THE BRAHMOS IN PAKISTAN – A RANGE OF SCENARIOS

 

“In a volatile geopolitical environment, such as present along India’s borders, even accidents have the potential to promote national interests…” – Veteran Col RS Sidhu

 

Relevant Facts of the Incident

An unarmed Indian Brahmos supersonic cruise missile gets launched from Sirsa, Haryana at 091843 hrs in general direction of Mahajan, flying on approximate magnetic bearing 225 degree for near 80 kms, in a flight time of 1 minute 20 seconds.

Suddenly the missile veered nearly 100 degrees off course onto a flight path close to 325 degrees magnetic bearing, flying 124 kms in Pakistan airspace for 3 minutes and 44 seconds before land fall at Mian Channu, in Pakistan.

Mian Channu is located in Pakistan, close to Multan, a major cantonment housing strategic military installations and straddling CPEC choke points on Indus and Ravi rivers.

The missile flew a total flight distance of approximate 400 kms in a flight time of 6 minutes 46 seconds, at an elevation of 40,000 feet at velocity 3 Mach (3700 kms per hour).

Pakistan publicly reported the incident on 10 March 2022 approximately 12 hrs post incident.

India acknowledged the incident at 111833 hrs, post 72 hrs of incident.

Relevant Technical Parameters of the Brahmos

Brahmos is a ‘fire and forget’ supersonic cruise missile, embedded with ECM suite, can carry payload upto 300 kgs, has a range of 300 kms plus, fly at velocity of Mach 3 (3700 kms per hour), and capable of being launched from land, air, and sea platforms.

It is a two stage missile fueled by a solid fuel first stage and a liquid ramjet second stage, with advanced stealth technology, an inertial guidance system, and possessing lethal accuracy.

An Appraisal

Three probabilities are discussed in given order of priority.

 A Technical Malfunction

Malfunctioning of armament loaded with advanced electronic circuits, is not unknown. But for it to be launched during field test of electronic circuitry is highly unusual. Failure of its onboard guidance system is also within the realms of feasibility.

Either way, malfunctioning of India’s one of the most advanced and versatile offensive weapon system, possessing conventional and nuclear capabilities, is a cause for major concern, with strategic and financial implications.

Shelf life of such armament is also dependent on storage conditions and is subjected to periodic audits. 

A near 3 days delayed official response by the Government to a military accident with diplomatic connotations, in a volatile geopolitical environment, also raises its own sets of questions. 

Electronic Jamming

Brahmos being a ‘fire and forget’ intelligent projectile does not possess any command guidance link. However its internal electronics can be susceptible to high powered energy weapons. But such an action could also result in immediate detonation of onboard explosives or cause the projectile to collapse mid-flight and nosedive.

This factor is however not borne out by the stable flight path of the missile even after deviating off course. Nevertheless, providing protection to its electronics suite compartment against ECM activity and directed energy weapons may have to be looked at, if not already assured during design stage. 

Should We Look At The Accident As Geopolitical Signal  

In February 2019 India had launched a surgical airstrike on terrorist camps in Balakot, within Pakistan. Thereafter it is the first known launch from India, even when accidental, across International Border deep within Pakistan.

The fact of an offensive projectile from Indian territory having negotiated 124 kms within Pakistan airspace without being engaged by their air defence network, reflects poorly on Pakistan military Air Defence Ground Environment (ADGE) network operational efficiency. Probably this was the reason for Pakistan to delay announcement of the incident to more than 12 hours.

But the Indian reaction is even more curious. It took near three days to acknowledge the incident, despite the likelihood of a negative diplomatic fallout. Even if the launch was accidental, the possibility of an unidentified flying projectile moving at Mach 3 velocity at 40,000 feet in Indian airspace would have rung alarm bells in Indian defence establishment.

The landfall of the missile in Pakistan, close to Multan is also highly interesting. If India had intended to deliver a geopolitical signal to its adversary, then it could not have chosen a more significant target. Multan is a strategic military base of Pakistan, it straddles the twin bottlenecks of Indus and Chenab river along the vital CPEC corridor, and is under effective Pakistan ADGE cover. The accidental launch from India has with one stroke showcased its operational capability to effectively penetrate Pakistan ADGE to interdict CPEC. The message would not be lost on both Pakistan as well as China, which has equipped Pakistan military with its latest weaponry.

The timing of the accident is also ideal from the geopolitical signal standpoint. India’s diplomatic stance on the Ukraine conflict can result in its adversaries perceiving geopolitical vulnerabilities for India in the near term. Embroilment of Russia and US in the Ukraine conflict may make their intervention in any conflict along India’s borders a low probability during this juncture.

Additionally, India’s national security establishment had shared credible intelligence inputs, with Uttar Pradesh province security department, warning of distinct possibility of law and order situation in Uttar Pradesh on day of counting of votes by extremist elements. This had the potential of vitiating the law and order environment across the country, as also impact the terminal stage of recent state polls.  The aspect of intertwining of external and internal security environment of India by its adversaries, has already been touched earlier in the write up Internal Security Portends Republic of India 2021-25, which can be accessed on link  

https://valleysandvalour.blogspot.com/2021/01/republic-of-india-internal-security.html

The Brahmos accident preceded the assessed cross border sponsored law and order issue with major ramifications, by one day. However, it would be more appropriate to attribute its pre-emption to an alert law and order machinery.

Takeaway For India

When assessing the cumbersome reactive response of India to cross border sponsored terrorist attack on its Parliament in 2001, the well deliberated but reactive response by launching Balakot air strike in February 2019 to cross border sponsored terrorist attack at Pulwama, the advantages of a proactive geopolitical signal such as by the accidental launch of a Brahmos missile on 09 March 2022, are obvious.

There is stated deniability, it minimises chances of escalation, it very demonstratively showcases intent and strategic red lines of the country, and it very cost-effectively deters a probable cross border hostile event.

The Government has already ordered an inquiry into the Brahmos accident of 9^th March. Hopefully it will discern lacunae in military operational procedures, and also serve as a warning to the vulnerability of India’s national capital to rogue cross border missile strikes, seeing as it is a mere 500 kms from the international border.  It would indeed be most fortuitous, if we learn the right lessons from the accident, and one of the best lessons that could emerge is to look at it as a time for switching from the traditional reactive response to a more productive proactive stance.