VELAPANTI DIARIES

Musings On The Coming World Geopolitical Order

“The ‘apas’ (water) energies, and the outcome of the battle between the Old and the New Age US industry Moghuls for influence over the US ‘Deep State’, shall be the key factor in defining the contours of the coming world geopolitical order, and the rise of India.” – Col RS Sidhu

 

A Fair Warning

These musings on the coming world order, are a dialectic mix of academic rigour buttressed with intuitive sensings!

The Clash of Narratives & Ideologies

Ideologies and accompanying narratives have long shaped human history. Competitive ideologies invariably give rise to war and strife, while narratives are intrinsic to their propagation and spread. Without an accompanying narrative, an ideology is destined to be confined within the bounds of the philosophic domain. It is the power of narrative, that strengthens the masses belief in own superiority, motivating and powering prolonged struggles, willingly enduring physical and economic hardships that result from such endeavours.

The ‘Crusades’ during the medieval age, ‘White Man’s Civilisation Burden’ of the 18^th and 19^th centuries, Hitler’s ‘Lebensraum’ in the middle 20^th century, and the most recent ‘Clash of Civilisations’, are fine examples of the ideological veneer narratives powering them.

The ‘bible’ of capitalism ‘Wealth of Nations’ by Adam Smith at the close of the 18^th century, and the rival Communist ideology propagated by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels ‘The Communist Manifesto’ towards the beginning of the 20^th century, are live examples of rival ideologies and narratives built around them, still bedeviling the geopolitics of the world.

Today, when the communist ideology has been quietly buried in Russia, the country that first adopted it, a hybrid socialist capitalist China is confronting the West, with Russia as its seconds. The confrontation between the US led West Bloc and the China Russia combine is already threatening to flare into the next destructive global conflagration.

The Rising ‘apas’ (water) Energies

A tectonic realignment of the world geopolitical order is taking shape shrouded under the mists of ‘chaos’ and ‘duality’, and propelled by the ‘apas’ energies. This rise of the ‘apas’ energies is best illustrated from the successful stage management of the ‘non pareil’ scale of human movement ever undertaken, during the recently concluded ‘Mahakumbh’ 2025, held at Prayagraj, India.

This event witnessed a congregation of 450 million plus devout for a holy dip over an open riverfront of 12 kilometers, in a span of 45 continuous days. Just contrast this with largest assessed gatherings elsewhere; 2.5 million devout during the Hajj pilgrimage at Mecca in Saudi Arabia over a five days duration; and 35 million pilgrims likely to visit St Peter’s Basilica in Rome during the Jubilee Year 2025.

No wonder, the logistics of ‘Mahakumbh’ augur the arrival of ‘Bharat’, that is India, as an ascending global power in its own right. This should visibly deepen the furrows of worry on the collective foreheads of its adversaries. ‘Vasudev Kutumbakam’ (world is one), and ‘rule based order’ are in reality India’s unique paraphrasing, heralding its arrival on the world geopolitical stage.

It should interest us that the major ongoing conflicts around the world, with a high probability of spiralling into a global conflagration, are all centered near large water bodies. The war in Rus region is adjoining the Black Sea, while the conflict in Levant is contiguous to the Mediterranean Sea. The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are already designated the most dangerous shipping route of the world.

Even the future high risk conflict areas are all centered around seas and oceans. Any US-Israel action against Iran shall aflame the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, while the Chinese threat to forcefully amalgamate Taiwan brings to focus the water bodies of the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. So also shall be the case with any eventual India - China war, engulfing the Indian Ocean and the frozen waters of the Great Himalayas and Karakoram. 

Principles of ‘Duality’ & ‘Chaos’

The subject gets even more interesting when we grasp the essence of the principles of ‘Duality’ and ‘Chaos’ being central to the construct of the ‘Brahmand’ (Universe) and its progression in time. The ‘dark’ and the ‘visible’ spectrum of matter represent the ‘duality’ inherent in the ‘Brahmand’; whereas, the ‘Chaos’ is represented by the freewheeling celestial bodies that streak through interstellar time and space on ‘free’ trajectories. On the Earth, a microcosm of the ‘Brahmand’, this ‘duality’ is exemplified by human nature; while ‘Chaos’ is interpolated through human ‘free will’.

The current global conflict dynamics are already building up to flare into a global conflagration, in the next three to five years of foreseeable future. Only interjecting the phenomenon of ‘Chaos’ can turn this eventuality. This shall be predominantly dependent on the disruptive impact of two strong personalities.

First is Donald Trump. All actions being undertaken by him, since his second swearing in as the POTUS, undeniably point to his breathing ‘fire and brimstone’ as a deliberate instrument of state policy. His success in grasping the nuances of the principle of ‘duality’, shall dictate the extent to which he is able to shape new geopolitical realities that align a transformational relationship with Russia, thereby weaning it away from China.

The second is Elon Musk, acting as POTUS Donald Trump’s quintessential ‘Pathfinder’, dealing out ‘Chaos’. Shorn of all smokescreens, Elon Musk aims to orchestrate aligning of governmental policies to his alarming vision of developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) to the next stage of Self Evolving Artificial Intelligence (SEAI), and setting rules that open the way for colonisation of extraterrestrial bodies by corporations. This has the strongest potential to shift the centre of gravity of the ongoing conflict for ‘deep earth’ resources and resultant global supremacy, to the realm of ‘deep space’ colonisation. This has inherent potential to defer the projected doomsday scenario.

Choices made and implemented shall have their own detrimental consequences, but then the choice is rarely ever between good and evil. More often than not choosing the lesser evil is the sensible and logical option when own existence and that of the future generations is at stake.

The Duality of ‘Geoeconomics’ in ‘Geopolitics’

“…A strong and friendly Russia would serve US and NATO interests better in checkmating China, their acknowledged number one adversary. The US would have been well advised to drive a wedge between Russia and China. But all attempts previously by former President Trump to forge a friendly relationship with Russia were foiled by its military-industrial, and energy lobbies…It is these lobbies which are driving US policy vis a vis Russia, driving the Bear and the Dragon into a close but uncomfortable embrace… Earlier in the 1970s, when faced with USSR led Communist challenge, US under Nixon – Kissinger leadership had engineered a rapprochement with China to weaken the Communist bloc...”

The above words, closely mirroring the current policy rationalisations now being articulated by POTUS Donald Trump and his ‘Chaotic’ pointspersons, are extracts from the post “US Dilemma Over Ukraine Crisis & Global Geopolitical Power Shift” datelined 24 February 2022, full text accessible at link below

https://valleysandvalour.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-dilemma-over-ukraine-crisis.html

The presence and influence of policy lobbyists in US polity is legally established. The four major lobby domains comprising the military-industrial complex, energy, pharma, and the evangelical sectors, may be loosely termed as the ‘Deep State’ within the US, owing to their overarching influence over the apex governance structure in US.

The Old Moghuls of US industry, representing the energy and armaments lobby, have suborned the sovereign might of the US government in pursuit of profits by exploiting ‘deep earth’ mineral resources across the globe, through all means fair and foul. Today it is difficult to distinguish the US ‘Deep State’ from the ‘deep earth’ interests. Pursuing a widening of the Ukraine war agenda for greater windfall profits, despite the war being detrimental to core US interests, fairly represents the extent of subornment of the apex US governance hierarchy.

Their leverage over the US foreign policy is best sensed from the impact of the ‘Covid 19 pandemic’ and the ongoing ‘Ukraine conflict’ on the profit margins and the scale of economics of these four major domains. 

The US pharmaceutical industry generated US Dollar 550 billion annual revenue in 2021, post ‘Covid 19 pandemic’. It stands at USD 634.32 billion in 2024 and is estimated to value USD 884 billion by 2030.

Post commencement of the ‘Ukraine conflict’ on 24^th of February 2022 and the consequential economic sanctions, just five of the biggest oil companies, Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies, recorded profits amounting to nearly US Dollar 200 billion in that very year, and paid record US Dollar 110 billion dividend and share repurchases to investors. Their gross revenues as of 2023 stand at US Dollar 1.3 trillion.

The US armaments companies earned a gross revenue of US Dollar 200 billion plus in 2022, against the 2021 revenues of US Dollar 103 billion. These stand at US Dollar 632 billion in 2023.

The US evangelical industry generated a combined annual revenue of US Dollar 378 billion. Two-thirds of total charity donations in US are to religious institutes, with much of these donations being funnelled into religious propagation across the world.

The Neo Moghuls of US new age technology industry, on the other hand, are actively pursuing to divert the sovereign might of the US government to assist their exploitation of ‘deep space’ natural resources. Heavy involvement of the US in Ukraine war is adversely impacting US global supremacy. This also impairs its capability to sculpt a favourable playing field for its ‘deep space’ industry.

The POTUS Donald Trump is against the Ukraine war, looks at Russia as a natural ally against the real adversary China, and champions ‘US first’ ideology. Donald Trump during his first US Presidency couldn’t openly pursue his external agenda of a rapprochement with Russia, because of investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 US Presidential election, and allegations of business interest conflict.

His declared stance to stop the Ukraine war has resulted in a convergence of interests with the powerful US Neo Moghuls representing ‘deep space’ interests.  Under the circumstances the support for Trump II by Elon Musk and other Neo Moghuls, representing new age technology US multinationals, is a natural alliance that is mutually fruitful. The Neo Mughals are aflush with funds, so essential to run political influence campaigns, and entice the very ‘deep state’ away from the ‘deep earth’ interests.

The Current Flow of Duality in Global Geopolitics

Eminent US and European geoeconomics and geopolitical think tanks and more aware political leaders have long been pointing to China as the real challenger to the global supremacy of the US led West Bloc. There have been ample warnings that westward expansion of NATO is against the core interest of the US and EU, as it would inevitably lead to conflict with Russia, which would be detrimental to their long term interest, as it diverts critical resources needed to counter China.

On the other hand, Russia is alive to the potential threat posed by a strong and unchecked China neighbouring its thinly populated but mineral rich Siberia to the east, especially as China also voices claim to the Vladivostok region of Russia. However, to counter the greater threat of an emerging conflict with US led West Bloc, Russia has been forced into an uncomfortable alliance with China. That the latter is an unreliable geopolitical ally, is a proven point when it parted ways with Russia at the peak of the US-USSR Cold War during the early 1970’s, to align with the US.

Russia and China have joined hands with Brazil, India, and South Africa to form BRICS, a geoeconomics bloc, that aims at developing an alternative international trading, banking, and finance system. This would strike at the very roots of the US global power edifice based on the supremacy of the US Dollar.

Without the choke hold on the international trading, banking, and finance system, the US led West Bloc is unlikely to survive the economic and financial challenge from the BRICS. To counter this challenge, US has been pressing ahead to tie down Russia in an indirect military confrontation in the region of Rus in Europe, openly assisting Israel to secure an overarching dominant position in the energy rich Levant, while covertly provoking instability in South Asia to deter China, and warn off India.

The turbulence in India’s northeast and the adjoining countries of Bangladesh and Myanmar, the reluctant pullback from northeastern Ladakh by China, and the violent free for all along the western borders of Pakistan, are all interlinked. An ingenious US strategy that chokes the CPEC and CMEC, the alternative external energy supply lines of energy deficient China. Simultaneously, it is promoting centrifugal forces along India’s vulnerable northeastern flank, with the underlying premise of forcing India to abandon the BRICS and its global economic architecture in the making, that threatens US global economic leadership.

By flaming the South Asian arc, the US hopes to stymie emergence of India as an independent geopolitical pole, and force it to embrace the US led West Bloc. 

However, with the coming to power of the POTUS Donald Trump, and his ‘disruptor at large’, Elon Musk, it has introduced an alternate strategy to secure continued US dominance on the world stage. The former brings to the table a tacit acceptance of Russian dominance in the region of Rus, in exchange for Israeli dominance of the Levant. This stratagem also has the potential to set into motion successive chain of events that draws Russia into a broad alliance of interests with the US, after ditching its alliance with China. This leaves the US free to focus its full energy and resources on taking on the challenge from a marginalised China.

Elon Musk, on the other hand, is well poised to lead the US geopolitical dominance into the world of ‘extraterrestrial space’; orchestrating the rise and expansion of the first supranational-corporation ‘from emergence stage in 2023, to the next stage of influential dominance’ in 2025; a supra-national corporation with near sovereign influence, whose acts of omissions and commissions shall have greater impact on life on Earth than even the most powerful state that he currently represents.  

“Geoeconomics, the tail that wags the dog of Geopolitics!”

The impact of ‘Industrial Revolution’ of the 18^th and 19^th century, coupled with enforced transfer of wealth from their colonial empires around the world, had made Europe the centre for wealth generation. In the 20^th century, post-World War 2, the epicenter of wealth generation shifted to the US. In the 21^st century, the rise of China, the East Asian economies, and increasing economic heft of India, is progressively shifting the centre of wealth generation to Asia. The ongoing conflict in Rus, the heartland of Europe, and its debilitating impact on the embroiled European Union, has further hastened the marginalising of Europe and speed up the process of Asia being the new economic fulcrum of the world.

In the emerging scenario, the geographical space occupied by India, coupled with its demographic mass, growing scientific and industrial base, huge consumer market, and increasing military heft, give it unique advantage. It is now the only country which has the ability to act as the pivot for the US led West Bloc against the overwhelming dominance of China in Asia, the new epicenter of wealth generation.

This is where the probability of an informal US – Russia – India trilateral grouping shows promise. Whereas, what US and Russia bring to the table in such a transformational relationship is generally well known, it’s the value offered by India that shall add the requisite mass needed to shift the centre of gravity away from China.

If the US succeeds in orchestrating Russia away from its opportunistic alliance with China, India’s shared interests’ relationship with Russia opens up a whole new world of geopolitical partnerships… China’s subtle climbdown to defuse the tensions along the northern borders with India, may be ascribed to the dawning of realisation of such a probability!!!

Looking beyond the immediate future we can already see looming over the horizon the extraterrestrial space as the next centre of wealth generation. This is the space that Elon Musk and his ilk look to target and colonise, with active support from the ‘Deep State’ of the US. If the US and China are able to shift the centre of gravity of their struggle for wealth generation and consequential generation of wealth from ‘deep earth’ to ‘deep space’, it shall potentially deflect the coming global conflagration.   

Continuance of the in place US ‘Deep State’ policies shall inevitably entail a widening of the Ukraine conflict into a nuclear exchange. In this scenario, US led NATO alliance will get fully sucked into this war effort, thereby denuding itself of the capability to effectively intervene against opportune Chinese offensive actions against US allies in the far away Indo-Pacific maritime region. While Russia too shall be neutralised, the widened conflict panorama will also sound the death knell of the global supremacy being enjoyed by the US led West Bloc.

A nuclear catastrophe shall adversely impact even the non-participant countries. Food famines, reduction in industrial production, disruptions in maritime trade and global supply chain, very high inflation, health pandemics, environment devastation, shall severely contract national economies across the globe.

The metamorphosis of the US ‘deep state’ alignment from ‘deep earth’ to ‘deep space’ interests shall inject new dynamics in global power play. This will also impact US-India relations. Sculpting a favourable playing field for US new age technology MNCs, shall present new conflict of interests between US and India, which the latter shall need to anticipate and negotiate with due care.

India’s biggest leverage with the US in the coming transformational powerplay is the unthinkable alternative of yet another potential transformational relationship, a Russia – China – India grouping that has the potential to overshadow any other power combination. This would have the largest demographic mass, consumer market, scientific and industrial base, geographic reach, and the military heft to go with all the above. However, China’s antagonistic relationship with India, shrouds this axis with uncertainties and unlikely to last the course.