TALIBAN MARCH TO KABUL AND BEYOND – PART III

 

‘It is easier to deny words but difficult to obliterate deeds; so appraising the actions of the Taliban, rather than focusing on their proclaimed words, is likely to provide a more effective reality check.’ – Veteran Col RS Sidhu

 

The Psyche of Afghanistan

Understanding the essence of Afghanistan is the first step to be au fait with its current goings on, while the gateway to understanding the psyche of Afghanistan lies in comprehending the all-pervasive dichotomy in Afghanistan. 

The Afghan culture is a primary mix of Turkish and Iranian ethno-cultural as well as religious influence. The original Iranian culture and empire was overwhelmed by the aggressive expansion of Mediterranean and Caucasian civilisations with their own distinctive ethno-cultural and socio-religious identities. Turkish cultural influence, on the other hand, continued to permeate the Mediterranean and Central Asian region right into Afghanistan.

The Pashtuns, being the predominant ethnic community, are generally taken to personify Afghanistan. Yet they comprise only slightly over 40% of the total population, and there are more Pashtuns living east of the Durand Line, in Pakistan, than in mainland Afghanistan.

The Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras combined together hold more than an equal demographic weightage but lag far behind the Pashtuns in political influence.

The Afghans are commonly perceived as independence loving, fierce and vengeful warriors, ruthless to boot and would rather kill than spare an enemy.  But understanding the deep meaning underlying their key proverbs shows another side to their psyche where, to achieve a goal, arbitration or inducements are the preferred instrument of choice over use of force…   

 ‘When the tiger kills, the jackal profits.’ – An Afghan proverb

 

‘Community is not created by force.’ – An Afghan proverb

 

‘Be patient with your enemies and forgiving of your friends.’ – An Afghan proverb

The Afghan is not only a fighter par excellence but also a romantic at heart, prone to being swayed by sublime prose. Religion holds an important function but is not the dominant role in their way of life. The call of their honour code may be rooted in primitive ethics but its execution is steeped in their culture.

 Much is made out of the Pashtun honour code, the ‘Pashtunwali’. But it too is tempered by the twin concepts of a just retribution that is commensurate to and should not exceed the wrong done, and the right to arbitration or the decision of a ‘Jirga’ or a ‘Shura’.

 The ethics of the Afghan honour code are equally matched by the rapaciousness of its leaders, leading to the biggest irony of all, where given word is the honour and yet government corruption is the norm.

Assessing the Afghan National Army (ANA) Collapse

Once the psyche of the Afghans is understood, the root cause of the collapse of the ANA is easy to grasp. The reasons are a mix of software (cultural) and hardware (weapons & equipment) based. 

Key ANA leaders were bought off by Taliban through combination of inducements and threats.

Family and tribal loyalties, rather than professional competence, formed the basis for appointing higher ANA leadership.

Training of ANA was certainly not the issue behind its collapse. Servicing of heavy weapons and equipment was outsourced to US military contractors. With their moving out, these became unserviceable! 

This issue also impacted availability of adequate air resources to support ground operations of ANA. This detracted from the viability of ANA to hold its own against the Taliban forces. 

ANA leadership was not kept in loop of outcome of diplomatic negotiations, thereby making them highly vulnerable to Taliban psychological warfare. 

The collapse of the ANA has resulted in a very large pool of highly trained fighting manpower becoming footloose in Afghanistan. The only skills possessed by these footloose soldiers is fighting. In an increasingly retracting economy their very survival depends upon selling their skills to the highest bidder. Amalgamation of this human resource into the Taliban Afghanistan Army is unlikely owing to prevailing economic, ethnic, and political ground realities.

The Taliban is not a homogenous armed force but an amalgamation of militias owing first loyalty to respective ‘Maliks’ or warlords. Various regions will willy-nilly be apportioned off as spheres of influence to be milked by the diverse components that comprise the Taliban. Power in Afghanistan in current situation flows from the barrel of the gun, and as the jostling begins for a greater share of the pie, the available guns for hire shall find a ready market.

Fissiparous tendencies, frequent revolts and insurrection shall therefore be the dominant theme in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future.

Appraising The Undercurrents in Taliban Government of Afghanistan

The sovereign aspirations of the Taliban are best understood in the context of the environment of dichotomy specific to Afghanistan. Very interestingly, while the Taliban delegation at the ‘Doha Talks on Afghanistan’ presented to the international community a moderate facade that mirrored the expectations of the world at large, the composition of the announced Taliban Government in Afghanistan is their real hard line face.

Almost 40% of its portfolio holders also appear prominently on UN list of designated terrorists. The nominated cabinet incumbents overwhelmingly hold pronounced fundamentalist views on freedom of religion, women’s rights, modern education, social and cultural norms and individual rights. The veil of moderation is already cast off.

The Haqqani group within the Taliban has secured the key portfolios of Interior, Refugees, and also gained a footstep in Intelligence, giving them control over the provincial government machinery and flow of foreign funds for refugee management as well as the sensitive subject of Pashtun diaspora in Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The last being the most sensitive issue for Pakistan-Afghanistan future geopolitical dynamics, as legality of Durand Line is always an emotive issue for the Pashtuns.

The Haqqani faction within Taliban for all practical purpose is the offspring of Pakistan, vociferous denials by the two notwithstanding. With Mullah Akhundzada the supreme head of the Taliban still safely ensconced in Pakistan, the latter has been able to maneuver a firm grip on the new Afghan government.

The Taliban cabinet is overwhelmingly Pashtun, with a mere token representation of other ethnicities. As the time flows, the exclusion of the strong ethnic minorities from governance structure and consequent dissatisfaction with distribution of spoils of power, will adversely impact the arbitration influence of Pakistan over Afghan affairs. This is bound to lead to fracturing of Afghan polity into anti and pro Pakistan factions, within the near future. A protracted civil war is in the offing.

Analysing Extent of US – Pakistan Collaboration

Pak Government has vociferously denied permanent deployment of US troops at Islamabad International Airport in Pakistan. However, these denials do ipso facto confirm presence of US troops flying out from Afghanistan, even if for temporary duration. But presence of civil inhabited areas adjoining Islamabad international airport makes it an unlikely site for undertaking classified air operations in Afghanistan and the surrounding region by US. Earlier such missions were being conducted by US from Pakistan air bases in remote Waziristan areas. 

The duplicity maintained by US in abandoning its heavy military equipment, but with vital components removed, continuing to maintain sanctions on Afghanistan, and uncertainties on its future attitude to geopolitical playoff in the country, are equally matched by the duplicitous conduct of Pakistan in providing undercover military support of its armed forces to assist in Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.

Nevertheless, it may however be prudent to assume a US-Pak financial cum military package deal for the purpose. Existence of such a package deal would also indicate towards a broader regional understanding between US - Pak - Taliban (Haqqani faction) for safeguarding US interests for quid pro quo US support in suppressing competitive factions within Taliban. 

Key to Geopolitical Interactions with the Taliban

It would be in the interest of the affected diplomatic players to note the geopolitical awareness of the new Taliban, as well as their ability to indulge in realpolitik, even when contrary to their ideological moorings. It is easier to deny words but difficult to obliterate deeds; so appraising the actions of the Taliban, rather than focusing on their proclaimed words, is likely to provide a more effective reality check.

The ideological abhorrence towards communism that was the signature mark of the Taliban in their first avatar of governance, is noticeable by its absence in their present geopolitical scheme of things. The Russian and the Chinese diplomatic missions in Kabul are conspicuous by remaining open, and proof of this observation. So also is the silence of the Taliban on the fate of the Uighur Muslims in China. The Chinese quid pro quo is already forthcoming with the announcement of the first tranche of aid worth US Dollars 31 million.

The safest bet for geopolitical engagement with the Taliban would be negotiations from a position of strength resting on subtle employment of a combination of inducement and workable threats, coupled with patience. In Western parlance, a policy of carrot and stick. The Chinese, who pride themselves on the inscrutability of their actions and historical patience, shall definitely find the Afghan Taliban as worthy competitors!

Making Sense of India’s Role in Afghanistan

Approximately six months prior, in February 2021, India and Pakistan agreed for ceasefire along LC, through backdoor diplomacy. The negotiations were finalised in the backdrop of Doha based talks on Afghanistan. Six months down the timeline, this ceasefire is very surprisingly still holding. It is this ceasefire which has enabled Pakistan to thin out troops from its eastern borders for clandestine deployment in Afghanistan. India acceding to a ceasefire that can be linked to degrading its geostrategic interests in the near region, and more critical, simultaneously assists its arch rival Pakistan to instal a government of its own choice in Afghanistan, does not stand scrutiny of logic.

That raises the logical issue of a tacit understanding between US – India vis-à-vis Pakistan. Wheels within wheels are churning quietly. Situation shall be much clearer by the middle of the coming winter, and the next campaigning season draws closer in Afghanistan. By then more realistic evaluations would have been made by competing powers, new coalitions would emerge and plans fructify for future course of action!!!

Currently India is scrupulously adhering to a hands off policy, waiting for the fog of geopolitical uncertainties to lift from Afghanistan. Impact of the actions of the Taliban Government on its core interests, and the headway made by Pakistan and China to further their own national security interests, will weigh heavily on the future course of action to be formulated by India in the changed geopolitical environment.