VELAPANTI DIARIES – 5

SAUDI ARABIA – PAKISTAN DEFENCE PACT

“The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact is a marriage of convenience between two regimes on shaky moorings, and dependent on external support to secure their continuance in power in their respective countries.” – Col RS Sidhu

Backdrop

Pakistan has a deep rooted military relationship with Saudi Arabia since the 1960’s, whereby, it has been providing training facilities to all the three armed services of the Saudi armed forces, as also substantial military presence in the country.

In accordance with a military protocol dated 14 December 1982, signed between the two countries, Pakistan has stationed it’s military personnel, which at peak strength amounted to an Infantry Division and an armoured brigade, within Saudi Arabia for meeting it’s internal and external security contingencies.

The advanced US military equipment purchased by Saudi Arabia has generally been operated by sizeable number of Pakistan military personnel on deputation with Saudi military.

Saudi Arabia, on its part, has assisted Pakistan war effort against India, by providing major US military equipment replacements during 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pak conflicts.

Even diplomatically, Saudi Arabia has enabled Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) support to Pakistan in UN and other international fora.

Since 2017, former Pakistan COAS Gen Raheel Sharief has been heading the Saudi Arabia led 9 Sunni Arab Countries military alliance for conducting operations against the dominant Houthi rebel group in South Yemen.

Contest for the Islamic Ummah Leadership

The recently concluded Saudi Arabia-Pakistan defence pact has to be viewed through the prism of contest for leadership space of the Islamic Ummah.

Hitherto, the Saudi Arabia monarchy was the unquestioned leader of the Sunni Muslim Ummah, by virtue of its grip over the OIC.

However, the adoption of fundamentalist Islamic nationalist ideology by the ruling regime of Turkey and its contest for leadership of the Sunni Muslim Ummah, has pitted it against Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan, sidelined by Saudi Arabia under US pressure, and Malaysia threw their weight behind Turkey.

Iran, inimical to Pakistan, is on the other hand the unquestioned leader of the Shia Muslim Ummah. The two major divisions within the Islamic Ummah are highly antagonistic towards each other.

To ensure their continued dominance of the OIC, Saudi Arabia has achieved a rapprochement with Pakistan through this military pact.

Geopolitical Realities

Saudi Arabia military is equipped with US origin military equipment. However, its citizens do not have the requisite numbers and aptitude to operate the advanced equipment procured from the US. Trained Pakistan military manpower is thus critical to the security of Saudi Arabia monarchy.

Pakistan, on the other hand, is economically a failed state, with its very survival dependent on foreign economic assistance.

US, unwilling itself to sustain Pakistan economically, has facilitated a marriage of convenience between its two close allies in the volatile and changing West Asia geopolitical scenario, by combining the military muscle of Pakistan with the financial strength of Saudi Arabia.

Known US reluctance to deploy boots on the ground in West Asia, makes Pakistan military involvement in West Asia an ideal foil to secure US geopolitical interests in the region.

This reduces Pakistan dependency on China for its economic survival, while ensuring Saudi Arabia doesn’t fall to any gambit orchestrated by the Russia-China combine.

Impact on India

The Saudi-Pak military alliance has no immediate major military or economic impact on India. There are multifarious reasons for this.

Firstly, there has always been a close military relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. To that extent, there’s no appreciable change in the ground realities.

Secondly, both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia continue to be under the influence of US, the country of choice for the ruling elite of the two countries as a safe haven in a worst case scenario of their grip on the reins of government being seized by inimical forces.

Thirdly, Saudi military and diplomatic support to Pakistan in future conflict with India is unlikely to have any material impact on the military outcome, as the gap in the combat potential between India and Pakistan is heavily weighted in favour of the former.

Fourthly, any likely existential threat to Saudi Arabia shall primarily emerge from Turkey and Iran. Here, Pakistan military involvement in support of Saudi Arabia will be highly unpredictable owing to geopolitical considerations. It shall be subordinate to the power play suitable to the US/China.

Fifthly, there’s a complex economic inter linkage between India and Saudi Arabia in the energy and services sectors. This shall be a major inhibiting factor in Saudi Arabia undertaking any actions inimical to India’s economic interests, owing to concomitant adverse fall out on its own economy.

Lastly, the foremost threat to Saudi monarchy is from an internal Islamic fundamentalist threat. Pakistan military’s known exposure to fundamentalist philosophy, shall ensure that Saudi monarchy doesn’t place all its eggs in the Pakistan military security basket.

The aspect of Pakistan nuclear umbrella for Saudi Arabia holds no relevance. The threat of Pakistan nuclear deterrent has been completely negated post India’s ‘Operation Sindoor’, wherein Pakistan nuclear sites were freely targeted by Indian military. More so, as the quality of Pakistan nuclear assets, and its control over its own nuclear arsenal is now highly questionable. Add to it the Israel factor; even a hint of such complicity would invite assured Israeli intervention at a time of its choosing.

Nevertheless, this military alliance needs close monitoring in the future.

There are two other aspects to this Saudi-Pak military alliance, which should interest the cognizant.

With this India earns the dubious distinction of being encircled by two concentric circles by forces antagonistic to each other; the Chinese ’String of Pearls’, and the US ‘Circle of Fundamentalist Fire’.

The second is, that this development, ipso facto, also heralds the arrival of India on the global geopolitical stage; that two of the most powerful countries of the world recognise the inevitable rise of India as an independent geopolitical pole, that needs to be constricted.

But the most interesting aspect of India’s attempted encirclement is, that its being pushed through unleashing of fundamentalist forces in India’s near abroad; the very forces that both the US and China are fighting in their own backyards.

Geopolitics does make for strange bedfellows!!!