THE JOURNEY FROM UFO TO UAP AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

“The most ruinous thought to survival of humankind is the delusional belief of them being central to the scheme of the Brahmand; and its upshot, of a society or civilisation arrogating to itself the right to decide what is right for the world.” 

Backdrop

The international debate on the presence or non-presence of extra-terrestrials, their continuing intervention or non-intervention on earth, and their benign or malevolent intentions, is already seven decades old. What adds urgency to this issue now is the sudden fillip imparted to this deliberation by US Government public admission of implied uncertainty in rationalising some of these events, in place of the earlier comprehensive denials.

This change in stance of the US Government comes close on the heels of the deteriorating internal and external security environment being encountered by the three countries with the most strategic clout, US, China, and Russia. The fears of a global conflagration owing to an unwitting misstep have suddenly become all too real.

The reluctance of reputed think tanks and individuals from the strategic domain, to be involved in this most controversial arena owing to apprehension of being stigmatised as conspiracy theorists, portends a bleak geopolitical progression.

The combined outcome of the two events has the potential to impact the security and well-being of all humankind and is a situation with no known parallel. The criticality of the subject necessitates relinquishing the existing hands off attitude, and analysing it through a mature and offbeat approach.

Burden Of The Most Delusional Humankind Belief

The estimates of galaxies in the Brahmand (Universe) vary from 200 billion to 2 trillion, with each galaxy occupying an expanse from 3000 light years (LY) to 300,00 LY, with inter-galactic gaps of trillions of LY. The enormity of these figures may sink in when we compare it with the figures of the entire human race numbering mere 8 billion, and the earth being just under 13,000 kilometre across!

Our own Akash Ganga (Milky Way) is a spiral galaxy, 120,000 LY wide, comprising roughly 300 billion stars. This comprises only 10% mass of the Akash Ganga, with balance 90% mass being the conjectured, hypothesized but not proven, ‘Dark Matter’. Our Solar system is located in one of the minor spiral arm, Orion Arm, about 28,000 LY from the galactic centre. Our galaxy itself lies towards the outer edge of the of the Virgo Supercluster, which in turn lies on the outer edge of the Laniakea massive Supercluster.

Theoretically it is probable that a million planets within the Akash Ganga may potentially support intelligent life forms. Even humankinds conceited search for extra-terrestrial life form, premised as it is on such life flourishing only in Earth like environment conditions, has so far identified 24 super habitable Earth like planets within the home galaxy.

Under the circumstances, the belief of humankind being central to the existence of the entire Brahmand, by virtue of being the only intelligent life form, may rightfully be termed as the most delusional belief. This observation gains further depth, when we understand that even the ‘facts’ stated above are widely varying estimates, with astronomical ‘experts’ and physics theorists unable to come anywhere close to reaching a consensus. The planets in our Solar system is a case in point.

In 399 BCE, Socrates was sentenced to death for propagating the heliocentric model of the Solar system as against the geocentric belief held by the Vatican Church. It would take another two centuries, to mid-16^th century, that the western scientific fraternity accepted the heliocentric model. Whereas the geocentric model recognised seven planets, Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn, the heliocentric model premised the presence of six planets, Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn. Since then the accepted number of planets has rapidly varied between six to eleven planets, before veering down to the current 21^st century contested thought of there being 8 planets.

Against the lack of knowledge of these cosmic scale uncertainties, and where the scientific community is challenged to be certain of even the number of planets within the solar system, widely varying from six to eleven planets, its intriguing for the humankind to be so firm in its centrality in the cosmic scheme of things. 

The Coloured World View

In a similar vein there exists a two thousand year old fallacious belief within China to regard itself as the centre of the Universe, the Central Flowery Kingdom, the only ‘Civilisation’ on Earth, and its ruler as T’ien-Tzu, the Son of Heaven. This is propelling it into aggressively expanding its geographical boundaries, thus, bringing it into conflict with nearly all its neighbours.

During the medieval era, the leading European powers launched expeditionary forces into the far away Palestine region of West Asia, by propagating the fallacious theory of the ‘Crusades’ to save Christianity from Islam. This was closely followed by the colonial era European powers promoting the ‘White Man’s Civilisation Burden’ to colonise half the world from the 18^th to beginning of the 20^th Century.

In the more recent past, the struggle for world dominance between the competing Communist and Capitalist ideologies kept the world destabilised for greater part of the 20^th century. Now the US led West Bloc and China are engaged in global rivalry to keep the ‘Free World safe from Great Power hegemony and economic exploitation.’

The acceptance and aggressive propagation of delusional ideas by human societies through time, without thought to the absurdity or irrationality of the belief, is indeed unnerving.

The Journey From UFO To UAP

The search for extra-terrestrial intelligent life form, and its corollary, of humans themselves being study matter for alien beings, also comes in this genre of absurd presumptuousness. While private individuals and organisations have persevered for seven long decades in alleging Governments of withholding information on extra-terrestrial interaction on Earth, the Governments across the globe have been seriously challenged in rebutting the alleged ‘bogey’. As things stand at present, the likelihood of a ‘extraterrestrial smoking gun’ being produced as evidence is uncertain.  

The US, Canada, UK, Australia, Sweden, Denmark, Greece, Russia, and China are some of the countries known to have documented and investigated UFO sightings. The US investigation records have been most comprehensive, starting from Project Sign (1948), Project Grudge (1952), Project Blue Book (1952 -1969) that recorded 12,000 events, Robertson Panel (1952), Condon Committee (1966), Advanced Aviation Threat Identification Program (2007-2012), and the ongoing Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Task Force.

While there are conflicting standpoints on the existence of UFOs, three aspects stand out. The first is, that no Government has accepted on record about the provenance of the UFOs. The only change that has occurred in the past seven decades is the change of nomenclature of the investigations from UFO to UAP.

The second and more interesting aspect is, that the prolonged and extensive effort being employed over seven decades to investigate a ‘non-existing phenomenon’ or ‘non-existence’ of intelligent alien life forms, by itself indicates to high sensitivity of the matter and its great impact on national security.

But the most intriguing aspect is the sudden spurt in high level interventions, signalling a potential change in US Government stance, coming as it does after seven decades of official obfuscations on the subject. It began with the US Congress demanding and getting a report from their national intelligence agency in 2020, wherein it was acknowledged for the first time, that a few of the investigated UAP events defy explanation as they lie beyond the known frontiers of science and technology. Two years later, in 2020, the US House Intelligence sub-committee on Counterterrorism, Counterintelligence and Counterproliferation held inconclusive public hearings on the subject. Now in August 2023, the US House Oversight subcommittee on National Security, Border and Foreign Affairs is engaged in public hearings on the issue. Curiously, despite the ongoing antagonism between the two rival political organisations, both the hearings have bi-partisan support.

These indicators of a probable shift in official stance are coming at a time when the overall international security environment is rapidly deteriorating. The two parallel developments need complementary analysis.  

Implications Of An Anarchic World Order

The UN is no longer an organisation representative of the emerging world order or even having equitable regional representation in its all-powerful Security Council. Coupled with the five ‘Great Powers’ of the UN themselves actively flouting its rules of international behaviour, as evidenced by their involvement in overwhelming majority of the ongoing international conflicts across the globe, the UN Security Council decisions lack moral authority. In practise the UN rule based world order has deteriorated into an anarchic world order. Hence, the inability of the UN to effectively address the Ukraine – Taiwan geopolitical situation from spiralling into a global conflagration.  

Commencing with the launch of the Russian ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine, on 24^th of February 2022, within a year and half, the world waits with bated breath as the US led West Bloc is engaged in a no holds barred fight for global supremacy, just short of entering into direct military combat, against the China-Russia combine.

Economically, this confrontation is having a debilitating impact on all the protagonists, front end as well as back end, with serious consequences for the rest of the globe as well. Inflation, depreciation of national currencies, sharp downturn in manufacturing industry and trade, enhanced budgetary support for greater combat readiness and refugee burden, increased cost of food grains and energy supplies, resourcing supply chains of critical minerals, all combined are leading to unsustainable pressures on the world economies. Something is bound to give way.

Militarily the confrontation is inexorably spreading with the West Bloc arming Ukraine with weapons capable of reaching into the heart of Russia, that is Moscow. Russia is already positioning its sponsored irregulars against the vulnerable 65 kilometre wide Suwalki Gap in Poland. Implied threat to Poland, which currently has the strongest field army amongst NATO members other than the US, is an open challenge to the West Bloc. US lacks realistic combat power to retaliate against a potential Russian strike in Europe and counter simultaneous Chinese offensive against key US interests in maritime region bordering South China Sea, and looks at harnessing India into joining its war effort against China.

Political expediency too is at its peak in the key protagonists, US, China, and Russia. All the three leaderships are facing unprecedented political challenges. Political concerns are overriding national interests.  

The geopolitical situation is extremely volatile on all counts and ripe for an upward spiral. The threat of the conflict spiralling into nuclear exchange is ever increasing with each new offensive step, it needs just one misstep.

Overview of India’s Strategic Environment

India is faced with unprecedented challenges in its near and far abroad. India’s immediate neighbourhood in the South Asian sub-continent, from Afghanistan to Pakistan to its west, China Occupied Tibet (COT) and Nepal to its north, Myanmar and Bangladesh to its east, and Sri Lanka to its south, is awash in deep rooted internal strife or under foreign military occupation.

The most critical to India’s interest is the state of Pakistan which is on the brink of becoming a failed state. Collapse of Pakistan endangers the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a vital cog in the geopolitical and geoeconomics security needs of China. It shall invariably drag the two adversaries into open confrontation. India, to its detriment, is also faced with an acute disparity in its strategic power equations against China. At this juncture, the support of the West Bloc is critical to India to keep China at bay.

While India holds vital importance in West Bloc strategic calculus to take on China, it is equally pertinent that India’s rising economy and its punching above its strategic clout in the international fora is viewed as a nascent threat by influential sections in the West Bloc.

But what should be of supreme concern to India is its fast deteriorating internal security environment. Upstaging of the decades old political order, and the upcoming general elections in the country, have already engulfed it in anticipated, and even inevitable, sectarian violence. India’s economic growth, critical to support its burgeoning billion plus population, is vulnerable to deteriorating global geopolitical dynamics. To add to India’s disadvantages, its military is undergoing top to bottom restructuring, temporarily degrading its combat power to defend the national interests in the near and far abroad. Without an iota of doubt it’s big VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) situation for the country.

With limited budgetary resources, and swiftly changing security dynamics, India cannot afford to continue with its traditional reactive stance. The need of the hour is to adopt a proactive approach, prioritise its future course of action, resolve its debilitating internal sectarian conflict, and adopt a nuanced geopolitical stance that prevents it from being dragged into the coming global wars.

Implications for India

In the whole of the UFO/UAP saga there is clarity on at least one aspect. It is the existence of combat grade technologies, that are so far advanced that by themselves they can be a battle winning factor. Research and development in advanced technologies is one of the weakest link in India’s Comprehensive National Power. India needs to skip the current stage of technological, and scientific research and development to concentrate its scarce resources on realising advanced future technologies.

The bipartisan support in US Congress to scrutinise the UAP occurrences, coupled with subtle indicators of a changed US stance on the subject, adds fillip to the whole saga. But what is disconcerting, and should be a cause for serious concern, is this happening in the backdrop of a volatile geopolitical environment. The outcome of the UFO/UAP saga needs careful monitoring, the repercussions for our security are grave. India must create an apex agency staffed with the best technical, scientific, and military minds to study all aspects of this phenomenon and guide the government on future course of action.

India’s apex decision making apparatus must transform to adopt a proactive approach in all geoeconomics, and geopolitical fields to safeguards its key interests. Avoiding to be sucked into direct military combat in the global confrontation looming on the horizon, should be its primary diplomatic objective.  

India also has to play a decisive role, in conjunction with like-minded entities, in laying the framework for a new world geopolitical and geoeconomics order with a level playing field, to be ready for the aftermath of the confrontation.

India should actively participate in a meaningful international dialogue for formulating rules for exploiting space and other new domains and technologies. It also needs to assist to set up strong international monitoring mechanisms that enforce compliance by even the most powerful MNCs to established rules.

It is of utmost importance that the ongoing restructuring of India’s armed forces is finalised and implemented at a fast pace. The speed at which geopolitical events are unfolding, leaves no leeway to endlessly debate the restructuring of its military. It is imperative that internal resistance from entrenched interests is ruthlessly curbed through close political supervision.

Concomitantly, India has to prioritise strengthening its defence bulwark along its frontier with the COT, where it is highly vulnerable to coercive action by China. Adopting a strong dissuasive posture against China is an imperative.

India’s internal security dynamics are facing multiple threats. The ongoing sectarian strife within the country is unlikely to heal in the near future. It is already commonly assessed to aggravate further with approach of the coming 2024 general elections. However, for the economic progression of the country, implementing a healing touch to bring together all sections of society on a harmonious platform, shall have to be a key priority for the next incoming Government. 

Notes

UFO (Unidentified Flying Object)

UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon)

1 Light Year (LY) = 10 trillion kilometre

The spread of the Milky Way Galaxy is a phenomenal 120,000 LY x 10 trillion kilometre

1 Solar system revolution around the Galactic Centre covers a distance of 240 million (LY) x 10 trillion kilometre

(The above data is shared to highlight the enormity of the timescale and mass of the synchronised movement of billions of objects through such massive astronomical distances! and to think this is only reserved for humankind!!! That’s conceit )