TACKLING THE CHINESE CONUNDRUM BY INDIA - PART I

TACKLING THE CHINESE CONUNDRUM BY INDIA - PART I

 

General

Geostrategic importance of Tibetan Plateau makes China highly sensitive to any threats in this region. Importance of Tibet to India is equally well established.

The Tibetan Plateau is the source of three of the largest rivers of China, the Yellow River in the North, Yangtze River in the Centre, and Pearl River in South China.  

Rivers Indus, Sutlej, and Brahmaputra, three of the largest rivers of India, too originate from the Tibetan Plateau. Indus River is also the major source of water for Pakistan.

Three of the largest rivers of Myanmar and SE Asia, the Irrawaddy, Salween, and Mekong Rivers, also have their origins in Tibetan Plateau. 

Tibetan plateau is, thus, critical to water security of China, India, Pakistan and SE Asia.

Chinese maritime trade routes through South China Sea to Indian Ocean region are extremely vulnerable to interdiction. Tibetan Mountain Ranges of Great Himalayas, Karakoram, Kunlun, and Tien Shan restrict Chinese land access to Indian Ocean.

Hence, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from Tibet Plateau to Gwadar port on Makran coastline is vital to Chinese interests as alternative access to the Indian Ocean maritime trade routes.

Tibetan Plateau also acts as buffer from the South West to the core of Han China.

 

ANALYSIS OF RECENT CHINESE INCURSIONS ON INDIA TIBET BORDER

 

Backdrop

-        Mid 2017, two and half months standoff between India and China at Doklam.

-        Mid 2019, special status to J&K under Article 370 and Article 35A ceases to be operative by India, followed by declaration of Indian resolve to regain Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (POJK) and Chinese occupied Aksai Chin and Shaksgam Valley regions of J&K.

-        Immediately followed by China calling for a closed door meeting of UN Security Council on the subject.

-        Beginning 2020, Covid 19 pandemic outbreak from China.

-        May 2020, simultaneous Chinese incursions in Galwan River Valley, Hot Springs and Pangong Tso Lake in Laddakh, and at Naku La in North Eastern Sikkim.

-        Ongoing military level talks to resolve issue.

Uniqueness of Current Incursions

-        Incursions were simultaneous and spread over a vast frontage from Laddakh in North to Sikkim in North East.

-        Initial incursions were backed up by overt build-up of additional frontline formations in depth areas.

-        Effective deception measures were employed to achieve surprise, despite formation level build up.

-        Simultaneously media was employed to showcase tactical exercises with troops and advanced equipment in high altitude areas.

-        Incursion extensively covered in Chinese state and social media.

-        All combined indicate orchestration of military operation at highest levels within China.

-        Geostrategically the situation is inimical to Chinese interests to launch major incursions at a juncture when it is already under extreme international pressure due to blame for Covid 19 pandemic, investigation of role of World Health Organisation in assisting cover up by China, ongoing US Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) in South China Sea maritime region, formulation of alliance of like-minded influential international countries against China, and increased scrutiny of its human rights violations in Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong.

-        There is rising internal discontent against Chinese President Xi Jinping because of Covid 19 pandemic induced economic slowdown. Any misstep in the outcome of the operation could have disastrous consequences for the ruling Chinese hierarchy.

Deductions

China was surprised by the unexpectedly firm Indian resolve and military response at Doklam in 2017. China was generally perceived to have been forced on the back foot under Indian pressure, leading to tremendous loss of face domestically and internationally.

China is also concerned with Indian logistics infrastructure development in regions bordering Tibet Autonomous region (TAR).

The surprise, speed and follow up operations involving full spectrum of Chinese state agencies, indicates protracted planning and rehearsals over extended period of time. Having gained the military advantage of securing strategic ground, only to accede partially or fully to inevitable Indian demand to maintain erstwhile status quo positions, is not convincing. Especially so in the aftermath of the Doklam incident.

Launching of this operation at a geostrategically inopportune time, indicates the importance Chinese hierarchy attaches to its outcome in furthering their national interests.   

Therefore the main aim of the Chinese operation appears to be to:-

-        Assess the efficacy and vulnerabilities of the logistics infrastructure being developed by India.

-        Assess the Indian Order of Battle and likely operational plans from the deployments affected by India.

-        Reassess their own strategic plans for conduct of future operations.

-        Assess the extent of likely intervention from the nascent and yet informal geostrategic Quad Alliance of US – Japan – Australia – India, for formulating its own geostrategic response.

-        Showcase the commitment of China to safeguarding its national interests to the international community at large and its near neighbourhood specifically.

-        Reassure its domestic audience with respect to continued domination of the world stage by China.

REVIEW OF OPTIONS FOR INDIA

 

There is consensus in the strategic community that the only language which China understands is force.

India’s diffident and reactive approach to Chinese designs is highly reassuring to the latter. It enables China to engage India at ground and time of its own choosing.

In today’s age of social media activism it is no longer feasible to suppress information on border incursions, and shall be counterproductive in the long run.

With its logistics infrastructure and force deployments near complete, India needs to adopt a proactive stance to impose caution on future Chinese actions. India needs to orchestrate its own incremental military operations, mirroring Chinese policy, to keep it unbalanced.

Medium range active electronics surveillance needs to be decentralised down to Brigade and Unit level, to avoid future tactical surprises.

The process of setting up the Theatre Commands needs to be speeded up by India. The current command and control organisation is too tedious and time consuming for swift operational riposte.

 

Military Options

Localised Skirmish by employing Special Forces and force multipliers.

Proactive deployment of own Combat Groups/Integrated Battle Groups.

Target Chinese economic assets in POJK. The existing ground situation and rules of open engagement across the LC in POJK legitimises such engagements.

Maritime blockade at choke points, as a last resort.

Geostrategic Options

Encourage legitimacy to Taiwan in international fora, in conjunction with other major allied countries.

Work towards penalising China for Human Rights abuse and genocide in Tibet, Xinjiang and Hong Kong by applying international economic sanctions, in conjunction with countries with similar interests.

Enhance indirect support to Tibet Government in exile in voicing their concerns.

Postscript

Chinese government is equally adept at sending and reading geopolitical signalling. Once India signals its intent through actions, China will receive the message. Strong Political Leadership, backed by actions of a strong military, are a pre-requisite, for adopting this course of action.