REALPOLITIK PERSPECTIVE ON THE BYZANTINE GAZA CONFLAGRATION

 

“Green mixed with red creates yellow, one of the most dynamic colour with unique power to induce contradictory vibrations that can strengthen or weaken the environment by stimulating relations or sowing betrayal and danger. The forging of a geopolitical partnership between a ‘Red’ China with a ‘Green’ Iran emits ominous portends.” – Col RS Sidhu

“It is commonsense in byzantine conflicts that the affected population be most wary of being reduced to pawns in the power games of friends and foes alike, for the only fate that awaits pawns is to be sacrificed at the altar of the God of War.” – Col RS Sidhu

 

Battle of Perception

The past half a century has spawned nearly a hundred inter and intra state wars, conflicts, and insurrections caused by irredentist ideology, religious bigotry, ethnic persecution, and plain rapaciousness. The violence during this period has resulted in enforced change of close to fifty international boundaries, killing more than half a million people, and rendering more than 100 million refugees. This pursuit of ‘national interests by all means fair and foul’ by the comity of nations, is more attuned to the law of the jungle than the commonly propagated belief of an enlightened and progressive humankind guided by principles of justness, morality, and ethics.

An average of near 100,000 people get killed annually in internecine open conflicts and insurgencies, more than 30 of which are raging across the globe as on date. UNHCR estimates that there are 117.2 million refugees in the world today. The overt and covert involvement of the five permanent member countries of the UN Security Council in these ongoing conflicts is also well documented.

Quite often a righteous ‘causus belli’ is shaped to circumvent international laws and conventions, to pursue national interests through coercive application of military force. Hence, scrutinising the deeds of the warring protagonists is more likely to discern the verity than going by the words.

To fathom this aspect, just observe the varying stands of the leading global powers on the catastrophic deaths and destruction of civil life, liberty, and infrastructure, in the ongoing military interventions in Syria, Ukraine, and the Palestine region. Over the last decade almost 50 % of the population of Syria has been forced out of their homes, 6 million as refugees in neighbouring countries, 1 million as refugees in faraway Europe, and another 7 million internally displaced. In Ukraine, out of a population of 42 million, nearly 40 % of the population has been forced from their homes as refugees in the 18 months since the outbreak of military hostilities. Over three generations nearly 6 million Palestine Arab Muslim population has been forced to take refuge outside the Palestine region, out of a total of 14 million. However, none of the intervening military powers have been held accountable for this catastrophic ‘collateral damage’ by friendly force, and ‘war crimes’ of the adversary.

That realpolitik rules the Muslim Ummah as well, is evident from their silence on Chinese atrocities on Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang; acquiescence in US, Russian, and Turkish military intervention in Syria; ignoring violent suppression of the Kurdistan movement by Turkey, Iran, and Iraq; and not reacting to raging civil wars and military insurrection in half a dozen Muslim predominant countries in West Asia and North Africa region; while voicing vociferous support for the Palestine cause against Israel.

Historical Realpolitik Relative to Palestine

Empirical evidence suggests that civilisation in the land of Palestine predates Judaism, Christianity, and Islam by more than two thousand years. Over thousands of years of its history it has seen the rise and fall of multiple civilisations and empires, Egyptian, Israel, Judah, Persian, Greek, Hasmoneans, Roman, Christian Crusaders, and series of Muslim Caliphates, last of which was the Ottoman Empire which disintegrated a century ago. Spread of Islam in the Palestine region began during the 7^th century when the Rashidun Caliphate conquered from the Byzantine Empire the Bilad al-Sham region, comprising modern day Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and southern parts of Türkiye.

World over, after major wars, it has been customary for the victors to redraw international boundaries to the detriment of the loser. Post defeat of the Central Powers Coalition comprising Germany, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria, in World War I, the map of Europe and West Asia region was redrawn in a major way.

By the Treaty of Sevres of 1920, the Ottoman empire was effectively dismantled. As far as its territories in West Asia were concerned, Türkiye accepted severance of its territories under several League of Nations Mandates to the victorious Allied Powers. Thus Mandates of Mesopotamia (Iraq) and Palestine (subsequently bifurcated into Palestine and Transjordan) was given to UK. France received the Mandate of Syria and Lebanon. Türkiye’s territories in the Arabian Peninsula were variously annexed to Saudi Arabia, and creation of an independent Yemen. Türkiye’s territories on the western coast of Persian Gulf were formed into British protectorates of Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Arab States of the Persian Gulf. Al-Ahsa and Qatif were annexed by Saudi Arabia.

At the end of World War II, the UN General Assembly adopted “United Nations Partition Plan For Palestine” vide Resolution 181 (II), on 29^th of November 1947, for disposing the League of Nations Mandate for Palestine. The plan was not implemented due to its overwhelming rejection by Arab countries and organisations, and outbreak of civil war between the Jews and the Palestine Arabs, the latter being supported by all the neighbouring Arab countries.  

The State of Israel formally declared itself as independent on 14^th of May 1948 and was granted recognition as an independent state vide UN General Assembly Resolution 273 of 11^th of May 1949, approved by a two-thirds majority vote.

After the Arab-Israeli War of 1967, the UN Security Council vide Resolution 242, unanimously approved on 22^nd of November 1967, called for “establishment of a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict, and termination of all claims or states of belligerency and respect for and acknowledgment of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of every State in the area and their right to live in peace within secure and recognised boundaries free from threats or acts of force.”

While Israel has formally accepted Resolution 242, the stumbling block to its implementation remains the refusal to recognise Israel as an independent state by 28 UN member states that include 11 key regional states of Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya.

The Sunni Muslim Arab world has made and lost three major attempts to destroy Israel by force, in 1948, 1967, and 1973. The Arab Muslim countries of Egypt, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco have already accepted the Israeli right to exist and have established diplomatic relations with it. Saudi Arabia is in advanced stage of talks for rapprochement with Israel, now stalled due to the Israel – Iran supported Hamas military conflict in the Gaza Strip. Shia Muslim Iran has stepped in to don the mantle of Muslim Ummah leadership to oppose Israel.

Ancient historical rights over a geographical entity have no place in the realpolitik world, it would lead to unravelling of most of the major countries in existence today, US, Russia, China, UK included. Israel – Palestine issue is too emotive and generates such passion that its resolution by force is not feasible, except through total annihilation of the adversary, an unlikely event in today’s realpolitik reality. While it may be wishful thinking for the affected states to abjure war to resolve the Palestine issue, increasing the component of peace in the cycle of war and peace is definitely a more practical option.      

Geopolitics of the Muslim Ummah

Of the almost 2 billion global Muslim population, 87 % are Sunnis, 10 % are Shias, with the remainder 3 % being from peripheral Muslim sects. People following the Muslim faith constitute 25 % of the total world population, while the combined GDP of Muslim predominant countries is US Dollar 30 trillion, that is 20 % of the global GDP. Abundance of natural energy resources in the Muslim predominant countries is the overwhelmingly key economic factor contributing to their GDP.

More than 90 % of the overall population in West Asia and Central Asia regions is Muslim, while it is only 40 % in South East Asia region. Leadership role of the Muslim Ummah has traditionally devolved on the countries from West Asia region, due to its high density of the Muslim population, and the existence of the holiest shrines of the Sunni as well as Shia Muslims here. Hence, despite South East Asia region being home to 31 % of the overall Muslim population, all the three major claimants to the leadership role of the Muslim Ummah are from the West Asia region, which is home to only 20 % of the overall Muslim population. The fierce competition for leadership role of the Muslim Ummah, is one of the key incentive for adopting fundamentalist positions against Israel, the only non-Muslim country in the midst of the Muslim Arab region.

Saudi Arabia influence and leadership over the Muslim Ummah flows from its custodianship over the two holiest shrines of Islam, Mecca and Medina, located within this country, and to its economy being aflush with petrodollars.

Türkiye’s claim to the leadership over the Muslim Ummah is rooted in its quest to regain the lost glory of the Ottoman Empire, dismantled by the British post World War I, and having the most powerful military in the Muslim world.

But in a most interesting course of events, the most powerful challenge to Saudi dominance of the Muslim Ummah is being mounted by Iran, a Shia majority Muslim country, in an overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim region. This has been facilitated greatly by the extensive presence of significant Shia Muslim population in the countries of the West Asia region. Iran is home to 70 million of the 200 million global Shia Muslim population. Apart from Bahrain and Iraq which have Shia Muslim majority of 70 % and 63 % in their respective countries, significant presence of Shia population in Kuwait 25%, Lebanon 36%, Yemen 36%, UAE 16%, Turkey 15%, Qatar 14%, Syria 13%, and Saudi Arabia 5%, provides a pan Arab world footprint to Iran. It is the unquestioned leader of the Shia Muslim Ummah due to being home to by far the largest bloc of the global Shia Muslim population, and as the custodian of the holiest Shia Muslim shrine of Karbala.

Israel, a non-Muslim country, is confronted by a formidable array of 14 Islamic countries forming three concentric Islamic crescents around it. In the first tier of this Islamic crescent it is bordered by Lebanon to the north, Syria to the northeast, Jordan and the Palestine Authority governed West Bank to its East, Egypt to its south, and Hamas governed Gaza strip and Mediterranean sea to its west. The Muslim countries of Türkiye, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia form a formidable second tier, while Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Oman, and Yemen, form the third tier of the Islamic crescent. 

Israel is the only country in this region with a grassroots democratic system of governance. Of the 9.7 million people residing within Israel, 73 % are Jews, 21 % are Arabs, and 6% are of different ethnicity. However, when taking the cumulative count of the population residing in Israel, West Bank, and Gaza Strip, there are 7.5 million Palestine Arab Muslims and 6.8 million Jews.  Another 2.7 million Palestine Arab Muslims are living as refugees in Syria and Jordan. Hence, keeping the Muslim predominant areas of West Bank and Gaza Strip outside its system of governance is critical to its very survival as a Jewish state, the raison d’etre of its existence.

The average population density of West Asia region is 62 per sq km, 424 per sq km in Israel, 107 per sq km in the West Bank, and 5751 per sq km in the Gaza Strip, while it is 892 per sq km when accounted cumulatively for the two named Palestine territories. The neighbouring Arab Muslim states, while fully supporting the Palestine cause against Israel, refuse to accept Palestine refugees owing to a realistic likelihood of their never returning to their homeland. This demographic ‘living space’ dilemma is one of the key issues which needs to be resolved for a lasting peace.

In the countries bordering Israel, except for Lebanon - which has a near equal percentage of Sunni Muslim, Shia Muslim, and Christian population - Syria, Jordan, Palestine Authority, and Egypt are all overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim countries. However, the dominant Islamic terror organisations, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Zaynabiyoun Brigade and Fatemiyoum Division in Syria, Hamas and Palestine Islamic Jihad in West Bank and Gaza Strip, that operate against Israel from these Sunni Muslim predominant territories, are ideologically and militarily supported by the Islamic Shia country of Iran. This outcome results from Iran’s quest to be accepted as the true leader of the Muslim Ummah. By arming and supporting terror fronts against Israel in the latter’s neighbourhood, it projects itself as the only country engaged in militarily contesting Israel.

The Impact of Geopolitical Rivalry on Palestine Conflict

The US led West Bloc established global world order is under active challenge by the informal Russia – China alliance. Shia Muslim Iran has been co-opted into this partnership as it is already engaged in challenging the West Asia regional pre-eminence of the US allied Israel, and Saudi Arabia led Sunni alliance.

US and Russia are already engaged in the ongoing civil war in Syria on opposite sides. The conflict in Syria, resulting from complex regional and geopolitical power struggle, is being played out at three levels. At one level, numerous rebel groups representing conflicting montage of Shia Muslim, Sunni Muslim, Christian, and Kurd religious and ethnic identities within Syria are engaged in fratricidal conflict with each other and the President Bashar al-Assad led Syrian government. Presence of significant Kurd minority in adjoining territories of Türkiye, Iraq, and Iran, and Kurd demand for an independent homeland has widened the conflict horizon. At second level, the regional rivalries between Shia Muslim Iran, Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel, has resulted in their intervention to safeguard their respective interests. At the third level, geopolitical considerations have led US to support disparate rebel groups of all hues to topple the President Bashar al-Assad led Syrian government, with Russia joining in support of the Syrian government.

Russia launched a ‘Special Military Operation’ into Ukraine in February 2022 to forestall its likely entry into the NATO alliance. Simultaneously, China has speeded up eastward expansion of its maritime zone into the South China Sea (SCS) and Straits of Taiwan, while proclaiming its intent to forcefully reunify Taiwan with mainland China.  Hamas, a proxy force of Iran in the Gaza Strip, has now launched surprise incursions into Israel on 7^th of October 2023. Hezbollah in Lebanon, another proxy force of Iran, is posing a tandem threat alongside Hamas, against Israel.

The Hamas military incursions have been strategically very well timed to take advantage of the deep rifts in Israel polity, disrupt the recently announced proposed India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC), and to stretch the US strategic resources at a time when the military operations in Ukraine are at a critical phase. The IMEEC, once operational, shall marginalise the Iran-Russia Central Asia trade corridor, as well as the Belt and Roads Initiative of China in the West Asia-Africa region. Thus, disrupting the impending Israel-Saudi Arabia détente, essential to the security of IMEEC, is vital to the geopolitical interests of China, Russia, and Iran. But the most important factor is that this operation is timed with the onset of winter in Europe, when its energy consumption rises by 36 %. Any comprehensive military action by US and its allies against Iran would inevitably result in blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime bottleneck for 30 % of the world energy supply, severely impacting the economies of EU countries. Increase in energy prices would be most favourable to Russia.    

The US led West Bloc has retaliated to the Russian offensive in Ukraine by providing extensive military equipment and economic support, while enforcing comprehensive economic sanctions on Russia to throttle its economy. To counter China, the US has redeployed additional forces in South East Asia, launched Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) in SCS and Straits of Taiwan, while placing trade restrictions in sensitive technology, and placing economic sanctions on selected companies of China. Iran is already under heavy economic sanctions by US led West Bloc, due to its clandestine nuclear program. In addition to resupply critical weapons and military equipment, US has now deployed significant offensive naval and air assets in the region to deter Iran and its proxies.

The common strands between the three currently ongoing conflicts in Syria, Ukraine, and the Palestine territory of Gaza Strip portend a greater catastrophe. 

The Financial Factor

The GDP in US Dollar of the leading West Asia regional powers is Saudi Arabia above 1 trillion, Turkiye under 1 trillion, Israel 564 billion, and Iran 366 billion. Their demographics is Iran 89 million, Türkiye 86 million, Saudi Arabia 36 million, Israel 9.7 million.

Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, the countries bordering Israel, are heavily dependent on financial assistance from foreign governments and international aid agencies, and to that extent are vulnerable to external diplomatic pressure. Sunni Muslim countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Türkiye, and UAE, provide limited financial assistance to the governments in Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestine Authority. The largest share of foreign assistance in the region is provided by the European Union states and the International aid agencies through UN aid programs. 

Iran covertly funnels military and economic aid to its proxy terror organisations in the region. In the past decade Iran has provided US Dollar 16 billion funds to support its proxy organisations in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza Strip, and West Bank, with US Dollar 100 million annual funding to the Hamas and the Palestine Islamic Jihad organisations. Approximately 70 % of financial and military assistance to Hamas is covertly funnelled by Iran. But it is coming at a heavy cost of reduced budget for civic infrastructure development, resulting in increased social unrest directly impinging on stability of the ruling regime. Iran lacks economic strength to support open war by Hezbollah and Hamas in faraway Palestine region. By conservative estimates such a war would cost Iran an additional US Dollar 50 billion. These militias will not be able to withstand prolonged military offensive by Israel, in conjunction with US, without external material support.

Israel economy also cannot sustain prolonged mobilisation as it diverts roughly 10 % of its economically productive manpower to military duty. Delay in offensive land operations in Gaza Strip is reducing the time window of military options for Israel. With a current GDP of US Dollar 564 billion, Israel shall be heavily dependent on additional financial aid from the US to sustain prolonged military operations.

Gaza Strip is a most densely populated urban conglomerate, housing 2.3 million population. By the close of the conflict entire area would have been razed to the ground, and its entire population shall be displaced as refugees. Conservatively, it will entail at least US Dollar 100 billion for reconstruction over next decade, and recurring annual expenditure of US Dollar 2 billion for supporting the refugee population over next five years. Just as in the game of chess, it is the destiny of pawns to make the heaviest sacrifices on the geopolitical chessboard too. The Syrian, Ukrainian, and now Palestinian populace are the most current testament to this realpolitik truth. 

Comparative Force Levels of the Protagonists

Israel military fields a strength of near about 170,000 personnel on active duty, with an additional strength of 465,000 reservists that can be mobilised at short notice. Currently Israel defense budget is US Dollar 24 billion, with additional annual aid of US Dollar 3-5 billion from the US. Its Airforce, air defence, field artillery, and armoured fighting vehicle assets are qualitatively and quantitatively superior to the combined military strength of the rival countries that border it. Comparatively, the infantry component is the weakest of the fighting arms in Israeli army. This should be its area of major concern, as the offensive into Gaza Strip perforce will have to be infantry predominant.  Its national defense spending is also greater than the combined defense budget of the major adversaries bordering it. Israel military is broadly equipped with indigenously manufactured weapons and military equipment, except in few niche technologies and equipment which it imports from US, a key ally.

The US has a permanent deployment of 55,000 US military personnel in the US Central Command, responsible for securing US interests in West Asia. In a formidable force accretion in the region, US has now deployed two Strike Carrier Groups centered on aircraft carriers USS Gerald R Ford, and USS Dwight D Eisenhower along with their escort ships, in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, with a combined strength of 15,000 personnel.  An Amphibious Ready Group with an overall strength of 4000 marines and naval personnel, based on amphibious assault ships USS Bataan, USS Carter Hall, and USS Mesa Verde, carrying armoured vehicles, and an array of fighter aircrafts and attack helicopters has also been redeployed towards the Arabian Sea and Mediterranean Sea. Another 2,000 specialised troops have further been earmarked for forward deployment in the West Asia region. Additional fighter and bomber aircraft squadrons, alongwith early warning, electronic warfare, and other special mission aircrafts have also been deployed in the West Asia region. The US has the surge capacity to double the present force levels in the region in two month time frame.

Iran’s active duty military strength is 610,000, additional reservist’s strength of 350,000, and has an annual defense budget of US Dollar 25 billion. Iran has over a period of the last decade developed a strong indigenous base in research, development, and manufacturing of drone swarms and rocket arsenal with long reach. These are a potent force multiplier in the covert asymmetrical warfare being engaged by it in the West Asia region to promote its national interests. In addition, Iran allied proxies bordering Israel, field an irregular force of approximately 40,000 active fighters in Lebanon, 10,000 fighters in Gaza Strip, 5000 fighters in Syria, and 2000 fighters in the West Bank. Geographically, Iran has a deployed potential to strike the entire length and breadth of Israel with massed drones and surface rocket firepower available with its proxy forces bordering Israel.

Gaza Strip with a total surface area of 365 sq km, bounded within a land border of 51 km with Israel, 11 km with Egypt, and a 40 km coastline along the Mediterranean Sea, has a 300 to 500 km length of sub-surface tunnel network constructed by Hamas, making it perhaps the largest known subterranean manmade infrastructure. This is a tremendous force-multiplier for Hamas.

Hamas Military Operation in Israel

The strategic aim of the Hamas military incursions into Israel was to break the carefully nurtured aura of invincibility cloaking the Israeli military, to force the Israeli hardline leadership to the negotiation table for a negotiated peace settlement of the Palestine issue, and bring the sidelined Palestine issue back on the international centre stage.  The key aspects of the plan were to launch multiple military incursions simultaneously, seize and bring back substantial civil and military hostages, and cause maximum personnel casualties and destruction within Israel.

Extensive technical and human intelligence resources were deployed over a period of one year, to gather vital intelligence for breaching and securing the formidable border defence infrastructure, grasp deployment and modus operandi of border defence force personnel, neutralising earmarked Israeli first response force, and identification of border settlement to be targeted.

Small Teams were selected for different locations for breaching the border fence, securing border posts, laying ambush to neutralise first response force, targeting identified border settlements, transporting seized hostages to Gaza Strip, and stay behind teams to prolong the duration of operations. Teams were trained separately at foreign locations to maintain security of information. Extensive briefing and rehearsals were conducted. 

The tactical plan was minutely planned and highly innovative, employing earth moving equipment, medium high mobility vehicles, motorcycles, paramotor gliders, armed and surveillance drones, communication jammers.

Special cells were created for executing Information Warfare (IW). Operations Teams were equipped with body worn cameras for live transmission of camera feed to a centralised IW operations room.

Post military operations strategy was equally innovatively planned. It was heavily premised on inviting a strong military response from Israel. To ensure a brutal response from Israel, the teams earmarked to target Israeli border villages were specially tasked to inflict and record heinous atrocities.

The Hamas military operation succeeded in achieving all its assigned objectives. There was complete strategic and tactical surprise. All targeted Israeli border posts were completely destroyed, military personnel manning them were killed or captured, all weapons platforms and technical equipment was destroyed. Israeli first response forces took several hours to respond, and were successfully neutralised, leading to capture of some senior Israeli military officers. Nearly 1400 Israeli civil and military personnel were killed, more than 200 Israeli and foreign citizens were seized as hostages and successfully transported inside Gaza Strip. It took Israeli military more than three days to clear its territory from Hamas intrusion. Failure of the vaunted Israeli intelligence agencies, and initial mauling of its military by an irregular force was splashed across the world. Israel was traumatised by initial reverses suffered by its military. Even more devastating was to witness the video feeds of the brutalities inflicted on its citizens, small babies, women, the elderly, and the handicapped.

The military adage ‘no plan survives contact with the enemy’ holds true for the Hamas plan as well. The post military operation script has been turned on its head.

The most unexpected reaction was the surprisingly swift and strong military response of the US by deploying two naval Strike Carrier Groups, an Amphibious Ready Group and host of offensive air assets in the Mediterranean region. It has unnerved Iran and its proxies, as evident by their backtracking on the initial threat to execute the Israeli hostages. It has also reduced the clamour for joint action in the Arab Muslim world.

The second surprise is the Israeli resolve to completely decimate Hamas and its infrastructure in Gaza Strip, its willingness to shoulder world opprobrium for inflicting heavy death and destruction on innocent civilians inside Gaza Strip, its refusal to negotiate for release of hostages held by Hamas and its allies, and its continuing to undertake strong offensive actions inside Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Syria, despite repeated threats from Iran and its proxy Hezbollah from Lebanon and Syria, to widen the conflict horizon.

The Future Perspective

Any major offensive action by Hezbollah against Israel will lead to an open conflict between the two adversaries. The additional US forces deployed in the Mediterranean region, alongwith Israel air superiority, are adequate to isolate the theatre of battle from external military influence. It will dent Iran’s ability to replenish war equipment of its proxy militias in Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria. Comprehensive destruction of Hezbollah and Hamas will unravel Iran’s carefully developed regional dominance architecture.

Iran economy is under major stress and cannot sustain major military operations outside its land borders. Iran is also wrecked by internal dissensions and social unrest due to repressive government policies and weak civic infrastructure. External military intervention in faraway Palestine in support of Sunni Muslim Palestine is strongly opposed by major sections of the domestic Shia Muslim society, and would result in further deterioration of the internal security situation. Hence, major intervention by Iran and its proxies in Lebanon and Syria, as also by any other Arab Muslim country is unlikely, despite rhetoric. 

Russia lacks adequate combat power for effective military intervention against Israel and US in a hot war in the Mediterranean region. Major military intervention by Russia in Palestine region shall shift the centre of gravity of its full spectrum rivalry with US, from Ukraine to Palestine region, which is not in strategic interest of Russia. Russian military intervention in support of Iran backed militia in Palestine region is most unlikely, as it would weaken its strategic focus on the Ukraine battlefield. The reported deployment of Chinese naval assets in the Arabian Sea maritime region is primarily to cater for evacuation operations of its citizens from the conflict zone. China is unlikely to participate in active hostilities in the West Asia region.

US force currently under deployment in the Mediterranean, in conjunction with Israel, is adequate to deter and even counter synchronous threat from Hezbollah and Hamas. However, the deployed US military force is not adequate for launching sustained military operations against main land of Iran. Hence, there is less likelihood of US and Israel broadening the conflict horizon beyond Palestine region.

Israel shall continue military operations to decimate Hamas as a military force in Gaza Strip. Delay in anticipated Israel military land offensive into Gaza Strip, is due to seeking additional intelligence and plan modus operandi to counter Hamas tunnel network, degrade combat potential of Hamas by continuous offensive air operations, and seeking time to recover hostages taken by Hamas.

An Indian Realpolitik Perspective

India has three primary interests in the West Asia region. First is the security of around 8 million Indians employed in the region, and the equally important US Dollar 40 billion foreign currency remittances by them to India. Second is the continuity of energy resources imported by India from this region, that meet 50 % current energy needs of India. Third is the need for India to push through the proposed India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC), vital for access to foreign markets for its growing economy.

A stable and quiet West Asia is in best interest of India’s current diplomacy of engaging with mutually antagonistic countries in the West Asia region, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey. Open hostilities in the region are likely to hit Indian interests and economy hard. Hence, it is in India’s best interest that the hostilities in Palestine do not spiral out of control. Qatar’s court passing death sentence for spying, on 8 Indian Navy veterans employed in Qatar, highlights the pitfalls awaiting India in the region.

India needs to actively employ its diplomatic capital to manage a stand down/unstated understanding to keep hostilities at a low level. India can ill afford to get involved militarily in West Asia, as it provides China geopolitical opportunity to escalate the standoff on India’s border with China Occupied Tibet (COT).