TALIBAN MARCH TO KABUL AND BEYOND - PART I

 

“Unless US reverses its decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, the latter will collapse to the dynamics of China-Iran-Pakistan alliance.” – Veteran Col RS Sidhu, August 2020, ‘Geostrategic Portends in Asia’.

https://valleysandvalour.blogspot.com/2020/08/geostrategic-portends-in-asia-2020-2025.html

 

A Brutally Frank Appraisal

US President Biden was brutally frank in providing the rationale for pulling out US forces from Afghanistan, that the US had intervened to safeguard the US mainland from terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan soil, and not to strengthen Afghanistan as a nation! 

The decision to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan had already been announced during the Presidency of Donald Trump. Thus it has bipartisan support in the US. The only discordant note in this national consensus is the US military-industrial complex which cornered maximum commercial gains from the reported US Dollar three trillion expenditure incurred by the US Treasury in pursuit of this never ending conflict. 

 

Current Scenario

Once the US had announced its decision to quit Afghanistan, Taliban takeover of the country was a foregone conclusion. The only uncertainty lay in the time required by the Taliban to assert their supremacy. Diplomatic support from China, Russia, and Iran, and covert operational support of Pakistan armed forces had made the Taliban a formidable fighting force.

The Afghan armed forces in their new avatar were the result of training and equipping by the US. So the major cause of the unexpectedly swift collapse of the Afghan armed forces may be attributed to the flawed policies and processes of the US. The serviceability of the major weapons and equipment with the new Afghan Army was outsourced to the US military contractors, who moved out along with the pull out of the US troops. Devoid of serviceable heavy weapons and air resources, cut off from information on US – Taliban deal, the Afghan military commanders fell prey to Taliban propaganda and swiftly cut deals with the latter to save themselves, leading to their phenomenally swift collapse.

The cycle of uncertainty pervading Afghanistan is however not yet played out fully. Taliban may have taken over control of Kabul, but the erstwhile Panjshir Northern Alliance is under resurrection, and the competing national interests of US, Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and India will have their own geopolitical fallout on the internal stability of Afghanistan and the surrounding region.

 

Opportunities and Challenges for China – Iran – Pakistan Combine

China, Pakistan and Iran are all totalitarian states, hence comfortable dealing with a neighbourhood totalitarian and fundamentalist dispensation in Afghanistan. Their goals coincide in ensuring a stable but more important for them, a compliant Afghanistan, to enable them to pursue their commercial and geostrategic interests.  

To the Chinese an Afghan government, dependent on its economic aid, provides opportunity to exploit the latter’s rich mineral resources, overland strategic link to rich in energy resources Gulf region, and a hedging against export of religious extremism to its sensitive Muslim predominant Uighur province.  

Pakistan looks at a Taliban government hoisted on Kabul primarily based on its operational support, conceding to its longstanding desire of achieving strategic depth against India, its arch rival.

 For Iran, a stable Afghanistan heralds commercial opportunities in terms of revenue earned from providing sea access to the latter, as also assist in safeguarding the interests of the Shia Muslims in southern Afghanistan.

There is no denying the fact of the Taliban being the creation of Pakistan through covert funding provided by Islamic countries and even China. 

However Taliban as a terrorist organisation and Taliban as the ruling dispensation in Afghanistan will be two different kettle of fish. 

The puritanical underpinnings of the Taliban ideologues, the power mix of foreign funds from Muslim West Asia, diplomatic support of powerful regional and extra-regional players and the trained manpower of Pak Army is a heady cocktail. 

These players with diverse geopolitical interests were temporarily glued together by the common cause of seeing the backs of US presence from Afghanistan. The deed accomplished, how the geopolitical rivalries play will be an equally interesting watch. 

Potential for Rise in Conflicts of Interests

Traditionally Afghanistan has been an amalgamation of different tribes with first loyalty to safeguard interest of the tribe. The structure of the current Afghanistan Government showcases the intricate web of tribal interests. 

The Taliban hierarchy too is an amalgamation of competing tribal, regional, and extra regional loyalties, beholden to their foreign promoters and commercial interests. The only common thread which holds them together is their overt acknowledgement of promoting a puritanical religious ideology, a very tenuous thread indeed.  This puritanical ideology of Taliban will come under severe strain when faced with challenges of defending their state interests. 

The lure of Chinese Yuan in safeguarding Chinese investments and interests will clash with puritanical Islam dictates of siding with the oppressed Islamic Uighur community. This is bound to create ideological fissures within Taliban leadership. 

As the ruling dispensation, the Taliban Government will be able to access funds independently of Pakistan and to that extent will be less beholden to the latter. Taliban wielding the might of a state to safeguard Afghan interests, and with a large Pathan diaspora on both sides of the Durand Line, are sooner than later likely to find themselves in conflict of interest with Pakistan. 

North-Western and Southern Afghanistan has a sizable non-Sunni population ready to defend themselves against Sunni Pathan Taliban. This has inherent potential of sucking Iran into the Afghan ethno-religious fault lines.

The lucrative narcotics trade, an anathema to puritanical Islam, will also create ideological divisions and conflict of interests within the Taliban and between the Taliban and dominant regional warlords in Afghanistan. 

Defending and targeting Chinese commercial interests within Afghanistan will also be a highly lucrative contest that will attract large covert funds from extra regional powers. 

 

Russian Concerns

Having played a major role in maneuvering US out of Afghanistan, a tit for tat for earlier US actions that forced Russia to cut short its losses by withdrawing from Afghanistan, its time for a reality check for the Russians. Sunni religious extremism entering the Central Asian Republics bordering Southern Russia is now within realms of possibility.

From Russia’s viewpoint a stable but religious fundamentalist Afghanistan will provide greater opportunity, resources, and vigour to the Taliban dispensation to export their puritanical religious extremist ideology across their borders. This would lead to destabilisation of CAR countries lying across the southern borders of Russia.

 

US Interests

A conflict ridden Afghanistan would require Iran, Pakistan, and China to invest heavy resources to safeguard their respective interests. It would also necessitate for Russia to divert its attention and resources to safeguard its interests in the near neighbourhood.

Under the circumstances the US should have least interest in military intervention anew in Afghanistan. It's interests would be better served in targeting current and future Chinese commercial interests in Afghanistan through Afghan proxies, by investing minimum resources. Freed from the Afghanistan albatross from around its neck, the US would be able to devote greater resources and attention to pursue its global rivalry with China in more favourable geopolitical arenas.

 

Geopolitical Options for India

An Afghanistan, ruled by a religious fundamentalist regime, and at peace with itself does not suit geostrategic interests of India. Based on past track record it is likely to free fundamentalist forces to aggravate religious terrorism in J&K.

A fundamentalist but unstable Afghanistan provides an opportunity for India to make common cause with Iran and regain the vital land link to Afghanistan and Central Asia via Iranian port of Chabahar.

It also provides India with an opportunity to target Chinese commercial interests through proxies, and forces Pakistan to deploy substantial resources in keeping its Western borders secure. 

As far as India is concerned any fallout from Afghanistan can manifest in J&K only with active support from Pakistan. As long as India can make Pakistan pay dearly for any such misadventures, this should not be seen as a major threat. If Indian reactions are soft, well we shall have only ourselves to blame. 

Afghanistan should not and cannot be our main focus area.

“In geopolitics national interest overshadows the interest of the impacted people.”

-          Veteran Col RS Sidhu