SPREADING WEST ASIA CONFLAGRATION


“The Mediterranean, Red, and the Caspian Seas region has overtaken Ukraine as the most geopolitically combustible region currently in the world.” - Col RS Sidhu


Backdrop

Nearly ten months into the ongoing Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas, more and more Iran backed extremist groups, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis from Yemen have entered the fray, by employing surface launched and aerial projectiles to attack the state of Israel.

Israel on its part has unequivocally declared its war aim to exterminate Hamas and its top leadership. The Israel Defense Force has been employing a two-fold military strategy against Hamas militia, by launching conventional military operations against Hamas armed cadres and logistics infrastructure, and launching targeted strikes against senior Hamas political and military leadership. These military operations have severely degraded combat potential of the Hamas.

Liquidation of Ismael Haniyeh

Ismael Haniyeh was the hardline Hamas leader who had thrown his whole weight behind the Hamas incursion into Israel, and was the main stumbling block to returning Israeli hostages in Hamas custody, and ceasefire deal. The continued rigid stand of Ismael Haniyeh against a ceasefire deal with Israel, predicated on release of Israeli hostages in Hamas custody, was proving to be a liability to his backers.

Haniyeh was in Tehran to attend the swearing in ceremony of the recently elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and was accommodated in a high special security zone in the Iranian capital. He was targeted in the early hours of 31 July 2024 by what is presently indicated to be an aerial launched precision munition with a long stand-off range, leading to his death alongwith his bodyguard. Israel is widely suspected to be behind this assassination, though no evidence has surfaced so far pointing to its involvement.

Israel has multiple air launched PGMs in its inventory. One such is the air launched GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bomb (SDB), with a strike range of 64 kilometers. It’s optimally designed for precision strike in congested areas, while minimising collateral damage.
It is armed with a multipurpose penetrating blast-and-fragmentation warhead, a programmable fuse, and comes equipped with advanced anti-jamming measures. Its GPS enabled inertial navigation system makes it suitable to engage moving as well as stationary targets. The only issue is that of range, as the launch platform most probably didn’t penetrate Iranian airspace. A similar air to ground PGM with enhanced range or a long range armed drone strike would have been employed.

It’s also interesting to visualise the flight route which the aerial attack vehicles may have taken. The closest approach to Tehran is from the Caspian Sea. Iran’s neighbour Azerbaijan too has a coastline on this sea. Interestingly Israel has military ties with Azerbaijan. That’s the most likely approach scenario. The other being from across Iraqi airspace, a remoter possibility.

Broader Implications

The midnight assassination of Ismael Haniyeh in the special security zone in the very heart of Tehran is the most determining evidence that Hamas leadership no longer has a safe hiding place from the retribution of Israel. Apparently, Gaza is comparatively safer for Hamas leadership then outside! This killing leaves one more prime target Yahya Sinwar, the military commander of Hamas, to be neutralised before Netanyahu can proclaim victory.

His dramatic assassination opens up greater opportunities for a face saving deal for all involved major nations and personalities. For this to happen a fig leaf of plausible deniability is essential for forward movement on resolution of the current multifaceted conflict in West Asia.

Deepening divisions in society, combat fatigue, weakened economy, domestic political challenges, all these factors combined are having a debilitating impact on Israel, as well as Iran. For Israel it’s a matter of survival. As a last resort its leadership is capable of taking resort to nuclear option. On the other hand, for Iran it’s a case of survive to fight another day. It cannot destroy Israel without getting decimated itself!!!

Any open war between Israel and Iran backed Hezbollah would invite greater US intervention that may involve Iran more directly in the ongoing conflict. Iranian economy cannot withstand the strain of a major open conflict. Such an eventuality would greatly weaken Iran itself as also endangers its extremist allied network in West Asia.

Propaganda rhetoric apart, Iran does not want to get involved in open hostilities, as it would provide legitimacy to any probable intervention by US in support of Israel. That’s the key reason for Hezbollah desperately signalling their willingness to withdraw their forces to north of Litani river, from the Lebanon border with Israel.

Excepting for China, and to a lesser extent Russia, a wider conflagration in West Asia is not in the interest of any other country. Greater US involvement in West Asia makes US intervention that much more unlikely, in the contested maritime region adjoining Taiwan, and the South China Sea waters closer to China mainland. For Russia, it indicates a lessening of pressure in its weak underbelly of Ukraine.

Thus, broadening of the conflict horizon is not in the interest of the major players in the ongoing conflict. The most likely immediate outcome shall be a staged overt retaliation by Iran, followed by a counter response by Israel, with the latter also conducting aerial strikes within Lebanon.

India’s Interests in the Region

India has deep strategic interests in the West Asia region and the major seas adjoining it. West Asia is home to the largest Indian diaspora in the world, roughly 8.5 million, that remits US Dollar 80 billion annually. India is also dependent on this region for 40% of its energy imports.

Iran is crucial to India for providing land access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, while also exercising substantial influence over the 20 million Shia muslim population of India.

Israel, on the other hand, is crucial to India for meeting critical defense needs. India also maintains a close relationship with Saudi Arabia-UAE, other rivals of Iran.

Interestingly, India is also partnering both the rival extra-regional blocs, the US led West Bloc, and the Russia-China-Iran partnership to develop competitive trade corridors into Europe. The India-Middle East-Europe Trade Corridor (IMEETC) through the Arabian Sea, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Mediterranean Sea, Greece into Europe. Another is the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the India-Iran (Chabahar Port)-Azerbaijan-Central Asia-Russia-Europe multi-modal freight corridor.

China’s adversarial relationship with India, has deteriorated the security environment along India’s land and maritime borders, while its covert engagement in the West Asia region to pursue its own geopolitical interests, further muddies the waters of the West Asian seas for India.

The widening of the West Asia conflict zone shall make it ever more difficult for India to navigate the treacherous shoals of diplomacy to safeguard its national interest.

 

First published in Financial Express online edition

https://wwwfinancialexpress.com/business/defence-spreading-west-asia-conflagration-3571019/


Comments

  1. army uncleAugust 1, 2024 at 4:14 PM

    A well written article which emphasises the difficuly path diplomacy has to charter while choosing friends and earmaking foes in a interdependent world .Shades of grey !Perhaps neutrality may be resurrected as an element of state policy in the future as diplomacy becomes a fine art on the edge .India might be unique example of a nation which treads this path with adriotness .On the other hand taking out of iIsmael Haniyeh in a specially protected zone /envelop in Iran again speaks volumes about the effectiveness of Mossad.Israel in its chosen path of eliminating all the supporters of Hezbollah etc who are blocking hostage release may well demonstrate how terrorism can be surgically targetted.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Valleys and ValourAugust 5, 2024 at 12:48 AM

      Thank you for your views @armyuncle, decisions and responses are equally factored by the degree to which own skin is in the game!

      Delete

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