Akhand Bharat

REVISITING INDIAN MILITARY THEATRE COMMAND REFORMS

The best way forward for India to unbalance China’s coercive military posture along the northern land border, is to pivot the battlefield centre of gravity to the Indo-Pacific maritime region. – Col RS Sidhu

 

Backdrop

2019 turned out to be a watershed year in India’s future outlook of itself in the geopolitical space. The Budget 2019-20, presented on 05 July 2019, contained a declaratory statement  to make India a US Dollar 5 trillion economy by 2024-25. In immediate aftermath, on 15 August 2019, the Prime Minister announced the government intent to create the appointment of Chief of Defense Staff (CDS).

Thereafter the wheels of the government moved with uncharacteristic alacrity. A committee under National Security Advisor was formed on 23 August 2019, to formulate the role and powers of CDS, with report to be submitted within six weeks.

By 24 December 2019, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), approved the creation of the post of CDS and Department of Military Affairs (DMA). CDS was also to be the Secretary DMA, Permanent Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC), and to act as the Principal Military Adviser to Raksha Mantri on all tri-services matters.

On 30 December 2019, the Cabinet Secretariat implemented the decision by suitably amending the Allocation of Business Rules 1961, vide Government of India (Allocation of Business) Three Hundred Fifty third Amendment Rules, 2019 (5); thus, clearing the way for the first CDS to assume appointment on 01 January 2020.

One of the key task assigned to the CDS was to bring about jointness in the three Services within three years of the first CDS assuming office, in operations, logistics, transport, training, support services, communications, repairs and maintenance, etc.

Six years down the line, the country’s economy is hovering near US Dollar 4 trillion against the target of US Dollar 5 trillion, while there’s no visible progress in the creation of Theatre Commands. The latter continues to be a work in progress well past the laid down deadline.

Review

One of the key contributory factor to this inordinate delay has been the emasculating anomalies inbuilt into the Government Order (GO) instituting the appointment of the CDS.

The existing GO bars both the CDS and the Services chiefs from the chain of command of the upcoming Theatre and Functional Commands. As the Ministry of Defense (MoD) lacks the requisite military competence to supervise the Theatre and Functional Commands, this is the biggest lacunae in successful implementation of reforms to the apex military hierarchy.

Making the CDS as first amongst equals is an adhoc and disjointed solution, as maybe deduced from the delay in instituting reforms in higher military architecture. In a status conscious bureaucracy, rank matters in resolving differing viewpoints and cutting through red tape. Enhanced weightage to the appointment of CDS is, therefore, advisable by upgrading from the present 4 Star to a 5 Star rank. 

The CDS needs to be directly accountable to the Raksha Mantri (RM), hold status equivalent to the National Security Advisor (NSA), and be made statutory advisory member of the CCS.

The post of the Secretary DMA should be separated, with direct reporting to the CDS.

An Act of Parliament should be brought in to rectify the anomalies, and ‘constitutionalisethe post of CDS. It will showcase the determination and will of the Government to implement the reforms, and subtly discourage opposition from vested interests. A GO, on the other hand, signals uncertainty that may embolden those opposing the reforms.

Assessing Necessity of Higher Military Reforms

The raison d’etre of the argument for opposing these reforms is that the existing system has delivered in all operational crisis situations, including the most recent Operation Sindoor; so “why fix something which isn’t broke? 

The answer to the ibid query is simple. A vibrant organisation is one that voluntarily adepts to changing environment, one that evolves with the time rather than being forced to undertake reforms on encountering failure. The ongoing military conflicts in the Rus region of Europe, the Levant in West Asia, Central Asia, and South Asia, are live examples of the heavy cost of military failure to evolve proactively.

Paradigm shifts in the battlefield have taken place from the hitherto fore three dimensional land, sea, and air warfare to five dimensional warfare, with the addition of the new dimensions of space and cyberspace.

New technologies in logistics infrastructure management are shrinking the world, resulting expansion of strategic reach of the armed forces. Introducing lethal swarms of self-propelled, AI capable nano platforms, and robotic soldiers, through synthesis of nanotechnology based robotics, information technology, biotechnology, quantum computing, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) has morphed the battlefield.

Enhanced battlefield transparency through space based surveillance, communications, and AI enabled command & control systems; and reduced response time with increased response reliability of autonomous weapon systems; are revolutionising decision action matrix.

The seamless integration, command & control, and optimum capacity utilisation of such specialised resources will be feasible only through unified functional commands.

With war clouds hovering all across the horizon of South Asia, undertaking the envisaged Indian military Theatre Command reforms must gain new urgency. The unfolding geopolitical environment is the harbinger of Volatile Uncertain Complex Ambiguous (VUCA) times, wherein procrastination is the worst policy. Hence, the time is just ripe for a major political decision, to either scrap the impending Theatre Command reforms, or compel acquiescence from the quarters opposing these reforms.

Vision for Undertaking Military Reforms

Reorganising the higher military architecture by India to meet the demands of enhanced security of its current borders, would always remain a disputed domain due to paucity of resources, lack of political clarity on breaking the current gridlock, and military vulnerabilities during the time of switch over to the new defense architecture. It simply does not impart desired dividends commensurate to the resources and effort needed to execute this transformational project.

The vision for change has to be propelled by the dynamics of reorganising its military into a powerful force that assures strategic autonomy essential to safeguard its national interests in the geopolitical power plays of the realpolitik world. This comes with a caveat, for it can become a reality only after political clarity is achieved on the civilisational aspiration of realising an ‘Akhand Bharat’.

Establishing Theatre Commands is inextricably interlinked to India’s push towards realisation of ‘Akhand Bharat’ which itself is predicated on the four cardinals of access to global markets and natural resources to enable highest percentage of economic growth, expanded out of area military reach to secure its external trade, gain geographic mass to counter its powerful adversaries, and capitalise on its demographic dividend.

The Compounding Factors

Handling the civilisational rivalry with China shall be the most critical for emergence of India as a powerful entity in the comity of nations on the world stage. China pursues its deep rivalry towards India through a seemingly ambivalent strategy of coercive application of force to gain situational advantage followed by easing off the pressure so applied. Thereby, China has successfully hemmed India not only across the 4000 kms long border with COT, but also along India’s 7,500 kms coastline through its ‘string of pearls’ maritime bases in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

To grasp the essence of China’s strategy to neutralise India, we have to understand the basics of the Chinese boardgame Weiqi. To win in this game emphasis is not on destruction of the rival pieces, but adopting a strategy of positional encirclement that first immobilises the adversary and then forces it to cede ground, without engaging in debilitating battle.

The best approach to neutralise this strategy is not through confrontation at the point of pressure but through applying counter pressure at a different exposed point of the adversary. The success of this counter-strategy was distinctly evident during the Galwan 2020 standoff, where Indian military forced China reluctantly to the negotiation table by occupying the unheld strategic heights on the Kailash range.   

China’s key vulnerability is not in their outlying extreme high altitude areas of COT lying in its remote periphery, but in its maritime trade routes in the Indo-Pacific region. India has to be prepared to enforce unacceptable economic and military costs on China in the maritime domain in a future conflict escalation.

India is advantaged to occupy a central geographical location in Asia, a unique land and maritime pivot between Southeast Asia and West Asia, that enables it to dominate the international maritime trade in this vast region with minimum effort. On the land frontier the positional advantage shall always remain with China. But on the high seas it is evidently with India where it can orchestrate a threat in being to China’s vulnerable maritime trade. It is an unpardonable military folly to contest an adversary at ground and time of their choice. It is, therefore, imperative for India to shift the centre of gravity of the rivalry with China to the maritime Indo-Pacific region, as a counter to offset the positional advantage enjoyed by China along the land border with COT.

This should form the single most compounding factor to be considered for operationalising Theatre Command while reorganising its higher defense architecture.

The expansion of economy will involve greater reach into markets in volatile regions of East Asia, West Asia, Central Asia, Africa and established markets of Europe and Americas. This will necessitate securing its market access as well as ensuring safety of its trade and commerce over extended maritime trade routes.

The cultural dynamics, military terrain, economic interests, and geopolitical concerns in the regions to India’s east and the west are different. Towards its west, the high probability of implosion of Pakistan is a realistic scenario that should interest and engage India’s policy makers. To the east, establishing economic and security linkages should be the principal drivers of India’s realpolitik approach.

Broad Contours of Spatial Theatre Command Reforms

The discussed factors indicate outward focus of India’s land security to hinge on three separate Theatre Commands facing East, West, and the North, with an inward focused Theatre Command overseeing homeland security of the 3.28 million square kilometres of the mainland India.

In the maritime domain, India has to focus on securing its vast Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of 2.37 million square kilometres, the critical sea lanes of communication (SLOC), and extending area of naval influence into the IOR and the coastal seas of East Asia bordering the Pacific Ocean.

Here again the maritime and naval dynamics of operating in the narrow and shallow seas to the east, and the open waters of the Indian Ocean differ greatly. The two distinctive maritime waters dictate adopting differing naval doctrines, and major naval combatant platforms with differing specifications. All parameters dictate reorganising the maritime force into two distinct Maritime Theatre Commands facing East and West.

This brings us to the most dynamic, and indeterminate factor of ‘Akhand Bharat’, colonizing the extraterrestrial space for economic exploitation, that shall necessitate securing its interests in the two new dimensions of warfare, Cyberspace and Space. This necessitates for the Indian Air Force (IAF) to transform itself into an Aerospace Force. Realigning the IAF motto of ‘Touch the Sky with Glory’, to ‘Touch the Stars with Glory’, best highlights the shift in focus.  

The security of the Indian hinterland is primarily the domain of Ministry of Home Affairs (MoH). However, the newer technologies are forcefully blurring the areas of responsibility between the MoD and the MoH.

For example, the setting up of the Integrated Air Defence Command with the charter to secure the sovereign airspace, would entail exercising command & control over all air defence resources, to counter the full spectrum of aerial threats. This shall spill over into control of civil air space as well as UAVs employed in commercial enterprise. With drones and autonomous warheads emerging as the weapon of choice for asymmetrical warfare, coordination between MoD and MoH shall need to be more intricate and intimate. Same holds true for setting up of an Integrated Cyberspace Command.

Various options may be considered. One option would be to set up an Integrated Homeland Defence Command, incorporating MoH resources as well. Another option may be a Hinterland Theatre Command, which could also be tasked to hold reserve strategic resources.

Breaking The Current Logjam  

There are three broad issues in the current logjam on undertaking these military reforms.  

The first, is perception issue, that is lack of clarity in vision of Political and Military Leadership. The political leadership has to address this issue. The choice is stark; formalise the reforms to support the push for an ‘Akhand Bharat’, or shelve the reforms.

The second, is the Command & Control. This issue has become muddled with no clarity, as already highlighted earlier. To assist the RM, the post of CDS needs to be institutionalised in the chain of command of the Theatre and Integrated Commands, should be the way forward. The Theatre/Integrated Commands should be headed by four star ranks, with the CDS being of five star rank and in the operational chain of command.

Third, is the underlying concern of the IAF, of being subsumed by the Army, and of paucity of aerial combat platforms. There’s need for the IAF to transform from the conventional air domain to be an Aerospace Force, with Aerospace Theatre Command, and Integrated Cyberspace Command. Though not an ideal solution, the existing six operational IAF Commands should be merged into two operational Air Commands as an interim measure, till the anomaly is addressed.

The aspect of an integrated national Air Defence set up has to be addressed, in conjunction with the transformation of the IAF. The futuristic threat scenario dictates it. The access of non-state organisations to cheap, easy to handle, air/surface/sub-surface autonomous platforms, should be the cause for biggest alarm. Response time to successfully defend against such threats shall be in single digit minutes. The launch can be from anywhere, even from within the borders. The Indian airspace command & control has to be unitary, for it to be viable. This should be the first Integrated Command.

Army should go ahead and reorganise its current six operational Army Commands into four Theatre Commands, less the Air component; that can be incorporated at a later timeframe, by subsuming the resources of the proposed interim two IAF operational commands.

The two proposed Maritime Theatre Commands should be made operational at the earliest, as there’s least conflict of inter-service interests.

This restructuring will eventually evolve into joint operational Theatre Commands. This may be the most viable way to break the current logjam.


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