THE DRAGON BLINKS AS EAGLE SOARS IN TAIWAN

 

“The Dragon’s quest for destiny, leads it to rarified heights,

To the Wise One it was ordained, that the Dragon shall go astray.”

 – “Elephant On The High Himalayas” by Col RS Sidhu

 

“In international arena perceptions do matter in influencing strategic and geopolitical thoughts and actions of nations, as the context is invariably set by the dominant geopolitical power.”  – Col RS Sidhu

 

 

Backdrop

The Joe Biden Presidency in US, touted as one of the weakest of the century, gave itself a simultaneous double boost on 2^nd April 2022. First, it announced the killing of Al Qaeda head Ayman al Zawahiri by a US drone strike in Kabul the capital of Afghanistan, conducted earlier on 31 July 2022. Second, it ensured the safe arrival of US Speaker Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan, ignoring publicly announced threats of real time military retaliation by China.

The first time that US and China jointly starred on the world stage was during their mutual ping pong diplomacy bonhomie of 1972, heralding the latter being brought in from the cold into the full comity of nations. Half a century later, on 2^nd of August 2022 the two superpowers were jointly the cynosure of all eyes again, but for different reasons, with their militaries arrayed against each other across the Taiwan Strait. The world wears nervous and even apprehensive looks, as they indulge in brinkmanship over Taiwan that has the potential of developing into a nuclear conflagration, reminiscent of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis between nuclear armed US and Russia.

Geopolitical Environment

This standoff occurs at one of the most geopolitically as well as economically inopportune time for the world. There is latent danger of the Ukraine quagmire escalating into a direct conflict between the US led NATO and Russia on one hand. On the other, the world economy is already on the brink of a serious recession due to the economic fallout of the conflict. 

The weak US led response by Western bloc countries to Russian military intervention in Ukraine has cast great doubt on its capability, even willingness, to support weaker countries facing threats from China in East Asia region. This perception of geopolitical weakness and strategic overreach of US, is influencing the small island countries of the Indo Pacific Ocean region to fall under the sway of Chinese sphere of influence. The Pacific Ocean has always provided a buffer to US mainland from the West. Spread of Chinese influence in Pacific Ocean region is therefore looked at by its strategic establishment as a looming threat to the security of US mainland.

Geostrategic Significance of Taiwan

China’s access to the open waters of the Pacific Ocean is currently threatened, North to South, by the island territories of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Philippines. Of these nations, Taiwan is the most vulnerable to threat from China. It is geographically separated from mainland of China by a narrow 130 kms wide waters of Taiwan Strait. It is relatively isolated internationally owing to weak sovereign position and not being a member of the UN. Its claims to sovereignty are contested by China. With demonstrated proclivity of China to unilaterally extend its dominion over maritime regions to its East, as is being witnessed in the South China Sea, it’s a matter of time that China adopts the same principles to extend its sway further into the Pacific Ocean region, once it takes over Taiwan.

Contesting China at its doorstep across Taiwan, an unsinkable aircraft carrier so to say, enables US to not only pose a latent threat to mainland of China, but also best showcases its resolve to prevent the island nations of Indo Pacific region to succumb to Chinese pressure.

Prelude to the Visit of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan

In 1979 US implemented a One China policy by recognising the Beijing regime as legitimate sovereign entity of all China. Simultaneously, it withdrew its recognition from Taiwan and closed its embassy in Taipei. An American Institute in Taiwan was established as NGO, to act as the defacto consular service provider on behalf of US Government. It was a glaringly open diplomatic subterfuge.

Prior to visit of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, Newt Gingrich as the US Speaker had visited Taiwan in 1997. Chinese criticism of that visit was informally fended off as not having official approval of the then Democrat Party Bill Clinton led US Executive while Newt Gingrich, a Republican, headed the Legislature body autonomous from US Executive. US legislators too have frequently visited Taiwan on official visits.

On 24 February 2022 Russia launched a ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine which is still ongoing. China’s open support to Russia has been critical to mitigate the adverse impacts of the retaliatory economic sanctions by US led Western bloc. A joint front of Russia and China, despite long term inimical interests, is a decisive challenge to the established world economic order which is the linchpin of the Western bloc geopolitical supremacy.

On 14 April 2022, a bipartisan group of six US Congress members visited Taiwan. Bob Menendez, Chairman of the powerful US Senate Foreign Relations Committee was also part of this US delegation. The visit also had publicly voiced support of US Executive.

Deciphering the Changed US Stance on Taiwan

The announcement of the visit of Nancy Pelosi, US Speaker to Taiwan, by her office, led to two significant developments. It invited an extreme official response from China with a direct threat of military retaliation. The US Executive unusually released a recommendation of its military advising against the visit.

Under these unusual circumstances, the eventual visit of the US Speaker to Taiwan on 2^nd August 2022 has global ramifications. There is no denying that the visit has tacit backing of the US Executive. Nancy Pelosi is a strong backer of Joe Biden Presidency, and the visit has full bipartisan support in the US Congress. The official stance of the US Executive, that the US Speaker is autonomous from US Executive, may be taken as a mere fig leaf for diplomatic consumption.

The reading of the operative part of the official statement from the office of US Speaker on the visit is itself quite instructive, “Our discussions with Taiwan leadership will focus on reaffirming our support for our partner and on promoting our shared interests... Our visit is one of several Congressional delegations to Taiwan – and it in no way contradicts longstanding United States policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, U.S.-China Joint Communiques and the Six Assurances. The United States continues to oppose unilateral efforts to change the status quo.”

The official statement from the office of US Speaker on the visit, her meeting with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, her address to the Taiwan Legislative Yuan, despite fierce Chinese resistance, openly showcase to the international comity of nations US determination to back Taiwan against forced annexation by China and actively block spread of Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

US has resolved its dilemma, imposed by the Ukraine conflict, of prioritising Europe or its proclaimed policy of ‘Pivot to the East’. Countering China is its first priority. Unlike in the Ukraine conflict, the US has proactively and unequivocally thrown the gauntlet to China in East Asia. This is further reinforced through the joint statement by Foreign Ministers of G7 countries counselling restraint to China.

China’s Dynamics

Before proceeding further it is preferable to first understand two truisms of China’s internal power structure and its strategic mindset.

First, the interest of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its continued grip on China’s governance structure reigns supreme. The CCP looks at its armed forces as the biggest safeguard against internal threat to its rule, while silently acknowledging the contradiction of the same military being the biggest existential threat to their continuity in power. CCP has resolved this dilemma by exercising supreme control over the Chinese armed forces. Therefore the primary responsibility of the Chinese military is to safeguard the political hierarchy from its own people, and safeguarding the borders from external threat is secondary. Hence, their Joint warfare command and control structures, vital for success of overseas military operations, are hampered by lack of executive authority and political controls. This stultifies their decision-action matrix in a dynamically volatile situation such as presented by the visit of US Speaker to Taiwan.

Second, China’s strategic thought propounded by their famous theorists is all about indirect battle. To win the war without fighting is to them the acme of military leadership. The Chinese strategy is heavily premised on gaining psychological ascendancy over the mind of the opponent by inducing the latter to think China to be invincible. Hence psychological warfare to instill shock and awe on the minds of the opponent and sap their will to fight is a key strategy for China.

China’s very opening gambit of threatening a grave military response to the visit of US Speaker to Taiwan is a strategic blunder, as it leaves it no space for strategic maneuver. US Speaker’s visit is over and China has not been able to deliver on its public threat of military action. No matter the severity of military action, if any, China undertakes post the visit. The damage to its geopolitical standing for the foreseeable future is irretrievable.

What shall be the most galling for China’s leadership is that Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen has stood firm against all Chinese threats. Overall China’s propaganda induced myth of being a world power capable of challenging US dominance lies exposed. The Chinese leadership is finally the victim of the success of its own propaganda, an unmitigated fiasco of its own geopolitical miscalculations.

Likely Geopolitical Impact

While individually the 82 year old Nancy Pelosi comes out as the strongest leader from this episode, as it was her personal safety which was at stake, at one stroke it has enabled the weak looking POTUS to regain lost ground geopolitically for the country.

Just two months earlier the Russian and Chinese nuclear capable strategic bomber aircrafts had undertaken a joint air patrol very close to the air defense identification zone of South Korea and Japan, necessitating scrambling of Japanese air force fighter aircrafts, even when the US President and other foreign heads of state of the Quad countries were present in Japan for joint deliberations. This symbolic but unheard of deliberately provocative act had set off alarm bells across the world.

With Russia mired in Ukraine conflict, an isolated China is now being challenged in its own front yard by the US. This will adversely impact Chinese attempts at establishing its footprint in the island nations in the Indo Pacific region, as well as further marginalise its influence in ASEAN countries.

China’s attempts at escalating the military situation in Taiwan, post Nancy Pelosi visit, will be heavily cautioned by anticipated retaliatory economic sanctions by US. Chinese economy, despite the orchestrated hype, is in deep trouble facing widespread collapse of its provincial banking infrastructure and the massive sub-prime mortgage crisis in its housing sector. With an already sub-performing economy, such sanctions may act as the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back.  

Conversely, the event has placed the leadership of China on the horns of an action dilemma. Losing face, that too on a global stage, is a mortal sin in East Asian culture. The 20^th CCP Congress is round the corner, where the decision to accord an unprecedented third term to the current leadership is due to be taken. It places enormous pressure on Xi Jinping to take judicious action which satisfies the internal nationalist constituency without imperiling its fragile economy.

There shall also be an impact on the China-Russia combine power dynamics, which post Ukraine had become heavily biased in favour of China. It will further spur them to speed up their joint strategy to marginalise US grip on global finance institutions. 

The contest for global supremacy between the US led established world order and the joint challenge by China and Russia is well under way.

First published in Frontier India

https://frontierindia.com/nancy-pelosi-visit-the-chinese-dragon-blinks-as-the-u-s-eagle-soars-in-taiwan/