OPERATION ‘SINDOOR’/OPERATION ‘BUNYAN UL MARSOOS’

A DIALECTIC INQUIRY (Abridged)

PART 2 – FLOW OF EVENTS

 

“In a Chessboard ending it is the Checkmate to the King that distinguishes the victor and the vanquished of the Game, and not the end status of the quantum of pieces captured or balance.” – Col RS Sidhu

 

High Resolution Satellite Imagery of Pahalgam Episode

2022 – Obaidullah Syed, a Pakistani-American businessman and owner of Business Systems International Pvt Ltd (BSI) sentenced by a US federal court one year in prison for illegally exporting high-performance computer equipment to the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission.

2023 – US satellite company Maxar Technologies takes on board BSI as a business partner.

June 2024 – High resolution satellite image orders for Pahalgam begin appearing on Maxar Technologies portal.

February 2025 – Maxar technologies receives 12 orders, double its usual volume, for high resolution satellite image for Pahalgam.

April 2025 – Maxar Technologies receives single order for high resolution satellite image for Pahalgam on 12^th April, followed by two additional requests on 24^th and 25^th April 2025.

6^th May 2025 – ‘The Print’ raises queries on email with Maxar Technologies during its investigation on the subject.

9^th May 2025 – ‘The Print’ publishes its investigative story on BSI link with Maxar Technology.

10^th May 2025 – Tomi Maxted, Head of Corporate and Product Communication of Maxar Technologies responds by email to ‘The Print’ denying any orders received from BSI for Pahalgam area. BSI is removed from Maxar Technologies website.

10^th April 2025

Pakistan sponsored terrorists assisted by their overground workers (OGW) carry out covert reconnaissance of tourist sites at Pahalgam and other locations.

16^th of April 2025

Gen Asim Munir, the Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Army and the de facto ruler of Pakistan, made a religiously inflammatory address at The First Annual Convention For Overseas Pakistanis at Islamabad, wherein he termed J&K as the jugular vein, and emphasised the irreconcilable differences in the identity of Pakistan and a ‘Hindu’ India.

19^th April 2025

Scheduled visit of Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister (PM) to J&K cancelled at last minute.

22^nd April 2025

At 0830 hrs Narendra Modi, Prime Minister (PM) of India embarks on two day visit to Saudi Arabia.

At 1450 hrs, five terrorists armed with M4 Carbines and AK 47, massacre 28 male tourists at Baisaran meadow of Pahalgam, India. Killings recorded on GoPro video camera. Victims killed after ascertaining their religious identity as ‘Hindus’. Terrorists stated to the wife of a slain victim, “Modi ko bata dena (Tell PM Modi).”

The Resistant Front (TRF), a proxy of Pakistan based terrorist organisation Lashkar e Taiba (LeT) claims responsibility for the massacre.

23^rd April 2025

Indian PM cuts short visit to Saudi Arabia and chairs meeting of Cabinet Committee of Security (CCS).

India announces slew of punitive measures against Pakistan, Indus Water Treaty (IWT) to be held in abeyance, halts all movement through Integrated Check post at Attari-Wagah land border crossing, cancels all Visas for Pakistan nationals cancelled and orders them to leave India within 48 hrs, Pakistan High Commission staff reduced from 55 to 30 alongside abrogation of posts of Pakistan Defence/Military Advisors (DA/MA) and ordered to leave India within one week.

India begins forward deployment of aircraft carrier INS Vikrant led Carrier Battle Group (CBG) in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Pakistan.  

24^th April 2025

Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan PM chairs National Security Council (NSC) meet. Pakistan declares any action by India to stop river waters guaranteed by IWT will be deemed as an ‘act of war’, holds in abeyance all bilateral agreements with India, suspends all bilateral trade with India including through third countries, closes Pakistan airspace to Indian owned/operated airlines, in addition to instituting reciprocal punitive measures announced earlier by India.

Indian security agencies announce identity of two Pakistan terrorists involved in the Pahalgam massacre as Abhu Talha (Ali Bhai), and Suleiman Shah (Yunus). Pakistan citizens, the LeT chief Hafeez Saeed, his deputy Saifullah Kasuri, and Hashim Moosa an operational commander and veteran of Pakistan’s Special Services Group, identified as the masterminds of the attack, by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) of India.

Forensic investigators trace digital signatures of a Chinese Huawei satellite phone, and highly encrypted Chinese telecom equipment, the 'Ultra Set,' linking the massacre to Pakistan Inter Service Intelligence (ISI)/LeT safe houses in Muzaffarabad and Karachi, in Pakistan. These ultra secured communication and navigation devices are linked to the Chinese BeiDou satellite system, and cannot be deciphered regionally.

During a public meeting in Bihar province Indian PM publicly resolves, “I say to the whole world that India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers involved in the massacre, and pursue them to the ends of the earth.”

25^th April 2025

Indian Government holds All Party Meet and secures full support for a decisive response.

26^th April 2025

India stops all postal services with and from Pakistan, and entry of Pakistan flagged ships to Indian ports, alongside additional punitive measures as announced earlier by Pakistan.

TRF retracts its claim of responsibility for the Pahalgam massacre.

Muhammad Hanif Abbasi, Railway Minister of Pakistan raised the spectre of nuclear war, during a press conference held at his residence in Rawalpindi. 

29^th April 2025

Indian PM holds closed door security meeting with the Raksha Mantri (RM), National Security Advisor (NSA), Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), and Chiefs of Staff of the Army (COAS), Navy (CNS), and Airforce (CAS). Announces complete operational freedom to the three armed services chiefs to select the mode, timing, and targets to plan and execute a military response.

30^th April to 4^th May 2025

Indian PM holds four back to back meetings on 30^th of April of CCS, Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA), Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), and a full Cabinet meeting, and affirms “national resolve to deal a crushing blow to terrorism”.

Indian PM holds individual discussions with the COAS on 30^th April, CNS on 3^rd May, and CAS on 4^th May.

Muhammad Khalid Jamali, Pakistan Ambassador to Russia states, “Pakistan will use full spectrum of power, both conventional and nuclear”, in response to any Indian military action or interference with its water supply.

5^th May 2025

Indian Government orders holding of large scale civil defence exercises for 7^th May 2025.

UN Security Council holds inconclusive closed door consultations, at the request of Pakistan, on increasing military tensions between India and Pakistan as a fallout to the 22^nd April 2025 terrorist massacre at Pahalgam, India.

7^th May 2025

India carries out 14 air and ground launched precision strikes on nine identified terrorist infrastructure sites in Pakistan and POJK, from 0105 hrs to 0130 hrs, under codename ‘Operation Sindoor’.

Pakistan launches air interdiction against IAF air assets, and against forward Indian military bases.

Heavy artillery fire exchange between India and Pakistan across the LC, causing extensive damage to civil infrastructure and casualties to military and civilian personnel.

Pakistan PM convenes NSC meet to authorise riposte by Pakistan military.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif in interview with Pakistani TV channel Geo News threatens India of a “clear and present” danger of nuclear war.

8^th May 2025

Pakistan launches drone and missile attacks on Indian military and civil targets.

India employs Kamikaze drones, and loitering munitions to strike Pakistan AD infrastructure.

9^th May 2025

Pakistan deploys 50 drones to target 26 locations within India from Baramulla in the north to Bhuj in the south.

Indian PM meets ex Chiefs of Staffs and other veterans, prior to review of the military situation with the RM, NSA, CDS, COAS, CNS, and CAS.

10^th May 2025

Pakistan launches missile and drone strikes on 25 Indian military sites.

India retaliates with precision munition strikes on eight strategic targets in Pakistan, including Nur Khan airbase at Chaklala in close vicinity to Pakistan military General Headquarters (GHQ) at Rawalpindi.

Pakistan Director General Military Operations (DGMO) approaches his Indian counterpart over hotline to request ceasefire.

India Pakistan agree to stop fire with effect from 1700 hrs.

12^th May 2025

Joint meeting of the two adversary DGMOs over hotline, resolves to extend stop firing till 18^th of May.

India announces stop firing is conditional; any act of terror emanating from Pakistan shall invite assured retaliation; Operation ‘Sindoor’ is the ‘new normal’; IWT shall continue to be held in abeyance; talks with Pakistan only on return of POJK to India.

"Based on information available to the IAEA, there has been no radiation leak or release from any nuclear facility in Pakistan," an IAEA spokesperson told PTI.

17^th May 2025

Pakistan PM during his speech at an event celebrating ‘Youm-e-Tashakur’ (Thanksgiving) at Islamabad stated “On the night of May 9 and May 10, at around 2.30 AM the Army Chief called me from a secure line call that India through its ballistic missiles had attacked us. One missile hit the Nur Khan airbase and some others have hit other areas.”

90 hrs of Cross Border/LC Military Operations

15 days post the Pahalgam massacre, India opened the hostilities in early hours of 7^th May by launching its much anticipated cross LC/IB attack on targets of interest within Pakistan.  

India employed its air assets, Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs), Ballistic Missiles, Kamikaze and Surveillance Drones, to launch 14 attacks in near simultaneous time frame, just past midnight, on nine terrorist infrastructure targets in POJK, Sindh, and Punjab provinces of Pakistan, within 100 kms in depth from the LC/IB.

No Pakistan military infrastructure was targeted, and IAF manned air assets did not cross the LC/IB.

In retaliation, Pakistan launched its long range air to air missiles (AAMs) from within its airspace to interdict attacking IAF aircrafts across the LC/IB in Indian airspace, causing some attrition. Pakistan also retaliated with limited drone attacks on forward Indian military bases and civilian population centres across a broad arc.

The following night, on 8^th of May, PAF launched simultaneous multiple drone swarms against forward military air bases in India to overwhelm and exhaust latter’s integrated air defence grid by employing low cost Turkish and Chinese origin drones, alongside Kamikaze attack drones.

Overall India deployed more than 1,000 Air Defence (AD) upgraded vintage gun systems, and 750 short and medium range surface to air missile (SAM) systems, alongside high technology Russian, Israeli, and indigenous AD weapons platform networked into the IAF Integrated Air Command & Control System (IACCS), and an integrated air defence grid to deny Indian airspace to intruding PAF Drones and ballistic missiles. Six nodes of Akashteer, the indigenous Air Defence Control & Reporting System (ADC&RS) were also deployed and integrated into the wider AD grid.

The strongest evidence of the effectiveness of the ‘legacy’ weapons of the Indian Army was the historic, first recorded shooting down of an enemy aerial vehicle, a Turkish origin Bayraktar drone armed with 20 kgs explosive, during combat operations from an Infantry Combat Vehicle of the mechanised infantry, in the plains of Punjab.

The PAF followed through with simultaneous multiple drone swarm attacks on Indian forward military bases and population centres across a wide arc. Pakistan Army continued to employ heavy artillery weapons to inflict damage across the LC. 

The initial reverses compelled the IAF to readjust its offensive strategy. After a quick review of the vulnerabilities highlighted in the first day military operations, the IAF now employed UAVs and loitering munitions to punch holes in the Pakistan Air Defense Ground Environment (ADGE). This resulted in heavy destruction of high technology AD assets of Pakistan, opening the way for subsequent IAF offensive against Pakistan strategic airfields.    

India launched multiple retaliatory SSM, precision guided munitions, and drone strikes on eleven Pakistan strategic airfields, including Nur Khan airbase in the early hours of 9^th and 10^th of May. Land based Brahmos cruise missiles were also employed in close conjunction with air assets, overwhelming the Pakistan ADGE, causing Pakistan to seek a face saving ceasefire.

Throughout the conflict, no manned aircrafts of the two adversaries crossed the IB/LC.

All through the active phase of Operation ‘Sindoor’, 36 Indian naval warships and the INS Vikrant CBG were deployed in the maritime waters close to the coast of Pakistan as a threat in being. The Pakistan Navy adopted a defensive posture in the vicinity of their operating port, due to lack of adequate long range air cover. 

Both sides extensively used social media legions to launch Information Warfare (IW) campaigns to spread misinformation, inflating casualties of the adversary, and masking own losses. Indian civil and military dignitaries and officials were circumspect in not personally sharing unsubstantiated/false information during official briefings and in public statements to media. However, Pakistan dignitaries and officials held no such inhibitions and variously shared fabricated information, severely denting their credibility.

Pakistan Foreign Minister (FM) accused India of conducting false flag attacks on its own city of Amritsar, which proved to be false.

The PAF during their official briefing, falsely claimed heavy destruction to Indian Adampur airfield along with an S-400 platform. On 13^th of May under full media glare, the Indian PM landed at the Adampur airbase for a ‘photo op’ with Indian soldiers where the S-400 platform was placed as the backdrop, exposing the Pakistan claims.   

Pakistan engaged in a deliberate ploy of nuclear sabre rattling to deter India, by conducting tests of nuclear capable surface to surface missiles (SSMs), and veiled nuclear threats by their Ministers and diplomats. Pakistan’s Defence Minister, the Railway Minister, and their Ambassador to Moscow, were some of the many dignitaries who engaged in subtle and implied nuclear threats. Pakistan kept the nuclear pot boiling by conducting test of its 450km-range, nuclear-capable, Abdali SSM on 3^rd of May, and the Fatah SSM of 120 km range on 5^th of May.

Both IAF and PAF suffered casualties. Most of the casualties to IAF air assets were in the air. For the PAF, it suffered heavy casualties to its air assets, AD radar and communication infrastructure on the ground. Both sides have maintained official silence on damage/destruction to own major weapons platforms and military infrastructure. Pakistan has officially acknowledged 11 killed and 78 wounded military casualties to its own forces, and civilians 40 killed and 121 wounded. India has acknowledged five of its soldiers killed in action.

The Military Outcome

When analysing the combat outcome of a punitive military confrontation, the number of major weapons platform and manpower casualties seldom reflect the true picture. While the quantum of such casualties does matter, the true upshot is more dependent on how it alters the future dynamics of the adversarial relationship. This itself is dependent on how the leadership and the influential segment of their society view it.

This military confrontation, though limited, shall deliver far reaching repercussions from the geopolitical standpoint, and the internal political dynamics of the two countries. Hence, the winding down of the respective military operations by India and Pakistan shall not be a quiet affair. It shall, most likely, transfer the rivalry to the field of perception management as to the real victor.  

However, there is unlikely to be any consensus, not even within the two countries, as it shall be difficult to approach the discourse dispassionately. As is the ‘new normal’ in these contentious times, it is likely to be viewed through the prism of political or geopolitical bloc loyalty. Even the stance adopted by the otherwise well informed and qualified ‘neutral’ air warfare experts, shall be subjective to the geopolitical interests of their respective country.

The IAF, despite suffering initial attrition at the hands of the PAF during the opening phase of the 90 hrs of active military operations, continued to press on relentlessly with deep strikes within Pakistan despite fierce resistance from the PAF and Pakistan ADGE. But the IAF was still able to carry the battle into the heart of Pakistan, as reflected by the effective and repeated strikes on all the major strategic airbases of the adversary.

The reach of Pakistan on the other hand was restricted to the forward air and military bases of India. Their farthest strike, that too by a ballistic missile, was upto Sirsa, where it was destroyed. There are conflicting claims by the two adversaries as to the quantum of losses suffered by the opposition. Seasoned ‘neutral’ air warfare experts too are divided on the real losses. But that is immaterial to the outcome.

The elephant hiding in the room, which very few reputed ‘neutral’ air warfare expert are willing to address, is the destruction caused to the two most sensitive and strategic airbases of PAF, the Nur Khan base at Chaklala, and the Sargodha airbase. They are both critical to Pakistan nuclear command chain, apart from housing their nuclear delivery assets, and are the most heavily guarded. Nur Khan is within hand shaking distance from the Pakistan Nuclear Command Authority, and uncomfortably close to their GHQ. They are the very core of the Pakistan defensive and offensive combat potential.

Severe destruction to these bases, as revealed by the before and after high resolution satellite imagery, complemented by electronic and human intelligence sources, and the public disclosure by the Pakistan PM is the most revealing. At one stroke it highlights the reach of the IAF, and the failure of the PAF. All other casualties and destruction of rival assets pale into insignificance.

This is the true turning point of the short but sharp conflict, necessitating an alarmed US and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to jump into the fray, and a chastised Pakistan military to call India for ceasefire.

The mute question is, when neither India, nor Pakistan claim a nuclear strike or radiation leak, where is the rationale for the IAEA to survey and clarify the Nur Khan site being free from nuclear radiation leak? Alternately, should this be viewed as a testament to the success of the Information War (IW) campaign orchestrated by powerful interests to bury the issue?!!