REPUBLIC OF INDIA INTERNAL SECURITY PORTENDS 2021-25

 

SPRINGING THE ‘THUCYDIDES TRAP’

 “In contentious times, analysing deeds and recognising patterns in key events is a surer way for an observer to timely deduce the likely turn of events.” – Col RS Sidhu

 

‘Thucydides Trap’

On 14^th of May 2026, the paramount leader of China, Xi Jinping during his Summit with POTUS Donald Trump in Beijing, used an interesting catchphrase by calling upon the two countries to transcend the ‘Thucydides Trap’.

The axiom ‘Thucydides Trap’, refers to the inevitability of war when the rise of a challenger threatens the supremacy of an established power. This expression is named after Greek historian Thucydides, who first propounded this principle in the context of geopolitical challenge by Athens to the supremacy of Sparta, resulting in the long drawn out Peloponnesian Wars in ancient Greece during the 5^th century BCE.

By using this phrase in context of the adversarial relationship between China and the US, Xi Jinping has firmly affirmed that China considers itself to be an equal to the US, the dominant global superpower, and also implied that the latter viewing the rise of China as a threat, exhibits US insecurity.

The Rise of China

China has been quietly implementing assiduously crafted long term roadmap to propel it to unchallengeable global supremacy by the middle of the 21^st century. This consistent effort is well documented and reflects in its Belts and Roads Initiative (BRI) that aims at restructuring and dominating the world of finance, trade, industry, and geopolitics by developing and employing new age disruptive technologies of Quantum Computing, Blockchain, Artificial Intelligence (AI), 5G, Internet of Things (IoT), Global Positioning Navigation and Timing (PNT), Space based Voice and Data Network, Remote Sensing, and other services. Conceived in 2013, parallel to rise of Xi Jinping as paramount leader of China, it is complemented by transformation of China’s military as a future ready digitised force.

China has been equally diligent in preparing for the inevitable confrontation with the US, by judicious cultivation of countries opposed to US geoeconomic and geopolitical dominance, and actively assisting them in gaining regional ascendancy.

It has also promoted multilateral efforts, in alliance with Russia, to challenge the US led West Bloc in international fora. The grouping of BRICS countries to develop an alternative international trade, financial, and banking infrastructure; and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), an alternative Eurasian economic and security initiative, are two pivotal multilateral efforts in this direction.  

China has also developed a strong network of key allied countries that act as its first line of defence. Russia provides depth and safety to its western border. Nuclear armed North Korea covers its North eastern flank. The ‘Eleven Dash Line’ maritime defense parameter established by China in the South China Sea, provides depth to its exposed eastern coastline. To neutralise India, its biggest threat, located to its south, it has cultivated nuclear armed Pakistan.

China has also diplomatically cultivated Iran, and aided in building up its combat power in energy rich West Asia, to challenge the regional supremacy of US backed Israel. These allied countries, by virtue of their geographical location, strong combat power and, most important, their deep rooted antipathy to the US, are the first formidable outer tier that US must breach to confront China.

However, China’s exposed energy maritime supply routes in the Indo-Pacific continue to be its most susceptible jugular artery. It has attempted to reduce this vulnerability by developing China Pakistan Energy Corridor (CPEC) through Pakistan from the Arabian Sea, and China Myanmar Energy Corridor (CMEC) through Myanmar from the Bay of Bengal.    

US Pivot to the Pacific

By the end of the first decade of the 21^st century, US began displaying overt signs that acknowledged China as a serious challenger to its global supremacy. In 2013, the US under President Barack Obama strategised to address the challenge from China by undertaking a strategic shift in external focus from Europe and West Asia to the Asia-Pacific region, termed as ‘Asia Pivot’. It entailed launching diplomatic, economic, and military initiatives to strengthen US influence and power in the Asia- Pacific. However, the US inability to extricate itself from geopolitical engagements in Europe and West Asia hindered the implementation of this initiative.     

The successive US Presidents continued to reaffirm the Barack Obama administration initiative of ‘Asia Pivot’. The strongest step in this direction was undertaken in 2018, by reorganising its Indo Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) to provide a single point military response to pressure China. The extended jurisdiction of the USINDOPACOM poses a threat in being to Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) of China, on the maritime choke points extending from the Indian Ocean, Straits of Malacca, to the South China Sea, and the Pacific Ocean.

The US also stitched together a trilateral alliance, the AUKUS, with UK and Australia; and another informal alliance of US, India, Japan, and Australia, termed as QUAD.

Setting the ‘Thucydides Trap’

From the above happenings, it should be logical to deduce that the ‘Thucydides Trap’ was set with the reorganisation of the USINDOPACOM in 2018. The use of this phrase by Xi Jinping in May 2026, should be viewed as the first open declaration by China that it looks at US geopolitical efforts to hem China in the Pacific region as a probable cause of war.

Earlier, in 2014 the Russian President Vladimir Putin had in clear cut words warned that further eastward expansion of EU and NATO would result in war. This statement is deemed as the inflexion point, that ultimately led to launch of the ‘Special Military Operation’ by Russia in Ukraine in February 2022. Russian military operation against ostensibly standalone Ukraine, which commenced in February of 2022 and has been on slow burner for last couple of years, is showing ominous probability of a widening war horizon. A weakened NATO is now forced to line up behind Ukraine, as the latter is bereft of US military support courtesy its involvement in the war with Iran.

The link of the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran can be traced to the Iran supported Hamas brutal attack on Israel in October 2023, inviting all-out retaliatory offensive by Israel that has reduced Hamas ruled Gaza to rubble. This was immediately followed by Iran supported Hezbollah launching staggered attacks from Lebanon on Israel forcing a two front war on the latter. Israel initially retaliated with several limited invasions of Lebanon, before launching direct attacks on Iran in June 2025. In February 2026, the US and Israel open alliance commenced large scale attacks on Iran with the avowed aim of destroying Iran nuclear weapons program and effecting a regime change. Iran has been able to withstand the US-Israel attacks with substantial military technological support from China.

The consequential closure of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran, and resultant energy crisis, is impacting the comity of nations across the globe.

There is also deeper dissonance between US and China, on the latter’s avowed aim to ‘reintegrate’ Taiwan into its fold, by force, if necessary; and the unilateral expansion by China of the ‘Eleven Dash Line’ into the South China Sea, contested by the US and its allies as violation of the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) guaranteeing ‘freedom of the seas’. Hence, China views the US ‘Pivot to the Indo-Pacific’, as detrimental to its core national interests.

So, the most concerning finding of the spreading war clouds from Ukraine to West Asia, South Asia, extending to South China Sea, and Taiwan, is the emergence of patterns linking them to a joint Sino-Russia challenge to the US led West Bloc geopolitical supremacy.  

Emerging Patterns On Checkmating US Pivot to the Indo-Pacific…

US withdrawal from Afghanistan completed – August 2021.

AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) Security Pact launched – September 2021.

First QUAD Summit in US – September 2021.

Russia launches Special Military Operation in Ukraine – Feb 2022.

US launches ‘Partners In Blue Pacific’ initiative – June 2022.

Brutal attack by Hamas on Israel inviting retaliation by the latter, immediately followed by Hezbollah opening a second front, from Lebanon, against Israel – October 2023.

POTUS Donald Trump assumes office – January 2025.

Israel invades South Lebanon attacks Hezbollah – October 2024.

Israel launches direct attack on Iran – June 2025.

US-Israel joint direct attacks on Iran Feb 2026.

As the conflict gets prolonged into the fourth month, US is fully enmeshed in the region, indefinitely delaying its ‘Asia Pivot’ move.

A distinct pattern is playing out where US attempts to pivot to Indo-Pacific have been stalled by prolonged conflicts in the regions of Rus, and the Levant. The Levant war effort has also left the US with major deficiencies in stockpiles of critical weapons and precision guided munitions, impacting its combat potential to undertake major operations in the Indo-Pacific theatre in the near term.

Latent Probabilities

The stalemate in the US-Israel war against Iran comes with high costs not only for the three combatant nations but also for the world economy.

The closed energy maritime supply routes is debilitating the economy of Iran, as oil and gas accounts for 40% of Iran’s budget revenues and 50% of its export earnings. Iran’s foreign currency reserves are down to cover three months exports, its industrial and agricultural produce is down by 40% leading to large scale layoffs of workforce and likely food shortages.

China’s external energy dependent and export driven economy is also undergoing extreme stress. The impact is likely to deepen if the current energy blockage in the Gulf extends beyond six months. The economy of the regional Gulf countries have been hit the hardest. National resilience and capacity to absorb the economic shock shall now play a defining role in determining the outcome of this war.

The US has been forced to nearly double its defence spending, and shall take two years to recoup the stockpile of its weapons stockpile. This is also impacting the war in Ukraine, as US material support to Ukraine war effort has waned, leading to Russia gaining an upper hand. POTUS Trump led Republican Party shall have to pay domestic political costs in the year end biannual elections in the country.

Notwithstanding the negatives for the US, the most interesting facet of the conflict is that while its key adversaries are under increasingly acute economic stress, the US energy and armament industries are raking profits. A prolonged pause in the conflict, and not its ending, best serves the US interests, as it stresses the economy of its adversaries and competitors.

However, China still has couple of options to weaken US ‘Asia Pivot’.  

Coup in Saudi Arabia (?)…The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement of September 17, 2025, signed between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, provisions Pakistan military deployment in Saudi Arabia upto the strength of 80,000, and a US $ 10 billion Saudi Arabia financial assistance by Saudi Arabia to the latter. Pakistan has deployed a composite force comprising an Infantry Division supported by armour and artillery component, JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft squadron, two Drone squadrons, HQ 9 Air Defence missile unit, and a naval flotilla in Saudi Arabia. The ‘House of Saud’ has placed their future in the hands of Pakistan military leadership that is heavily reliant on Chinese economic and military support. Even a failed coup attempt would have transformational repercussions on regional alliances…

Orchestrating a conflict through North Korea against South Korea and/or Japan would be a measure of last resort, before the final bugle call for a global catastrophe…

In this whole byzantine geopolitical powerplays, the only factor which clearly stands out is that the Gulf conflict is not coming to an early end, as the ‘Thucydides Trap’ does not differentiate in the prey that gets ensnared, the hunter or the hunted...

For India, with its ‘frenemies’ and principal adversary distracted, this is the right time to initiate strong action to dismantle foreign funded internal destabilising network, and speed up the structural reformation of its armed forces.