TACKLING THE CHINESE CONUNDRUM BY INDIA: PART II

General

In mid-May 2020, Chinese Army launched simultaneous incursions in Galwan River Valley, Hot Springs and Northern bank of Pangong Tso in Laddakh.

After protracted military level talks to resolve the issue, China initially agreed to pull back its forces, then procrastinated, and finally withdrew partially in Galwan River Valley. It refused to pull back its troops from Northern bank of Pangong Tso.

China also amassed its infantry and mechanised forces in Depsang Plains opposite Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO), at Pangong Tso and Spanggur Gap opposite Chushul and in general area of Chumar.

DBO and Chushul hold geostrategic importance for India.

Spanggur Gap and Rechin La, to its East, provide easy approach to Chinese mechanised forces and infantry to threaten Chushul and to turn the flanks of Indian forward deployments in the region. Magar Hill, Gorkha Hill and Gurung Hill dominate the Spanggur Gap and also provide observation over Moldo base of Chinese Army as also their strategic road communication network in depth.

Black Top, Helmet and adjoining heights on the South bank of Pangong Tso are of tactical importance. These heights provide ground observation of Sirijap base of China and general area Fingers 4 to 8 lying on North bank of Pangong Tso and Chinese troop concentration in their depth areas. They also dominate Chushul plains.

ANALYSIS OF PRE-EMPTIVE OPERATIONS BY INDIA TO NEUTRALISE CHINESE THREAT IN GENERAL AREA PANGONG TSO AND SPANGGUR GAP OF LADDAKH: END AUGUST 2020

Backdrop

Increased infantry and mechanised forces concentrations of the Chinese Army were detected in forward areas of South bank of Pangong Tso and the vital Spanggur Gap, in mid-August 2020. Based on technical intelligence inputs, an imminent threat was assessed to Chushul airfield and forward deployments of Indian forces in the region.

On night 29/30 August 2020 the Indian Army launched a pre-emptive three pronged operation along the North and South banks of Pangong Tso and heights dominating approaches to Spanggur Gap and Rechin La.

The operation was spearheaded by 7 VIKAS, a unit of Special Frontier Force (SFF), closely supported by other infantry and mechanised forces.

Along the North bank of Pangong Tso, the Indian Army secured ridgelines facing Finger 4, recently occupied by the Chinese Army in violation of standing border management agreements between the two countries.

On the South bank of Pangong Tso the Indian Army secured Black Top, Helmet and adjoining heights of tactical importance.

In a third prong the Indian Army, also secured Magar Hill and Gurung Hill which dominate the Spanggur Gap, and tactical heights dominating Rechin La.

In an equally significant but opaque incident, within six days, fabricated report emerged of Taiwan air defence forces having downed an advanced Chinese fighter aircraft intruding into Taiwan airspace. The report was denied by both Taiwan and China. But what is significant here is that it highlights the wheels within wheels in tackling China, and the commencement of geostrategic pushback on a global scale, through the medium of a 3D WAR – Deniable Disruptive Destruction.

Uniqueness of These Operations

For the first time India has orchestrated its own incremental military operations, mirroring Chinese policy. India succeeded to stymie China.

With the commanding heights under own control, India will be able to reactivate the dormant Chushul airfield, further enhancing its combat potential.

The publicised employment of Special Frontier Force (SFF) troops to launch offensive actions against Chinese Army proclaims tectonic shift in intent of India to swing the focus of the conflict horizon, in the international fora, from India-China confrontation to Chinese occupation of Tibet.

The synchronous US led enhanced naval activities in South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS) maritime region, has forced China into a two front confrontation.

Deductions

These operations herald the emergence of South Block, New Delhi from sixty years of psychological dominance of China, and India finally laying to rest the ghost of the 1962 debacle.

But even more important outcome is the emergence of national leadership which is comfortable with a strong military and proactively dynamic in geopolitical affairs.

China has been shocked into military inaction as its military vulnerabilities lie exposed. The focus will now shift from ‘border management’ to ‘border defence’.

The SFF rank and file generally reflect dual loyalties. Loyalty to India, their foster country, and to The Dalai Lama. The Dalai Lama stood for peaceful resolution of forceful occupation of Tibet by China. This played a major role in hesitation on the part of India to employ the SFF in open conflict against China. The proclaimed offensive employment of SFF against China for the first time, portends the handing over of reins by The Dalai Lama to the next generation Tibetan-in-Exile leadership who are comfortable with use of force to free Tibet from Chinese occupation.

Geostrategically China is suddenly at its weakest point in history, forced to confront the US led alliance assembled in SCS and ECS maritime region to the East, while a resurgent India holds China in a deadly embrace to the South West. China has fallen into a geostrategic trap of its own making.

China’s propaganda induced myth of being a world power capable of challenging US dominance lies exposed. The Chinese leadership is finally the victim of the success of its own propaganda leading them to strategic overreach.

It will give credence and fillip to action to formalise the Quad Alliance.

FUTURE GEOSTRATEGIC COURSE FOR INDIA

The focus will now shift from ‘border management’ to ‘border defence’, a prolonged and costly option for both countries. The mutual distrust of intentions is unlikely to bring a quick resolution to the conflagration.

China has violated all past agreements on conflict management along the LAC. It has also consistently refused to exchange maps. Hence India is well within its rights to abrogate all erstwhile border/LAC agreements between the two countries. The LAC will be as per physical occupation on the ground.

India therefore needs to follow through by shifting the focus of talks between the two countries from “defining of LAC” to “defining the borders”.

India also needs to stress upon China to desist from undertaking any activity in POJK and withdraw from Shaksgam valley illegally ceded by Pakistan to China. China’s refusal to accede should be taken as interference by China in India’s internal affairs. This will clear the way for India to openly come out in support of a free Tibet.

The follow through on formalising of the Quad Alliance shall be fast paced.