SPREADING
WEST ASIA CONFLAGRATION
Nearly ten months into the
ongoing Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas, more and more Iran backed
extremist groups, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis from Yemen have entered
the fray, by employing surface launched and aerial projectiles to attack the
state of Israel.
Israel on its
part has unequivocally declared its war aim to exterminate Hamas and its top
leadership. The Israel Defense Force has been employing a two-fold military
strategy against Hamas militia, by launching conventional military operations
against Hamas armed cadres and logistics infrastructure, and launching targeted
strikes against senior Hamas political and military leadership. These military
operations have severely degraded combat potential of the Hamas.
Liquidation of
Ismael Haniyeh
Ismael Haniyeh
was the hardline Hamas leader who had thrown his whole weight behind the Hamas
incursion into Israel, and was the main stumbling block to returning Israeli
hostages in Hamas custody, and ceasefire deal. The continued rigid stand of
Ismael Haniyeh against a ceasefire deal with Israel, predicated on release of
Israeli hostages in Hamas custody, was proving to be a liability to his
backers.
Haniyeh was in
Tehran to attend the swearing in ceremony of the recently elected Iranian
President Masoud
Pezeshkian, and was accommodated in a high special security zone in the Iranian
capital. He was targeted in the early hours of 31 July 2024 by what is
presently indicated to be an aerial launched precision munition with a long
stand-off range, leading to his death alongwith his bodyguard. Israel is widely
suspected to be behind this assassination, though no evidence has surfaced so
far pointing to its involvement.
It’s also
interesting to visualise the flight route which the aerial attack vehicles may
have taken. The closest approach to Tehran is from the Caspian Sea. Iran’s
neighbour Azerbaijan too has a coastline on this sea. Interestingly Israel has
military ties with Azerbaijan. That’s the most likely approach scenario. The
other being from across Iraqi airspace, a remoter possibility.
Broader
Implications
The midnight
assassination of Ismael Haniyeh in the special security zone in the very heart
of Tehran is the most determining evidence that Hamas leadership no longer has
a safe hiding place from the retribution of Israel. Apparently, Gaza is
comparatively safer for Hamas leadership then outside! This killing leaves one
more prime target Yahya Sinwar, the military commander of Hamas, to be
neutralised before Netanyahu can proclaim victory.
His dramatic
assassination opens up greater opportunities for a face saving deal for all
involved major nations and personalities. For this to happen a fig leaf of
plausible deniability is essential for forward movement on resolution of the
current multifaceted conflict in West Asia.
Deepening
divisions in society, combat fatigue, weakened economy, domestic political
challenges, all these factors combined are having a debilitating impact on
Israel, as well as Iran. For Israel it’s a matter of survival. As a last resort
its leadership is capable of taking resort to nuclear option. On the other
hand, for Iran it’s a case of survive to fight another day. It cannot destroy
Israel without getting decimated itself!!!
Any open war
between Israel and Iran backed Hezbollah would invite greater US intervention
that may involve Iran more directly in the ongoing conflict. Iranian economy
cannot withstand the strain of a major open conflict. Such an eventuality would
greatly weaken Iran itself as also endangers its extremist allied network in
West Asia.
Propaganda
rhetoric apart, Iran does not want to get involved in open hostilities, as it
would provide legitimacy to any probable intervention by US in support of
Israel. That’s the key reason for Hezbollah desperately signalling their
willingness to withdraw their forces to north of Litani river, from the Lebanon
border with Israel.
Excepting for
China, and to a lesser extent Russia, a wider conflagration in West Asia is not
in the interest of any other country. Greater US involvement in West Asia makes
US intervention that much more unlikely, in the contested maritime region
adjoining Taiwan, and the South China Sea waters closer to China mainland. For
Russia, it indicates a lessening of pressure in its weak underbelly of Ukraine.
Thus,
broadening of the conflict horizon is not in the interest of the major players
in the ongoing conflict. The most likely immediate outcome shall be a staged
overt retaliation by Iran, followed by a counter response by Israel, with the
latter also conducting aerial strikes within Lebanon.
India’s Interests in the Region
India has deep strategic interests in the West Asia
region and the major seas adjoining it. West Asia is home to the largest Indian
diaspora in the world, roughly 8.5 million, that remits US Dollar 80 billion
annually. India is also dependent on this region for 40% of its energy imports.
Iran is crucial to India for providing land access
to Afghanistan and Central Asia, while also exercising substantial influence
over the 20 million Shia muslim population of India.
Israel, on the other hand, is crucial to India for
meeting critical defense needs. India also maintains a close relationship with
Saudi Arabia-UAE, other rivals of Iran.
Interestingly, India is also partnering both the
rival extra-regional blocs, the US led West Bloc, and the Russia-China-Iran
partnership to develop competitive trade corridors into Europe. The
India-Middle East-Europe Trade Corridor (IMEETC) through the Arabian Sea, UAE,
Saudi Arabia, Israel, Mediterranean Sea, Greece into Europe. Another is the
International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the India-Iran (Chabahar
Port)-Azerbaijan-Central Asia-Russia-Europe multi-modal freight corridor.
China’s adversarial relationship with India, has
deteriorated the security environment along India’s land and maritime borders,
while its covert engagement in the West Asia region to pursue its own
geopolitical interests, further muddies the waters of the West Asian seas for
India.
The widening of the West Asia conflict zone shall
make it ever more difficult for India to navigate the treacherous shoals of
diplomacy to safeguard its national interest.
First published in Financial Express online edition
https://wwwfinancialexpress.com/business/defence-spreading-west-asia-conflagration-3571019/
A well written article which emphasises the difficuly path diplomacy has to charter while choosing friends and earmaking foes in a interdependent world .Shades of grey !Perhaps neutrality may be resurrected as an element of state policy in the future as diplomacy becomes a fine art on the edge .India might be unique example of a nation which treads this path with adriotness .On the other hand taking out of iIsmael Haniyeh in a specially protected zone /envelop in Iran again speaks volumes about the effectiveness of Mossad.Israel in its chosen path of eliminating all the supporters of Hezbollah etc who are blocking hostage release may well demonstrate how terrorism can be surgically targetted.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your views @armyuncle, decisions and responses are equally factored by the degree to which own skin is in the game!
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