaos’ has borne the desired fruit. The vital alternative energy corridors of China, the CPEC through Pakistan and the CMEC through Myanmar, are aflame; the Gwadar port along the Makran coast in Pakistan, and the Myanmar port of Kyaukphyu in the Bay of Bengal, are virtually under siege. The US covert backing to forceful change of governments in Bangladesh and Nepal in India’s neighbourhood, coupled with trade sanctions on India, has for the time distracted the latter from active participation in BRICS plan to marginalise the US Dollar.

However, India has refused to buckle under pressure and, in a pushback, has ingeniously signalled its primacy to maintain ‘strategic autonomy’ by providing options to Russia to establish its presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) with a quid pro quo option of Russian logistics support for assisting Indian presence/interests in the Central Asia region.

As the emerging fourth geopolitical pole, India is now engaged in reshaping its own geopolitical alignments, by going beyond the IOR to Indian & Pacific Oceans Region (I&POR). In West Asia, India is evolving a favourable security framework to safeguard its interests and establish inroads in Africa, anchored on Israel, UAE, Mauritius, and Afghanistan. In Southeast Asia, India is quietly but surely expanding its reach into the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean by strongly engaging with Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam; thereby signalling its intent, and showcasing its reach to counter China not only along the land frontier but also in the maritime strategic domain, right upto the eastern coast of the latter.

In Southeast Asia, the US signals of dropping its confrontational approach towards China, and showing greater sensitivity to the core interests of the latter, is a mere façade to gain time to tighten its grip in China’s near abroad by arming Taiwan with strategic weaponry, tacitly backing increasing belligerence of Japan towards China, and inducing the reluctant ASEAN countries into its strategic embrace. China’s intransigence towards its land and maritime neighbours will be leveraged by the US to constrict geopolitical manoeuvre space of China.

POTUS Trump, with all his human weaknesses, is the most unlikely choice to avert the impending geopolitical catastrophe. However, with his own mercurial approach to ‘negotiation through chaos’, Trump is performing his act of promoting peace through global disruptions reasonably well, even if not admirably. Despite massive domestic and global opprobrium being heaped on him, he has ‘held his nerve’. His success in shaping new geopolitical realities that align a transformational relationship with Russia, thereby, coming very close to weaning it away from China, validates this presumption.

The fallout between POTUS Trump and his strongest ally ‘disruptor at large’ Elon Musk was unanticipated, but has had some positive fallout. It has temporarily stalled his alarming vision of developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) to the next stage of Self Evolving Artificial Intelligence (SEAI). Humanity is not yet ready for SEAI.

India’s internal security environment shall continue to be in the ‘red zone’ during the year. The upcoming state elections in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala; the volatile subject of Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls; ethnic, religious, linguistic, and political divide; make for a highly combustible environment, that also provides ready space for covert intervention by external forces inimical to its stability. India’s road, rail, and ports infrastructure are projected targets for disruption, necessitating major upgrade of their security protocols. India would also do well to gear up its seismic activity related disaster management resources. Strongest repercussions are likely to arise in the Northeast.

Wishing you a safe ride through the ‘bhu:’ upheavals of the coming year with the hope of a less devastating 2027!!!

Kal ke saath ki kritagyata, Kal ki shubhkamnayein!

Best wishes

#reflections2025 #bestwishes2026