A FRACTURED POLITY AND UNMAKING OF PAKISTAN

PART II - MANAGING THE UNMAKING

 

“The feeling of brouhaha that the very thought of breakup of Pakistan generates within the Indian polity, while truly symptomatic of the great degree of bitterness between the two rivals, may not be so vociferous, were the nuances of pitfalls galore in managing this unravelling are clearly understood.” – Col RS Sidhu

 

Successfully managing the probable unmaking of Pakistan definitely necessitates a cool headed approach.

The State of Pakistan

Pakistan is presently at the most vulnerable stage in its short history of 77 years, deemed to be, more or less, a failed state, with a failed economy, kept afloat on external loans. Against an annual GDP of US $ 340 billion, Pakistan has an external debt of US $ 130 billion, with foreign currency reserves worth US $ 13 billion, barely adequate to cover two months of critical imports, and an inflation rate fluctuating between 23% to 36%. 

The genesis of Pakistan was surmised on the ‘two nation theory’ that India comprised of two nations, a Hindu, and a Muslim India. However, the theory got debunked within 25 years of the creation of Pakistan, when the Bangla half of Pakistan revolted to form Bangladesh in 1971. This was the real beginning of the unravelling of Pakistan as a Muslim nation. Ethnic, linguistic, and cultural affinities proved stronger than religious ties. The off and on animosity between the two Hindu predominant secular states of India and Nepal, is yet another proof that common religious bonds are not enough to overcome core national self-interests.

Unbridgeable fissures in Pakistan polity are distinctly visible. The root cause of the centrifugal forces in Pakistan is the domination of the national body politic, and the army, by its Punjab province elite. The army, to maintain its grip over the Pakistan state has systematically weakened the constitutional institutions and the political parties. Today, Pakistan is internally wrecked with fierce insurgencies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, while facing growing discontent in Sindh, Azad Kashmir, and Gilgit Baltistan provinces. The desperate attempt to hold the state together through radical Islamisation has only succeeded in promoting religious fundamentalist forces, further exacerbating the fissures in the nation’s body politic.

The population breakdown of Pakistan is, 110 million in Punjab, Sindh 48 million, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 36 million, Balochistan 12 million, Azad Kashmir 4 million, Gilgit Baltistan 2 million, and Islamabad Capital Territory 2 million. The ethnic breakdown of this population is, 45% Punjabi, 17% Pashtun, 14% Sindhi 8% Saraiki, 8% Mohajir, 4% Baloch, and others 4%. Linguistically speaking, each province has a different main language, Punjabi in Punjab, Pashto in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochi in Balochistan, Sindhi in Sindh, and local dialects in Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan.

On the other hand, the broad area of each province in sq kms is, Balochistan 3,47,200, Punjab 2,05,300, Sindh 1,40,900, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 1,01,700, Gilgit Baltistan 72,500, Azad Kashmir 13,200, Islamabad Capital Territory 900. 

To add to the woes of Pakistan, its policy of cross-border interference in neighbouring countries has saddled it with guarding 3300 kms of hostile border with India to its east, 2600 kms disputed border along Durand Line to its west with Afghanistan, 900 kms uneasy border with Iran, also to its west, and 600 kms ‘settled’ border to its north with China by ceding 5200 sq kms Indian claimed territory in Shaksgam valley.  

The unravelling of a failed nuclear armed state, such as Pakistan, would come with a unique set of complications, not only for the nation as such, but also for the neighbouring countries. To comprehend the repercussions on India, of a collapsing Pakistan, we first need to take a broad look at the disintegration of USSR, and the consequential unification of Germany.

Collapse of the USSR 1989 - 91

The sudden collapse of the USSR within three years, from 1989 to 1991, was the most monumental geopolitical event at the close of the 20^th century. The geopolitical overreach by USSR by the 1980s had resulted in its economic meltdown. Consequential weakening of the USSR state external and internal coercive apparatus led to the breakup of the country. The Warsaw Pact, the coercive instrument to maintain the grip of USSR on satellite countries, became defunct leading to Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Albania, moving out of the orbit of the USSR.

Internally, the fourteen outlying provincial regions of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, became independent countries, with Russia remaining the rump successor to the USSR. The collapsing Russian economy, urgent political reforms, and immediate economic restructuring, led to 50% fall in GDP, hyperinflation, severe depreciation of the ruble, debt default, mass migration of labour in search of better economic prospects, increased poverty, rise of organised crime syndicates, and social unrest.

One of the foremost issue to emerge from the collapse of USSR was the safety of its nuclear assets located in the breakaway republics. Out of the massive 45,000 nuclear weapons with USSR on its breakup, 3200 nuclear weapons were deployed in the three newly independent countries of Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. After prolonged tripartite diplomatic engagements, involving US, and Russia, with the respective breakaway republics, all nuclear weapons deployed within the territory of the latter nations were voluntarily removed to Russia or were moved out to be destroyed under international safeguards.

Unification of Germany 1989 - 91

The fall of the Berlin wall in 1989 was, in significance, second only to the collapse of the USSR. This led to the commencement of the German reunification/unity process,  with the "Unification Treaty" entering into force on 3^rd October 1990, whereby the German Democratic Republic was dissolved and integrated into the Federal Republic of Germany. The share of erstwhile East Germany towards overall GDP of Germany post reunification was a mere 8%. Within a year after unification, industrial production in erstwhile Eastern Germany fell to less than half the previous volume, coupled with a sharp increase in unemployment figures touching 3 million. The weakened productivity in East Germany was largely an outcome of the transformation from state sector to private economy, and the new regulations East German businesses had to follow, which made their products uncompetitive.

There were several key issues which needed to be addressed on priority. First was the need for restructuring businesses from East Germany. Second critical aspect was the renovation of infrastructure in East Germany, especially in energy, transport, and communications sectors. Third subject was the requirement of environmental renovation in East Germany.

Other important factors which had to be resolved were, disparity in currency rates, the vast differences between former East Germany and West Germany in lifestyle, wealth, and political beliefs, and mass migration from eastern part to the west. The economic cost of assimilation of East Germany to the unified German exchequer was to the tune of 2 trillion Euros over 20 years.

Issues in Unmaking of Pakistan

In addition to the issues enumerated above, there are four unique and critical factors in the probable unravelling of Pakistan, which shall impact the overall management of this happening.

First and foremost is the overwhelmingly dominant role of the Army in Pakistan which, apart from its vice like grip over the civilian state apparatus, manages business entrepreneurial ventures generating revenues amounting to 10% of the national GDP, and engages three million civilians on its payrolls. Managing the assimilation/disposal of the 6,50,000 strong regular army and 3,00,000 paramilitary force rank and file, of this state within a state, shall be the most crucial factor. The Punjabi military elite shall be loath to give up their dominance. As a last resort, they shall definitely attempt to hold onto a rump Pakistan comprising Punjab province with a link to the sea.

Second, and equally relevant factor shall be the safety and security of Pakistan nuclear assets, especially the stockpile of nuclear weapons and fissile material. This gains further criticality, in view of their dispersed deployment across all its provinces, and the deep inroads of Islamic fundamentalist philosophy within the rank and file of the Pakistan army. The danger of nuclear weapons and nuclear fissile material falling into fundamentalist hands is live and present.

The third very significant factor shall be the role of China, which has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure development in Pakistan, as part of its BR&I projects, from Gwadar port on the Makran coastline along the Arabian sea down south, to Khunjerab Pass in the north. These are projects which China regards as utmost critical to its national energy security. Chinese sensitivity to this aspect may be assessed from the well-established covert deployment of Chinese PLA assets in Gwadar and Gilgit Baltistan. China with its pronounced hostility towards India, would likely attempt to intervene to secure its national interests under the umbrella of international agreements already entered into between Pakistan and China.

The fourth factor is the Islamic fundamentalist ideology which has taken deep roots within the state administrative machinery and the society as a whole. Any attempt to unify with a fundamentalist majoritarian Pakistan would likely open the floodgates for entry of jihadist culture into the body politic of the host nation. In the case of India, adding another 200 million or so Islamic fundamentalist population may introduce a major destabilising influence in its civil society.

Plausible Scenarios

Here we are considering three plausible scenarios, a mutually agreed upon unification of India and Pakistan, implosion of Pakistan state due to internal contradictions, breakaway by one or two provinces of Pakistan aided and abetted by external forces. A fourth option, forced amalgamation of Pakistan by a neighbouring country, is not being considered, as none of the neighbouring country has the strategic wherewithal to execute this option, more so, as it lends a window to intervention by China, a major world power.  

A mutually agreed upon unification of India and Pakistan, on the face of it, seems a viable solution to the economic and demographic travails of the latter. However, it suffers from some serious drawbacks. First, and foremost, would be the dilemma of disposal/amalgamation of Pakistan armed forces and paramilitary organisations. Whereas Pakistan armed forces would not settle for anything other than amalgamation with the Indian armed forces, India on the other hand would like to avoid merger of the two armies, owing to the proclivity for business entrepreneurship, and political interference, which the Pakistan army is known for. Secondly, integration of an economically bankrupt Pakistan would invariably result in mass migration from west to east into India. The combined strain of external debt payout of Pakistan, along with the burden of managing additional 200 million strong population would destabilise the Indian economic progress, with concomitant political fallout. Any curtailment of Chinese rights over their BRI projects would be another contentious issue.

The implosion of Pakistan state due to internal contradictions, is one of the more plausible scenario. This would entail breaking away of Gilgit Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, and Sindh, leaving Punjab province as a rump Pakistan state. This scenario is fraught with savage infighting as Pakistan army shall attempt to stave off the outcome of a landlocked Punjab, by attempting to secure a passage through Sindh/ Balochistan, to the Arabian Sea. It may more likely result in intervention by both China and India, as they race to secure their respective national interests.

The third scenario looks at breakaway by one or two provinces of Pakistan, aided and abetted by external forces. Such a probability shall invariably involve Pakistan in a protracted civil war. There is a high probability of this civil war transforming into a war with the involved external forces. The threat of intervention by China, as well as India, will be equally high.

Food for Thought

We can safely conclude that there are no soft options in the unmaking of Pakistan. Until and unless this unmaking is of Pakistan’s own actions, all plausible scenarios are fraught with serious repercussions. Active involvement of like minded external forces, such as US or Russia, in conjunction with neighbouring countries, would pay greatest dividends in stage managing/controlling the unmaking of Pakistan.